Andrea Travillian 2016年2月12日
如果你今年每天都在觀察市場你會發現它像一個壞掉的過山車。糟糕的是，似乎全球市場都處於艱難掙紮中。在這樣的環境中怎樣挑選股票呢？是否持有資金進行觀望或者把下降市場當成低成本買入的好時機呢？讓我們來看一下市場正在面臨的風頭和一些在購買股票時需要牢記的基礎知識。
需要記住的東西
市場上升和下降是市場永恒的規律。雖然看到你的投資組合正在下跌會很有壓力，但是從2009年2月2日到2015年12月31日，市場上升了128.01%。由於很難預測市場將來的走勢，揣測市場時機可能不是一個好主意。相反你可以把你的一部分投資組合分配到指數基金。利用指數基金可以平均你的投資成本。
正如那個說法一樣，不斷增長你投資組合的一個關鍵是減少你的損失。在遭受損失之後很難回本。持有資金和股票買入策略等待時機是保持你損失最小的關鍵。這給我們帶來這個的市場看點，所以你可以盡量減小你的損失同時準備好迎接下一個市場增長階段。
持續動蕩
我們所經歷的動蕩將會持續一段時間。這有幾個原因。首先，出現的消息好壞參半。一只股票剛剛宣佈巨大盈利，另一只則宣佈虧損嚴重。中國和石油行業的壞消息與就業率和房地產的好消息混合在一起，進入動蕩階段。
其次，盡管美聯儲進行了2006年以來的首次加息，但是不能滿足那些收益率尋求者。那些人從他們的投資組合尋求更大的收益，他們將從投資的債券轉移到高分紅的股票。這將推動一些實業公司的股價繼續上漲。因此雖然整體市場在下跌，你仍然不能找到那些優質公司股價的合理價格。
再次，許多投資者仍然對2008和2009年的糟糕情況記憶深刻。大多數人受情緒的驅動，使許多投資者在壞消息發生時退出股票市場以免經歷他們之前遭受的巨大損失。這種情況在投資者快退休時更加嚴重。投資者收益和他們情緒持續驅動市場上升或者下降，直到市場穩定。
公司業績
當公司不能通過有機增長持續盈利，他們會轉向其他方式進行盈利，或者至少他們看起來是這樣。首先他們會通過削減内部開支降低運營費用。之後他們開始進行合並和收購為公司帶來更多的收入。最後他們通過例如股票回購等手段進行一些財務計劃。
去年是自2007年以來進行合並和收購最多的年份。也是公司回購股票最多的年份。根據報道，2015年第三季度公司回購股票為1560億美元。如果公司採取這些方式增加收入你在分析股票時一定要小心。確定一個公司是否可能需要在當前市場進行更多的調查。
持有資金還是購買股票？
當你持有的資金增加時你將因為上述因素保持持有資金還是購買可靠股票？在進行買賣之前註意以下問題，把他們當作你投資的指導。
利潤穩定或者在增長嗎？許多人認為天然氣公司現在是很好的買入時機因為它們下跌浮動巨大。然而，在短期内市場不穩定。另一方面如果一個公司僅僅因為市場下跌而下降，他們仍然在增長而且基本面沒有改變，那麼就應該把手中的資金換成其股票。
股息穩定嗎？股息占你買入一直股票回報的很大部分。如果一個公司的股息穩定而且股息分配率很低，那麼你可以考慮買入他的股票。因為即使該股價沒有上漲，你至少還能拿到股息。
如果市場繼續下跌我持有這只股票五年不會有問題嗎？換句話說，你足夠相信企業並了解管理層能順利度過經濟下跌嗎？
如果一只股票不能滿足上面三個條件中的至少兩個，那麼不要進行投資並尋找滿足全部是三個條件的公司。
總結
雖然市場在苦苦掙紮，持有所有資金意味著將會錯過一些好的買入機會。花費一些時間了解一家公司和為什麼它是這樣的反應，在其達到你的預期價格時買入。
Cash vs. Stocks: How to Decide
By Andrea Travillian | February 12, 2016
If you have been following the market on a daily basis this year you may feel like you are on a bad roller coaster ride that won't ever end. To make matters worse, it seems the overall global economy is struggling to stay healthy. How can you pick a stock in this environment? Is it better to just keep your money in cash or is a down market a good time to buy stocks at a lower cost? Let's take a look at the head winds the market is facing, some stock market basics you should always keep in mind and what to look for when buying stocks.
