Poonkulali Thangavelu 2015年8月31日
由中國這樣的國家對鐵礦石的巨大需求使大宗商品在過去10年中炙手可熱。現在由於中國中經濟的放緩，鐵礦石的需求很可能降低，因為行業出現供大於求的狀況。
為什麼鐵礦石對全球經濟至關重要呢？鐵產量，尤其是鋼材產量是發展中經濟體的基本資源，尤其是像中國這樣在短期内急速發展的國家。鋼合金對建築和工程項目至關重要。鋼鐵產品是一個國家交通運輸行業的基石，也是石油和天然氣的分銷設施。他們還廣泛被用到生產中，幾乎涉及生活各個方面。
中國經濟放緩的影響
中國已經成為世界上最大的鋼鐵消費國。其經濟繁榮，是由制造業和基礎設施和城鎮住房推動的，從而推動了對鐵礦石等原材料的大量需求。根據澳大利亞最大的鐵礦石開採商BHP Billiton的數據，中國的需求推動該公司的產量在14年間增加超過100%，由2000年9.5億噸增加到2014年的22億噸。
然而，現在中國的經濟在20年的急速增長之後似乎要冷卻下來，而且一些鐵礦石開採商已經受到了影響。中國的鋼鐵產量在2015年出現了1994年以來的首次下跌，上半年的鐵礦石進口也有所下降。原來通常内部出售的中國工廠現在的出口也在增加。
澳大利亞的另一鐵礦石出口商Rio Tinto預測隨著中國住房供應過剩的到來，中國的需求將會長時間沉寂。除非那些未出售的住房、公寓和商業建築出售完畢，中國的房地產行業才會推出大量的新項目。對鋼鐵無止境的需求最終降低。
鐵礦石供應的增加
隨著中國需求的下降，全球鐵礦石的供應穩定增長。主要的鐵礦石供應國包括澳大利亞、巴西、印度、南非，當然也包括中國。
根據高盛的調查數據顯示，澳大利亞2016年出口的鐵礦石將達到7.85億噸，高於2015年的預測。同樣，巴西明年的鐵礦石出口將達到4.11億噸，將會高於今年預測的3.67億噸。同時，分析人士預測全球需求在2015娘將下降1.3%，在2016年小幅增長1.1%。
在中國對鐵礦石的需求不斷增長的時候，全世界的鐵礦石開採商都通過增加開採和精煉設施提高產量。這種繁榮不可能是持續的，即使對一個熱門市場來說產量增長也太快了。BHP Billiton估計在2011年時鐵礦石的全球供應就超過了需求。鐵礦石的價格多年來一直未見增長。現在，隨著中國的經濟的放緩，價格沒有任何會增長迹象。
對價格的影響
從1980年到2005年，隨著中國這樣國家的工業化不斷加速鐵礦石的需求穩定增長，澳大利亞鐵礦石平均出口價格為30美元每幹噸。在21世紀初中國對鐵礦石的需求達到高峰，2015年鐵礦石的價格增長到96美元每幹噸。在頂峰時，鐵礦石的價格為180美元每幹噸。（而過去35年鐵礦石的平均價格為49美元每幹噸）
那些令人陶醉的日子現在已經結束了。Goldman Sachs分析預測鐵礦石價格將會在2017年初下跌30%。分析人士預測鐵礦石講個在2015年第三季度將會下跌到49美元，第四季度達到48美元，2016年第二季度達到44美元。
加拿大皇家銀行的分析師則持有樂觀的態度。他們預測2015年的鐵礦石平均價格為55美元每噸，而2016年則會再次上漲達到56美元。到2019年，市場開始複蘇，平均價格將達到65美元每噸。
長期前景
所以未來幾年鐵礦石的前景並不樂觀，但是行業的長期前景還是比較積極的。畢竟，發展中國家還有大量人口將會從農村搬移到城鎮居住。隨著印度、美洲和非洲國家的經濟發展，他們會大量需求鋼鐵產品。即使是中國，隨著其人口增長和工業化進程的持續，仍將是全球最大的鐵礦石消費國。
總結
隨著全球經濟的發展，鐵礦石的需求將會非常強烈。中國的經濟放緩導致對鐵礦石的需求下降，將會對鐵礦石價格在中短期帶來壓力。隨著供需平衡重新建立，鐵礦石價格將會恢複其長期上漲的趨勢。
Chinese Slowdown Impacts Iron Ore Market
By Poonkulali Thangavelu | August 31, 2015
Red-hot demand for iron ore (from which iron is extracted), driven by such countries as China, has fueled an insatiable global appetite for the commodity over the past decade. Now, however, with the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese economy (for more, read: What Happens to the Economy if China Deleverages), demand for iron ore is expected to diminish, with prices already tumbling as the sector faces too much supply for too few buyers.
