美國經濟不會衰退

國家經濟研究統計局對“經濟衰退”的定義是：整體經濟活動出現明顯下降，持續時間超過幾個月，在GDP、實際收入、就業率、工業產品及批發零售方面都有直觀表現。我們當前面臨的問題是：美國經濟開始衰退了嗎？如果沒有，那距離經濟衰退也不遠了嗎？針對上述兩個問題，瑞士信貸的回答是否定的。瑞士信貸的全球市場經濟學家認為，美國經濟將在2016年上漲2個百分點。 

就業率的數據就是最大的證據。二月中旬，每週失業人數的四週移動平均線跌至273,000點，下跌了8000個點。而一月份的失業率也跌至4.9%，在此之前，失業率已經連續三個月維持在5%附近。與此同時，平均時薪也上漲了0.5%。零售休閑和酒店行業的時薪漲幅最大。 

美國的採礦和能源版塊承受了巨大的壓力，其中油價和大宗商品價格下跌最為嚴重。費城聯邦儲備銀行的數據顯示，美國多個州的採礦和鑽井都遇到了難題，尤其是阿拉斯加、北達科他、和路易斯安那州，這些地區的經濟活動都大幅減少。採礦和能源版塊的疲軟也對制造業產生了影響，因為公司降低了原油、天然氣的開採和鑽井的設備支出。整體來講，在過去的12個月中，美國23個工業產品分支中的8個都受到了影響。 

而各州的經濟前景卻是一片光明。在經濟衰退期間，多數州的經濟都會開始收縮。但在2015年的最後三個月，美國40個州的經濟皆有增長。制造業自九月以來，採購經理人指數(PMI)已跌至50點以下，但其中最重要的“新訂單”指數卻上漲至51.5點，這是經濟增長的迹象。瑞士信貸分析家認為：“美國經濟確實會受全球經濟疲軟的影響，但充足的國內需求避免了產量的驟減。” 

並不是說2016年絕對不會出現金融危機。在2016年席卷金融市場的風險厭惡情緒足以推動美國公司裁員減支。能源相關產業的問題也可能集中在一起，引發更大的問題，尤其是能源版塊的高槓桿違約狀況可能會導致信貸緊縮。但瑞士信貸的經濟學家們認為，出口額在GDP中所佔比例不大，只要國內的家庭收支保持健康，經濟衰退是很難發生的。在他們看來，上述問題都不會使美國經濟偏離緩步上漲的軌道。 

The Case Against a U.S. Recession 

The National Bureau for Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” And the question of the hour: Has the United States entered a recession? If not, is it about to? To both questions, Credit Suisse answers no. The bank’s Global Market economists expect the U.S. economy to grow by 2 percent in 2016.  

The employment picture provides the most compelling argument against a recession. The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 273,000 in mid-February, the lowest level since November. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dipped to 4.9 percent in January, after holding steady at around 5 percent for three months, while average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent. The retail and leisure and hospitality industries, in particular, enjoyed strong job growth. “While we may not be there yet, this is the sort of [monthly employment] report we would expect once the economy reaches full employment,” says Jeremy Schwartz, of Credit Suisse’s Global Strategy and Economics team.  

The U.S. economy has certainly shown signs of stress in the mining and energy sectors, which are struggling with declining oil and commodity prices. A handful of U.S. states where mining and drilling have large footprints – such as Alaska, North Dakota and Louisiana – have seen their economic activity decline, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The weakness in the mining and energy sectors has also had knock-on effects on manufacturing, as firms reduce spending on capital equipment used for oil and gas exploration and drilling. Overall, eight of 23 subcomponents of U.S. industrial production have contracted in the last 12 months. 

With respect to state economic activity, however, the broader picture is brighter. During recessions, most state economies typically contract. In the last three months of 2015, by contrast, the economies of 40 U.S. states have actually expanded. On the manufacturing front, the purchasing managers index (PMI) has been below 50 since September, but its crucial “new orders” component rose to 51.5 in January, indicating positive growth. “The U.S. is clearly being affected by global weakness, but we expect decent domestic demand growth to prevent a sharp contraction in production,” say the bank’s analysts.  

The risk of a recession in 2016 isn’t zero. For starters, the risk aversion that has been roiling financial markets in 2016 could escalate enough to cause U.S. companies to cut back on hiring and investment. It’s also possible that the concentrated problems in energy-related businesses could infect the larger economy, particularly if defaults in the highly leveraged energy sector lead to tighter overall credit conditions. As for global headwinds, they will continue to buffet the U.S. economy, but Credit Suisse economists say that exports are too small a percentage of GDP for global woes to throw the economy into recession if domestic household incomes and spending remain healthy. In their view, it is more likely that none of the above scenarios will throw the economy off its modest growth track. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/case-u-s-recession/#sthash.j6iJKp1z.dpuf