Casey Murphy 2015年11月24日
由於銅價跌到六年來的最低點使得全球大宗商品交易員都把註意力放到了銅價上。很多人擔心中國需求的下降將會導致長期的下跌。在本文中，我們將關註銅現價、銅相關資產和這一變化對最大出口商的影響。
銅的下降趨勢
觀察下圖，很顯然由於供需差異價格處於下降趨勢。更具體地說，亞洲和發展中國家和新興市場的需求疲軟使得供應過剩，而且這種趨勢在不遠的將來將會持續。從一個活躍交易員的角度看，我們希望看漲交易員保持觀望直到價格克服一些關鍵的支撐，例如50日和200日移動平均線（分別為藍線和紅線）。
費利浦·麥克莫蘭銅金公司
當分析銅市場時，許多活躍交易員自然的把註意力放到價格波動對全球最大的開採商的影響上。從圖表中能看出，下降趨勢開始在50日移動平均線穿過200日移動平均線並在下方時。最接近的支撐後面有幾次嘗試重新控制價格，但是50日移動平均線成為價格升高的主要障礙。要註意最近一次反彈12.54美元成為阻力位。最近幾週的反彈失敗表明下跌將持續並可能達到7.73美元附近的支撐位。看漲交易員要保持觀望直到出現上升趨勢。
阿伯丁智利基金
許多交易員在考慮銅的時候不會把智利這樣的南美國家考慮進去，但是他們應該考慮。從經濟學的觀點看來，智利和全球其他地區相比的競争優勢是採礦和生產非常迅速。事實上，該國接近20%的GDP和60%的出口由銅構成。看一下下面圖表，你會發現阿伯丁智利基金正在建立的下降趨勢中交易並且沒有出現在短期内結束的迹象。該圖同樣是50日移動平均數（藍線）阻止升高的例子。這附近的支撐位被活躍交易員視為對他們更換訂單的幫助。接近阻力位，交易的風險和回報自然下降，許多人會在50日移動平均線之上設置止損以保護倉位，最近這個價格是6.64美元。
總結
銅價最近移動到六年來的低點引發了許多活躍交易員的興趣，他們正期待反彈。然而，根據上面的圖表顯示，下降趨勢還非常完整並且阻力趨勢線和50日移動平均線表明趨勢明顯趨於下降。
Copper Continues Its Descent
By Casey Murphy | November 24, 2015
Commodity traders around the world turned their attention to copper prices given the recent move to six-year lows. The decline has many traders frightened that the slowdown in Chinese demand is an early signal of longer-term downtrend. In the article below, we’ll take a look at the spot price of copper, copper-related assets and even how the move is impacting the largest exporter of the metal.
Copper’s Downtrend
Taking a look at the chart below, it is apparent that the momentum is in the favor of the bears due to a discrepancy in supply and demand. More specifically, weak demand across Asia and developing and emerging markets have outpaced supply and it appears that the downtrend is going to continue for the foreseeable future. From an active trader’s perspective, we’d expect bullish traders to remain on the sidelines until the price is able to overcome several of its key levels of resistance such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (blue and red lines respectively).
Freeport-McMoRan
When it comes to analyzing the copper market, many active traders automatically turn their attention to see how fluctuating prices of the commodity impact on of the world’s largest miners. Taking a look at the chart, you can see that downtrend was started when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average in what is known as the death cross (shown by the black circle). The close below the support was followed by several attempts to regain control of the trend, but the 50-day moving average (blue line) acted as a strong barrier to moves higher. It is particularly interesting to note how the recent bounce off of $12.54 coincided with a move toward the resistance level. The failed attempt to move higher over recent weeks suggests that the bears will continue to add pressure to the downtrend and many are likely waiting for the price to close below the nearby support level near $7.73 before entering a trade. Bullish traders will likely want to remain on the sidelines until bullish signals appear on the chart such as a close above the 50-day or 200-day moving averages.
Aberdeen Chile Fund
When most retail traders think of copper they don’t usually automatically think of the South American nation of Chile, but they should. From an economics standpoint, the competitive advantage that Chile has over much of the world is that it is very efficient at producing mining and producing copper. In fact, approximately 20% of the country’s GDP and up to 60% of its exports are comprised of copper. Taking a look at the chart, you can see that the Aberdeen Chile Fund (CH) is trading within an established downtrend and it doesn’t appear that it is about to end any time soon. This chart is also a great example of how the 50-day moving average (blue line) can act as a significant barrier to a move higher. The commonly found resistance near this moving average is often watched for by active traders to help them determine the placement of their orders. Given the proximity to the resistance level, the risk/reward of the trade is definitely in favor of the bears and many will likely look to protect their positions by placing a stop-loss orders above the 50-day moving average, which is currently trading near $6.64. (For more, see: Commodities Are Pulling Brazil and Chile Lower)
The Bottom Line
Copper’s recent move to six-year lows as triggered an interest in the metal by many active traders looking for a bounce. However, based on the charts shown above, the downtrends are still very-much intact and the resistance of trendlines and 50-day moving averages show that the momentum is clearly in the favor of the bears.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/cotd/112415/copper-continues-its-descent-ch-cupm-fcx.aspx