Sean Ross 2016年3月3日
世界領先的新興經濟體貨幣的混亂已經維持了好幾年。人民幣、盧比、盧佈和雷亞爾在2012年到2015年跌幅都超過20%。這也是美元在美聯儲實施大規模量化寬松政策下還能大幅上漲的原因。
美聯儲貨幣寬松政策的另一個結果是2007年到2015間的超低利率。收入投資者遠離傳統的儲蓄工具，例如國債和定期存款，轉向股票和高收益債券。
曾經新興市場債務被認為是一個有吸引力的投資。印度尼西亞、巴西和俄羅斯債券因為名義上的高收益曾廣受歡迎，但是這些國家大幅度的通脹使他們的債券無人問津。阿根廷和委内瑞拉的情況更糟，現在已經關閉了債券市場。
貨幣升值的原因是什麼
貨幣相對價格的國際交易的原因是這個世界理論上通過一個浮動匯率制度運轉。如果美元喪失2%的購買力而盧佈喪失5%的購買力，那麼美元相對盧佈來說就是在升值。投資者應該嘗試尋找那些相對本國貨幣喪失購買力更少的新興市場貨幣。
貨幣變得更有價值有兩種途徑。第一種是減少該貨幣的流通。如果該貨幣的國際流通減少，那麼就意味著該貨幣隨著供應的減少將會變得更有價值。第二種方式是國内經濟的勞動力生產率增加。例如，俄羅斯是一個盛產原油的國家，如果俄羅斯的原油出口商產量大幅增加那麼盧佈也將相應的變得更加有價值。
強勢貨幣增加收入，幫助債券持有人更容易負擔起外國商品。另一方面，貨幣升值意味著可能在國外市場更難償還債務或者出售商品。持有這些升值貨幣或者這些貨幣計價的資產將會有長期意義。
1.波蘭茲羅提
波蘭經濟和其他歐洲經濟一樣，帶著15年最後季度是過去五年最好季度的勢頭進入了2016年。該國的勞動力市場穩定並且商業信心正在增加。再加上低通脹率、強勁的國内需求和增加的生產率使我們預測波蘭茲羅提將在2016年全年保持增長。
2.韓元
韓國具有亞太地區最具健康基本和最高效率的經濟。自從2014年達到頂峰後韓元對美元喪失了大約15%的價值。債務與GDP的低比率使得韓國政府應該發行更多的貨幣以緩解壓力。
3.匈牙利福林
福林現在處於低利率的困擾中，而且存在許多潛在的經濟問題。匈牙利福林自2012年中期起在外匯市場表現令人矚目而且將吸引自俄羅斯和印度退出的投資者。
4.印度尼西亞盧比
印度尼西亞盧比是一種勢頭貨幣而且沒有厚重的基本面支撐，至少不能和福林、韓元和茲羅提相比。在年底反彈之前它一直處於對美元交易的最低點。該貨幣應該受到關註，尤其是大宗商品價格反彈時。
5.印度盧比
盧比比其他的新興市場貨幣風險更大，因為印度通脹嚴重而且貨幣政策不穩定。印度政府在控制價格是通過貶值促進凱恩斯式增長之間左右為難。然而，盧比因為其高利率在2015年適應風險上比其它所有新興市場貨幣表現都要好。盧比2016年存款利率為7.5%。
5 Emerging Markets Currencies to Consider in 2016
By Sean Ross | March 03, 2016
The currencies of the world's leading emerging economies have been in a tailspin for years. The Chinese renminbi, Indian rupee, Russian ruble and Brazilian real each declined by more than 20% between 2012 and 2015. This is one of the reasons why the U.S. dollar experienced a resurgence in global markets despite the Federal Reserve's massive quantitative easing programs.
Another result of the Fed's easy money policy was ultra-low interest rates between 2007 and 2015. Income investors looked away from traditional savings vehicles, such as Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs), in favor of stocks and high-yield bonds.
There was a time when emerging market debt was considered an attractive investment. Bonds in Indonesia, Brazil and Russia were once considered winners thanks to high nominal returns, but the catastrophic inflation in these countries transformed their bonds into big-time losers. The situation was even worse in Argentina, which is now shut out of bond markets, and Venezuela.
What Makes a Currency Appreciate?
Currencies trade in relative prices in international markets because the world theoretically operates through a floating exchange-rate regime. If the U.S. dollar loses 2% of its purchasing power while the Russian ruble loses 5% of its purchasing power, then the dollar is supposed to appreciate, or strengthen, against the ruble. American investors should try to find emerging market currencies that are not going to lose as much purchasing power as the dollar in 2016.
There are two ways a currency becomes more valuable. The first is a reduction in the currency's circulation. If fewer yuan are floating around the international system, that means each remaining yuan becomes that much more valuable as the supply shrinks. The second is an increase in the home economy's labor productivity. For example, Russia is an oil-rich nation, and the ruble should become relatively more valuable if Russian oil exporters become more productive.
Strong currencies raise incomes, help bondholders and make it easier to afford foreign goods. On the other hand, a rising currency means it is probably more difficult to pay off debt or sell in foreign markets. Hold currencies, or assets denominated in currencies, will hold the most value in the long term.
1. Poland: The Zloty
Poland's economy entered 2016 with as much momentum as any other European nation, with the last quarter expected to be the most robust in nearly five years. The country's labor market is strong and business confidence is rising. The combination of low inflation, impressive domestic demand and increasing productivity has led to an expectation that the Polish zloty will rise throughout 2016.
2. South Korea: The Won
South Korea has one of the most fundamentally sound and productive economies in the Asia-Pacific region. The Korean won lost nearly 15% against the U.S. dollar since its peak in early 2014. Low debt-to-GDP figures for the South Korean government should alleviate pressures to print lots of new money.
3. Hungary: The Forint
Hungary currently has low interest rate problems, and there are many underlying economic concerns. The Hungarian forint has performed admirably in forex markets since mid-2012 and could experience inflows from investors running from India and Russia.
4. Indonesia: The Rupiah
The Indonesian rupiah is a momentum play and not backed by serious fundamentals, or at least not compared to the forint, won or zloty. It was trading at record lows against the dollar before rebounding significantly at the end of the year. This is a currency to keep an eye on, especially if commodity prices rebound.
5. India: The Rupee
The rupee is a riskier bet than other emerging market currencies because of India's problems with inflation and uncertain monetary policy. The Indian government is torn between fighting high prices and trying to devalue to promote Keynesian-style growth programs. However, the rupee outperformed virtually every other emerging market currency on a risk-adjusted basis in 2015 due to its high interest rates. The rupee offers a 7.5% deposit rate for 2016.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/030316/5-emerging-markets-currencies-consider-2016.asp