為什麼美聯儲不去拯救股市？

年初股市暴跌，而道瓊斯工業指數也在本週四跌至三月以來的最低點。

但美聯儲官員並未對此表示擔憂。

大多數情況都不是這樣的。美國和中國的股市都出現了波動，有人認為這是美聯儲九月加息的原因之一。投資者一直期待著格林斯潘、伯南克、耶倫等歷屆美聯儲主席採取措施，說明投資者減少損失。因為一旦股市陷入泥沼，美聯儲官員就會趕來救援。

但這一次情況有所不同，美聯儲官員一點也沒有出來救火的迹象。

舊金山聯儲主席約翰·威廉斯表示：“中國股市下跌溢出到美國並不是個大問題。”

威廉斯在週一的CNBC採訪中說道：“很多人都會告訴你，中國股市只會影響到小部分中國人，而且對美國的財政系統沒有直接的影響。所以對我來說，系統性風險不足為慮。”

威廉斯指出，中國經濟的重心正由制造業轉向服務業，因此數據疲軟不足為奇。

週三，盡管美聯儲副主席費希爾表示全球經濟前景不確定性的風險在增加，但他否認了對中國的擔憂。他說最好的訊息仍然是美聯儲會在2016年將利率提升3-4倍。

費舍爾說：“與中國在全球扮演的角色相比，中美之間的直接聯繫無足輕重。只有在中國對其鄰國和世界其他國家的負面影響達到一定程度的時候，美國才會受到沖擊。”

他說：“其他的國家對我們的影響很大。”

波士頓帕提農集團的聯合首席經濟學家奈傑爾·高爾特表示，當市場波動劇烈時，美聯儲很難做出及時的反應。

他說：“沒有官員原因告訴大家情況很糟糕，因為這會激怒股市投資者。”

隨後，美聯儲官員強調，四個加息的基線預測不是“預先計劃好的”。

經濟學家們認為美聯儲的下一次加息會在十週之內，即三月15日-16日的會議期間，因為官員們很可能會堅持他們在本月底制定的政策。

大部分美聯儲官員認為，美國的國內需求仍然強勢，足以彌補全球的疲軟。在12月的會議中，美聯儲決定終止2008年以來的零利率政策，他們認為全球經濟和金融發展的下行風險在上一個夏天就已消失。

盡管全球通脹率仍然很低，其他主要央行也維持寬鬆曾策，但幾乎沒有人對美聯儲的加息政策表示不安。

美聯儲在12月重點解決低評級公司債券市場的問題，以消除投資者的不適。

與之相反，一些美聯儲官員表示，他們在尋找市場過熱的迹象。這說明美聯儲的反應太慢了。

高爾特說：“如果美聯儲依靠數據來做判斷，那麼他們就不會在三月加息。”

他還指出，第四季度的GDP增長預計將低於1%，而供應管理協會制造業指數表明該版塊在兩個月中會出現收縮的情況。

Why the Fed isn’t running to the rescue of the ailing stock market

The stock market is off to a rocky start this year, as the Dow industrials continued to slide on Thursday and touched a three-month low.

But there is hardly any sign of concern from any Federal Reserve officials.

That’s not always, or even mostly, the case. Stock-market turbulence, both in the U.S. and China, is widely thought to have been the main reason why the Fed didn’t raise interest rates this September, for instance. Traders have long speculated about a Greenspan, and then a Bernanke, and then a Yellen, put, referring to the option designed to protect investors from losses. The notion is that when stock markets get rough, Fed officials will rush to the rescue.

This time, there has been no sign of any Fed official wanting to put on a firefighter hat — if anything, it’s been the opposite.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said a spillover of China’s stock market declines into the U.S. wasn't “a big concern.”

 “A lot of people will tell you China’s stock market affects a relatively small share of Chinese citizens and doesn’t affect the U.S. financial system that much directly. So to me those are not major concerns in terms of systemic risk right now,” Williams said in an interview on CNBC on Monday.

Williams noted that China’s economy is pivoting away from manufacturing to the service sector and therefore weaker data weren't a surprise.

On Wednesday, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer declined to express much concern about China, although he said uncertainty about the global economic outlook has risen a bit. He said the best forecast remained that the Fed would raise interest rates three to four times in 2016, more than the two rate increases markets have penciled in.

Fischer said it was hard to know precisely how developments in China would play out.

“For the U.S., direct links with China are much less important than the role of China in the world. If all of China’s neighbors and other parts of the world are negatively affected to a considerable extent by China then that would be an impact” on the Fed, Fischer said.

 “The rest of the world matters for us,” he said.

Fed officials have a difficult time responding when markets are moving sharply, said Nigel Gault, co-chief economist at the Parthenon Group in Boston.

“No Fed official wants to inflame the stock market by saying their views have changed and things look massively worse,” he said.

Over time, Fed officials must stress that the four rate increases in their baseline projection is “not preprogrammed,” he said.

Economists generally think the next time the Fed could raise interest rates is in 10 weeks, at its March 15-16 meeting, as officials are widely expected to stand pat on policy when they meet at end of this month.

Meanwhile, signaling that rate increases might be delayed given market turmoil or a worsening global economic outlook “would just build in more volatility,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.

The majority on the Fed believes that domestic demand in the U.S. economy is strong enough now to power through global weakness. At the December meeting, when the Fed raised interest rates from the near-zero level that had existed since late 2008, officials said downside risks from global economic and financial developments had diminished since late summer, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

There was little concern expressed about market unease with the Fed’s decision to hike rates even as inflation remained low around the world and other major central banks were easing policy.

Officials dismissed market queasiness, which in December was concentrated in the market for low-rated corporate debt.

Instead, some Fed officials said they were on the lookout for signs of markets overheating, an indication the Fed was moving too slow.

If the Fed is data-dependent, then right now, they won’t raise interest rates in March, Gault said.

He noted that fourth-quarter GDP is expected to come in below 1% and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index has been signaling a contraction in the sector for two months.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

原文地址：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-fed-isnt-running-to-the-rescue-of-the-ailing-stock-market-2016-01-07