Joshua Kennedy 2015年12月30日
在1989年日本泡沫經濟達到頂峰後的25年裡，日本經濟一直處於泥潭中，只有幾個短暫的好轉，通貨緊縮、資產和一些商品價格的停滞或者下跌一直嚴重影響日本經濟。2013年，首相安倍晉三推出了有史以來結束通貨緊縮最大的舉措，統稱為安倍經濟政策的一系列刺激和改革措施。在2016年，有三個因素能決定日本經濟是否能健康複蘇。
工資增長
首相安倍曾向日本公司施壓提高工人工資，他相信這將創造消費者消費的良性循環，提高企業利潤並進一步創造工資增長的空間。相應的，執政黨將會在2016年4月將公司稅率從32%下降到30%。如果安倍能成功說服公司將節省下來的稅金轉變成員工工資，將能夠刺激消費，相應的將有助經濟增長。
增值稅
由於2014年日本增值稅的增加，消費型開支受到了幹擾。日本政府債務金額巨大，約占GDP的250%，因此政府盡可能的提高其收入。計劃在2017年將增值稅提高到10%。2014年的增值稅增加曾引起消費者的強烈反對，同時他們強烈要求延遲2017年的增值稅增加。2016年的消費者開支將會被密切關註以確定經濟是否能承擔來年的增值稅增加，這個決定將會在2016年年底之前做出。
日元的價值
自2012年以來日元的價值下跌了接近30%，這為公司盈利帶來了福音。日本生產型企業的競争對手主要來自韓國、台灣和中國大陸，日元的價值是其產品競争力的重要因素。日元疲軟使日本產品在海外的競争力上升，獲利的美元和歐元又換回了大量的日元，提高了本土貨幣計價的利潤。
日元疲軟的代價：降低許多日本進口商的購買力，尤其是食品和能源產品。而進口商品價格的上漲有助支持通脹，更高的價格也可能對需求有負面影響。日本央行必須盡其所能使疲軟水平能影響生產商但是不影響消費者需求。美聯儲加息使這變得更加困難。
安倍經濟政策必須實現
安倍經濟政策已經進行了一些有意義的改革。值得註意的是電力行業的自由化、跨太平洋夥伴關系和公司治理的變化。批評家認為需要做的還有很多，尤其是勞動力管理和移民領域。因為日本的老齡化和巨大政府債務，時間非常緊迫。2016年是關鍵的一年，將決定日本經濟是否能夠複蘇。
3 Economic Challenges Japan Faces in 2016
By Joshua Kennedy | December 30, 2015
In the 25 years since Japan's bubble economy peaked in 1989, the Japanese economy has struggled, with only a few periods of brief respite, with deflation, the stagnation or decline of prices of assets and many goods. In 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched Japan's most serious effort to end Japan's deflationary struggle, a series of stimulus and reform packages collectively known as Abenomics. In 2016, three critical factors will determine the health of Japan's economic recovery.
Wage Growth
Prime Minister Abe has pressured Japanese companies to raise wages for workers, which he believes will create a virtuous circle of increased consumer spending, resulting in higher corporate profits that will create room for further wage increases. As an enticement, the ruling coalition plans to lower the corporate tax rate from 32% to 30% in April 2016. If Prime Minister Abe is successful in convincing corporate executives to spend the tax savings on wage increases, it should goose consumer spending, which should in turn boost growth.
Value-Added Tax
Consumer spending has struggled, in part, due to the 2014 increase in Japan's value-added tax (VAT), from 5 to 8%. Japan's national debt is enormous as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), at nearly 250%, and the government needs to raise revenue where it can. The VAT is currently scheduled to increase further in 2017 to 10%. Consumers struggled mightily with the 2014 increase, and there is significant disagreement within the government as to whether the scheduled 2017 increase should be postponed. Consumer spending in 2016 will be closely watched as a determining factor of whether the economy can withstand another increase in the tax next year – a decision likely to be made before the end of 2016.
The Value of the Japanese Yen
The value of the yen has declined approximately 30% since 2012, which has been a boon for corporate profits. Japanese manufacturing competes primarily with Korean, Taiwanese and Chinese companies, and the value of the yen is a significant factor in the price competitiveness of those products. The weaker yen has made Japanese products more compelling overseas, and profits earned in U.S. dollars or euros convert back into greater amounts of yen, boosting locally denominated profits.
The weaker yen has come with a cost: reduced buying power for Japan's many imports, particularly food and energy. While higher prices for imported goods helps support inflation, higher prices can also have a chilling effect on demand. The Bank of Japan must do what it can to strike a careful balance between a yen level that is weak enough for Japanese manufacturers but not so weak that it inhibits consumer demand. The Federal Reserve's commencement of a rate-hiking cycle only complicates this task.
Abenomics Must Deliver
Abenomics has already delivered some meaningful reforms. Of note are liberalization of the electricity industry, participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and implementation of changes in corporate governance. Critics maintain there is much more to do, particularly in the areas of labor regulation and immigration. Because of Japan's graying demographic profile and enormous national debt, time is growing short. 2016 will be a critical year to determine if the economy in the Land of the Rising Sun can rise again.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/123015/3-economic-challenges-japan-faces-2016.asp