Things to Remember
Markets go up and down. They always have and always will. While it may be stressful to see your portfolio go down, keep in mind that from Jan. 2, 2009 to Dec. 31, 2015 the market went up 128.01%. Since it's difficult to predict which way the market will go, market timing may not be a good idea. Instead you could allocate some of your portfolio to index funds. With index funds you could take advantage of dollar-cost averaging instead of keeping cash on the sidelines.
With that said, one of the keys to growing a portfolio is minimizing your losses. It is harder to get back to even after a loss. Market timing with cash and strategic stock purchases can be vital to keeping your losses as low as possible. This brings us to what to watch for in this market so you can try and minimize your losses while still putting yourself in a position to take advantage of the next stock market growth phase.
Continued Volatility
The volatility that we have been experiencing will be here for a while. There are a few reasons for this. First, the news coming out is mixed with good and bad information. Just when one stock announces great earnings, another announces terrible earnings. Add to this bad news coming from China and the oil industry and good news from jobs and housing. Enter volatility.
Second, even though the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2006 it was not enough to satisfy yield seekers. Those needing more income from their portfolios will continue to turn to stocks with higher dividends than what they could get by being invested in bonds. This chase for yield will continue to push many solid company stock prices higher. So while the market overall may be going down, you still might not find reasonable prices on quality companies.
Third, many investors still remember how bad it was in 2008 and 2009. Most are driven by emotions, causing many investors to move out of stocks when the bad news hits because they don't want to endure the large losses they previously experienced. This is especially true if the investor is close to retirement. Investors need for yield plus their emotions will continue to drive the market up and down until growth becomes more stable again.
Corporate Profitability
When companies cannot continue to grow earnings through organic growth they turn to other ways to increase their earnings or at least to make it look like they are. First they start to lower their expenses through internal cost cutting. After that they begin to turn to mergers and acquisitions as a way to bring more revenues to the company. Finally they begin to implement some financial engineering by doing things such as share buybacks.
Last year was the biggest year for mergers and acquisitions since 2007. It was also the year of the buy back, as companies continued to buy their own shares. According to FactSheet, in the third quarter of 2015 companies bought $156 billion of their own stock. With companies resorting to these measures to increase earnings you need to be extra careful in analyzing a stock. Making sure they really are a solid company will take more research in the current market.
Cash or Stocks?
As you continue to add to your cash position should you leave it in cash because of the above factors or can you buy any solid stocks? Following are questions to ask before buying. Use them as a guideline before moving out of cash.
Are profits stable or growing? Many may consider gas companies a great buy right now because they have fallen so far. However, the market is not stabilizing anytime soon. On the other hand if a company is just down because the market is down but they are still growing and nothing fundamental is changing then it may be time to move some of the money from cash to stock.
Are dividends stable? Dividends are a large portion of the total return you get on a stock. If a company has a dividend that is stable and they have a low dividend payout ratio, then you might consider buying it. If the price of the stock is not going to go up, at least you get the return from the dividend.
Am I okay owning this stock for at least five years if the stock market continues to tank? In other words, do you believe in the business enough to know that management can get through a downturn and come out on the other side healthy?
If a stock does not satisfy at least two of the three things above, leave your money in cash and look for companies that meet these requirements.
The Bottom Line
While the market is struggling, sitting in all cash means you may miss out on some good buys. Take the time to understand a company and why it is reacting to the market the way it is, then buy when it hits the target price you want.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/021216/cash-vs-stocks-how-decide.asp