日圓為什麼不會下跌

FXstreet.com  2016年3月20日

荷蘭蘭博銀行報告分析師Jane Foley指出因為2月中旬道瓊斯工業平均指數恢復年初以來損失的價值，風險開始回升。

主要引證

“德國DAX指數已經恢復到下跌之前的73%，而日經平均指數只恢復到50%。日本股票長期弱勢的最簡單解釋是因為日圓持續的強勁。但是值得註意的是，日圓在過去一個月沒有隨著股票市場和風險資產的回暖而削弱。盡管近幾週的風險整體水平有所改善且日本央行在2月29日宣佈負利率政策，以日圓為避險手段的資金流入並沒有減少。

除了日圓，日本債券的需求也在持續。美聯儲比預期溫和的態度已經對整體債券的收益率產生影響。投資者加劇的對日本債券的需求增加了對供應缺乏的擔憂，因為債券已經受到日本央行大量寬鬆政策的影響。投機者認為寬鬆政策將會在今年被加大力度，這進一步加劇了對日本央行今年日圓供應短缺的擔憂。

雖然低收益率通常會削弱貨幣，但是根據彭博社的報道，投資者使用日本國債進行的交叉貨幣基础互換增加了對日圓的需求。日本政府公佈的數據顯示，在過去五週中流入日本的淨資金增加2.762萬億日圓，這增加了對日圓的需求。

展望未來我們確實看到日圓在未來幾個月兌換美元將喪失一些價值。這種觀點基於兩個關鍵因素。第一個是假設美國的通脹指標將會上升，使美聯儲能最早在6月提高利率。由於對美國債券收益增高的預期，我們會發現資金將流向美元。第二個因素是假設美聯儲能在不把投資者推向例如日圓的避險資產情況下實現這一目標。即使實現這一目標，我們也不認為USD/JPY會上漲太多。鑒於世界經濟增長的緩慢速度和對貨幣政策有效性的以及過多的政治風險的擔憂我們把USD/JPY12個月之後的目標價格定在116。”

JPY: Why won’t it fall? - Rabobank

By FXstreet.com | March 20, 2016

Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that the rebound in risk appetite since the middle of February has allowed the DJIA to recoup all of the losses registered at the start of the year.

Key Quotes

“The DAX has recovered around 73% of its fall but by contrast the Nikkei 225 has only covered 50%. The simplest explanation for the underperformance of Japanese stocks is the continued strength of the JPY. However, it is notable that the JPY has not weakened over the past month as stock markets and risky assets have recovered. Despite the improvement in general levels of risk appetite in recent weeks and the BoJ’s announcement of negative interest rates on January 29, the JPY has proved reluctant to relinquish its safe haven inflows.

In addition to the JPY, Japanese bonds have also been in demand. The more dovish than expected tone of the Fed this week had the impact of depressing bond yields in general. Heightened investor demand for JGBs has been reinforcing concerns about a lack of supply which were already prevalent given the BoJ’s enormous QQE plan. Speculation that QQE could be extended later this year has further enhanced fears of JGB supply shortages.

Although low yields will usually trigger a weaker currency, according to Bloomberg foreign investors have been able to used favourable cross-currency basis-swaps to bolster returns from JGB which has underpinned demand for the paper. Portfolio flows appear to validate the view that there has been overseas demand for JGBs. Data released by the Ministry of In total Japanese net international portfolio flows have seen an increase of JPY 2762 bln over the past 5 weeks which in turn has helped support the JPY.

Looking ahead we do see scope for the JPY to relinquish some ground against the USD in the coming months. This view depends on two key factors. The first is the assumption that US inflation indicators will pick up to allow the Fed to hike interest rates this year potentially as soon as June. On an anticipated rise in US bond yields we would expect flows to be drawn into the greenback. The second factor assumes that he Fed can engineer this without sending investors scurrying into safe haven assets such as the yen. Even if this is achieved we do not expect USD/JPY to rise too far this year. In view of the slow pace of world growth, concerns over the effectiveness of extraordinary monetary policy settings and the plethora of political risks we have a 12 mth target at USD/JPY116.”

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/fxstreet/forex/news/jpy-why-wont-it-fall-rabobank.aspx