三種交易歐元的簡單策略

Alan Farley 2015年11月16日

歐元交易員對歐元區的經濟強度與其主要貿易伙伴對比進行投資。歐元和美元之間的關係使二者成為世界上最主要的外匯貨幣對，其低點差和廣泛的價格波動提供了大量的獲利機會。

雖然有很多投資EUR/USD的方式，但是有三個方法將持續有效。這三個方式可以被所有技術水平的外匯交易員操作，利用這些方式新交易員可以減小倉位控制風險而有經驗的交易員可以增加倉位充分利用機會。

股票交易員可以把這些技巧運用到歐元信託基金上，它將實時追蹤外匯貨幣對。如果你能控制額外風險，槓桿和反向ETF可也可以交易。ProShares Ultra Euro可以進行多空投資，但是交易量惨淡，每天平均只有24,283股。ProShares UltraShort Euro向做空交易員提供相同的槓桿和更大的流動性，平均每天交易超過70萬股。

買入或者賣出回調

EUR/USD價格會在兩個方向擺動並在一個正意見回饋回路中使價格從一個水平移動到另一個水平，這可以產生強勁的勢頭。然而，這種快速移動會在供求關係變化時快速結束，通常後入者將會在貨幣對趨勢逆轉被困住。

回調策略利用這一相反趨勢運動，鑒別出價格波動停止並重新開始趨勢方向的重要支撐和阻止水平。這些水平通常是之前的低點或者高點，也可能是斐波納契回調線、移動平均數和原趨勢的起始點。

突破買入/下跌賣出

該貨幣對經常在一段時間內在固定的範圍內徘徊，建立定義明確的交易區間並最終形成新趨勢，新趨勢可以上升或者下跌。有耐心的交易員通常在這些整合時期進行低風險交易以獲得成功。

獲得好的進入時間需要充分利用這個簡單策略。入場太早可能觸發逆轉。入場太晚風險會升級，因為執行倉位可能剛好位於新的支撐位之上和阻力位以下。通常在在小回檔位上升或下跌開放部分倉位是減少風險不錯的選擇。

窄幅波動入場模式

在上升或下跌的過程中會遇到阻力然後逐漸趨於穩定，這時價格呈現窄幅波段趨勢波動下降。巧合的是，這一階段正是突破和下跌的強烈進入信號。這是在窄幅波段入場的策略，嚴格止損以防大逆轉發生。

這種設定通常呈現在NR7價格線中，這個價格線是過去7個價格線中高低點波幅最窄的。在20世紀20年代的美國期貨市場觀察的首次使用中，這種簡單但是有力的模式預測出價格線將會擴展到一個相當大的突破或擊穿。這種方法的風險也較低，因為止損可以設定在離入場價格很近的位置。

總結

新老交易員都能執行這三種簡單但是有效的策略從而在重複的價格走勢中獲利。

3 Simple Strategies For Euro Traders

By Alan Farley | November 16, 2015 

Euro (EUR) traders speculate on the strength of the Eurozone economy, compared to its major partners. The relationship between the Euro and US Dollar (USD) marks the most liquid forex pair in the world, with tight spreads and broad price movement that supports a continuous flow of profitable opportunities.

While there are many ways to trade the EUR/USD pair, three simple strategies have been consistently effective. These can be executed by forex traders at all skill levels, with newer participants reducing position size to control risk while experienced players increase size to take full advantage of the opportunities.

Equity traders can apply these techniques with Currency Shares Euro Currency Trust (FXE), which tracks the forex pair in real-time. Leveraged and inverse ETFs can also be traded if you have the skills needed to manage the additional risk. ProShares Ultra Euro (ULE) offers double long side exposure, but it is thinly traded, at just 24,283 shares per day on average. ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) offers equal leverage to short sellers and greater liquidity, trading more than 700,000 shares per day on average.

Buy Or Sell The Pullback

The EUR/USD trend thrusts in both directions and carries the price from one level to another in a positive feedback loop that can generate considerable momentum. However, this rapid movement tends to fizzle out when the supply/demand equation shifts, often trapping latecomers in positions that will be excited for losses when the currency pair reverses and heads in the opposite direction.

The pullback strategy takes advantage of this countertrend movement, identifying significant support or resistance levels that should end the price swing and reinstate the initial trend direction. These levels often come at prior highs or lows as well as key levels defined by Fibonacci retracements, moving averages and the inception point of the original thrust.

Buy The Breakout/Sell The Breakdown

The pair often grinds back and forth within confined boundaries for extended periods, setting up well-defined trading ranges that will eventually yield new trends, higher or lower. Patience during these consolidation phases often pays off with low-risk trade entries when support or resistance finally breaks, giving way to a strong rally or selloff.

Good timing is needed to take full advantage of this simple strategy. Enter too early and the range could hold and trigger a reversal. Enter too late and risk escalates because the position will execute well above new support or well below new resistance. It’s often a good idea to reduce timing risk by opening a partial position when the pair breaks out or down and adding to it on the first minor retracement.

Enter Narrow Range Patterns

The pair will often rise or fall into a significant barrier and then go to sleep, printing narrow range price bars that lower volatility and raise apathy levels. Coincidentally, this quiet interface often marks a powerful entry signal for a breakout or breakdown. This strategy enters the position within the narrow range pattern, with a tight stop in place in case of a major reversal 

This setup often prints an NR7 bar, which marks the narrowest range price bar of the last seven bars. Originally observed in the U.S. futures markets in the 1950s, this powerful but simple pattern predicts that price bars will expand in a sizable breakout or breakdown. It’s also a low-risk entry because the stop loss can be set very close to the entry price.

The Bottom Line

New and experienced Euro traders can execute three simple but effective strategies that take advantage of repeating price action. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/111615/3-simple-strategies-euro-traders.asp