Why is iron ore so essential to economies worldwide? Iron production, particularly steel, is a fundamental resource for a developing economy, especially a country like China that is experiencing rapid growth in a relatively short period. Steel alloys (formed by adding other metals to iron) are critical to construction and engineering projects. Iron and steel products are the building blocks of a country's transportation industries and its oil and gas extraction and distribution facilities. They're also found in a wide array of manufacturing, from appliances to shipping containers.
Impact of Chinese Slowdown
China has become one of the world’s largest iron consumers. Its economic boom, which has been driven by manufacturing and the country's gangbuster attempts to build infrastructure and urban housing, has been fueled by massive amounts of raw materials such as iron ore. According to BHP Billiton (BHP), a top Australian iron ore producer, Chinese demand has helped iron ore production to rise by more than 100% in 14 years, going from 950 million tons produced per annum in 2000 to 2,200 million tons in 2014.
However, the Chinese economy finally appears to be cooling off after some 20 years of fervid growth (see also China's Economic Indicators, Impact on Markets), and already some effects are being felt by iron ore producers. Chinese steel production was down in early 2015, the first such decline posted since 1994, and Chinese iron ore imports slumped for the first half of the year. Demand in China is becoming so tepid that Chinese mills, which typically serve an array of internal customers, are now exporting more of their production.
Rio Tinto (RIO), another Australian iron ore exporter, expects Chinese demand for steel to be muted for years, as China has to contend with a major oversupply of housing. Until this massive unsold inventory of houses, condominiums and commercial properties diminishes, the Chinese home-building sector has little incentive (and may have little capital) to launch many new projects. What once had seemed like an endless thirst for iron and steel finally appears to be drying up.
Growing Supply of Iron Ore
As Chinese demand slows, global iron ore supply keeps steadily growing. Major suppliers of iron ore include Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa and, of course, China itself.
According to Goldman Sachs researchers, iron ore shipped from Australia will hit 785 million tons in 2016, up from the 764 million tons expected in 2015. By the same token, Brazilian iron ore exports should reach 411 million tons next year, compared to the 367 million tons predicted this year. At the same time, analysts expect a 1.3% drop in global demand in 2015 and predict a tepid 1.1% growth in 2016.
Back when it seemed as though there would be no end to China's need for iron ore, producers around the world (including China) kicked up production by expanding mining and refinery facilities. There already have been signs for years that this boom was unsustainable, with production growing too quickly even for a hot market. BHP Billiton estimated that the global supply of iron ore overtook global demand somewhere around 2011. Iron ore prices have been restrained for years already. Now, given the slowdown of one of the world's hungriest economies, there's nothing on the horizon to suggest that prices will rise any time soon.
Impact on Price?
From 1980 to 2005, as global demand steadily grew due to rising industrialization in countries like China, the price of Australian iron ore exports was on average $30 (USD) per dry metric ton, according to BHP Billiton. And once Chinese demand went into its supernova stage in the mid-2000s, the average price shot rose to $96 (USD) per dry metric ton from 2005 through early 2015. At its peak, Australian iron ore hit a high of $180 (USD) per dry metric ton. (By comparison, the average price over the past 35 years has been $49 (USD) per dry metric ton.) (For more, see: How the Iron Ore Market Works.)
Those heady days are well over now. Goldman Sachs analysts expect iron ore prices could fall by up to 30% through early 2017. Analysts predict iron ore prices to average $49 a ton in third-quarter 2015, $48 a ton in the fourth quarter and to sink to $44 a ton by second-quarter 2016 (which is also their prediction for 2016's overall average price).
RBC analysts have somewhat of a rosier outlook. They expect iron ore prices to average $55 per ton for 2015 and even rise slightly to $56 per ton for 2016. By 2019, RBC expects a market recovery to get underway, with prices then averaging $65 per ton.
Long-term Outlook
So while the next few years don’t look promising for iron ore producers, the sector's long-term outlook remains fundamentally positive. After all, developing countries will continue to have millions of their citizens move from rural environments into an urbanized and industrialized mode. As India, African and South American countries continue to expand their economies, they will need iron ore and steel products. Even China, despite its current problems, should keep being one of the world's largest consumers of iron ore, as its population keeps up the process of urbanization.
The Bottom Line
As the world economy develops, it fuels strong demand for iron ore. The problem is when China, the biggest driver of this growth this century, finally hits a bump in the road and its economy slows down. A substantial decline in demand for the metal puts deflationary pressures on iron ore prices for the short- to medium-term. However, once supply and demand get back into balance, the price of iron ore should likely continue its long upward march.
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文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/professionals/083115/chinese-slowdown-impacts-iron-ore-market.asp