Adam Brownlee 2016年3月3日
根據俄羅斯聯邦統計局的數據，2015年俄羅斯的GDP增長是-3.7%。這是自2009年石油價格下跌、對俄羅斯與格魯吉亞開戰的擔憂和美國金融危機的影響以來的最低值。俄羅斯現在經濟下跌的根本原因包括石油價格下跌、盧佈疲軟（今年以來盧佈對美元喪失了7%的價值）和美國與歐盟對俄羅斯的制裁。
隨著俄羅斯經濟在普京的領導下在七年中第二次開始衰退，俄羅斯的經濟前景會怎麼樣呢？人民會怎麼反應呢？普京會怎麼做呢？
俄羅斯經濟的預測計：石油
俄羅斯是世界上最大的石油和天然氣出口國，該國2015年12月平均每天出口量為1083萬桶。這一出口數量再加上接近30美元的原油價格（2003年以來的最低價格），《紐約時報》判斷俄羅斯的政府預算出現400億美元的缺口並不得不削減10%。多家銀行、分析人士和業内高管在《華爾街日報》發佈的文章中預測這種情況在短期内不會得到緩解，因為石油供應過剩至少將持續到2017年。
盧佈和俄羅斯消費者
根據彭博社的統計，盧佈是2015年24種新興市場貨幣中表現最差的。在宏觀上，通常一個國家的貨幣貶值對該國是個積極事件，因為商品價格更加便宜將會促進該國的經濟增長。但是俄羅斯是一個能源出口國，2013年能源出口占了該國總出口額5070億美元中的3360億，為66%。由於石油價格跌到十年以來的最低點，俄羅斯變得出口乏力。
俄羅斯消費者正受到盧佈疲軟的影響，俄羅斯是一個主要的典型消費品進口國，例如汽車、藥品、汽車零部件和電腦在2013年占該過總進口額3240億美元的15%。隨著盧佈的貶值，俄羅斯消費者越來越少能買的起用強勁外國貨幣計價的進口產品並且情況還在惡化，俄羅斯12月的零售銷售相比一年前下降15.3%，工資由於通貨膨脹的影響購買力下降10%，通貨膨脹率為12.9%。
因為克裡米亞問題的制裁
美國和歐盟因為2014年俄羅斯軍隊入侵烏克蘭克裡米亞對俄羅斯進行制裁，下面是歐盟制裁的主要内容：
歐盟資產凍結並禁止149個個人和37個企業的簽證。
禁止克裡米亞對歐盟的出口。
阻止俄羅斯主要國有的五家銀行、三家能源公司和三個國防公司的新股票和債券的發行融資。
這些措施並不旨在限制俄羅斯經濟，因為許多國家與其有複雜的聯系並依賴其能源出口，但是他們將作為一個警告防止再次出現類似事件。盡管如此，這些制裁由於普京的反應卻影響了俄羅斯經濟。
普京將會怎麼做？
這使我們想到普京和他將怎麼做。俄羅斯總統會對烏克蘭實施更加大規模的軍事行動嗎？或者重新和美國展開冷戰以便刺激經濟並保持強硬嗎？雖然我相信進一步軍事上的強硬符合普京的作風，但是這不太可能發生。經濟上講，俄羅斯政府會採用刺激措施包括進行談判緩解克裡米亞形勢以減輕制裁。
總結
最後，俄羅斯經濟不穩定是因為普京的行為引起的。這些經濟影響正在對俄羅斯民衆造成困擾並使他們遭受影響。這種情況可能導致2018年大選的政治變革，我認為到時俄羅斯人民會表達自己的意願。
What Will Become of the Russian Bear?
By Adam Brownlee | March 03, 2016
According to the Federal Statistics Service, Russia’s GDP for 2015 was -3.7%. This is the lowest level of growth for the former Soviet Union since 2009 when plummeting oil prices, political fears over a war with Georgia and contagion from the U.S. financial crisis catapulted the country into a recession. The root causes of Russia’s current economic woes include the plunge in oil prices, a weak ruble (the currency has lost more than 7% against the dollar this year) and sanctions imposed on the motherland by the U.S. and the European Union.
As the Russian economy slumps for the second time in seven years under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, what lies in wait for the Federation's economy, how will its people react and what will Putin do?
Russian Economic Forecasting: Oil
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas condensate: the country averaged 10.83 million barrels a day in December, 2015. This urge to export oil combined with a Brent crude oil benchmark of approximately $30 a barrel (its lowest level since 2003), means that the country is now facing an approximate $40 billion shortfall in its Federal budget and will have to cut expenses by 10% according to the New York Times. And no respite is barreling over the near-term horizon as according to several banks, analysts and industry executives stated in a Wall Street Journal article, that the expected oil glut is expected to last until 2017.
The Ruble and the Russian Consumer
The ruble was ranked as the worst performing currency among 24 emerging-market currencies for 2015 according to Bloomberg. On a macro level, when a country’s currency weakens, it is typically a positive event as exports theoretically increase due to cheaper goods, leading to stronger growth in the country. But Russia is an exporter of energy: in 2013 energy exports for the country represented $336 billion of its total exports of $507 billion or 66% according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Given that oil is pegged to a global benchmark which is beneath 10-year-lows, Russian exports are anemic.
What is happening is that Russian consumers are being pinched by the weakened ruble: Russia is a major importer of quintessential consumer goods such as cars, pharmaceuticals, vehicle parts and computers which collectively represented 15% of the country’s total imports of $324 billion in 2013 according to data from The Observatory of Economic Complexity. As the ruble weakens, Russian consumers can afford less and less of the imports manufactured using stronger, foreign currencies and the results are festering up: December retail sales in Russia dropped by 15.3% compared to the same month from a year earlier, wages adjusted for inflation dipped by 10% and rampant inflation stood at 12.9% according to Bloomberg.com.
Sanctions Over Crimea
The U.S. and the EU imparted the following sanctions on Russia starting in 2014 over its militant “annexation” of Crimea in the Ukraine. Note: this is not a complete list of sanctions but some of the most pertinent ones, all obtained from the European Union Newsroom:
The EU asset freezes and visa bans of some 149 individuals and 37 entities.
A ban on imports going to the EU from Crimea.
The prevention of new bond sales or equity financing of five major, state-owned banks, three Russian energy companies, and three Russian defense companies.
These measures were not designed to cripple the Russian economy as many other nations are intricately linked with the former Soviet Union and depend on its energy exports, but they do serve as a warning shot across the bow to dissuade Russia from a repeat of Crimea. These sanctions nonetheless have stifled the Russian economy as a result of actions directed by Putin.
What Will Putin Do?
This brings us to Putin and what he will do. Will the Russian President invoke a grand act of bullying and take further, militant action against the Ukraine or perhaps restart a nuclear cold war with the U.S. in an attempt to rev up his country’s economy and cling to power? Not likely, although I certainly believe further fits of strong-handedness involving military actions are in the cards when it comes to Putin. Economically, though, the government may attempt stimulus measures which include coming to the table to resolve the Crimea situation to lift sanctions.
The Bottom Line
Ultimately, the Russian economy is reeling in part because of the actions Putin has taken. These economic impacts are filtering down to the Russian populace, and they are suffering as a result. What this could lead to is a political change via the country's 2018 elections, and I do believe the Russian people will voice their opinion.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030316/what-will-become-russian-bear.asp