人民幣的未來走勢會怎樣？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年3月18日

中國政府一直警告做空者要下註人民幣。但是做空者沒有聽從意見而且現在他們不是很高興。雖然他們中的一些人已經發現他們的選擇最終將毫無價值，但是其他人並沒有減少做空人民幣的意圖。因為貨幣市場的但大多數時間出現結果要比預期時間長，所以現在判斷哪一方的交易是正確的還為時過早。以下是需要考慮的幾個重要觀點。

人民幣做多者

瑞士投資經理和Notz Stucki & Cie的另類投資主管Hilmi Unver給出以下觀點：“中國希望控制人民幣，盡其所能的保證沒有其他人能決定人民幣的走向。你能和一個巨大的經濟體和政策制定者抗爭嗎，答案顯然是否定的。

中國的外匯儲備自2014年開始已經下降了7900億美元，但是3.2萬億的儲備量依舊是其他國家的三倍。正如銀冠資產管理公司的 Patrick Robert Chovanec最近指出的，中國不是一個債務國，因此不會不得不面對外匯危機。根據Chovanec的說法，中國希望人民幣對美元貶值，這是人民幣加入貨幣籃子的原因，因為美聯儲加息會導致美元升值。如果人民幣貶值，將會有助於中國經濟的發展。這是中國想要保證在貨幣市場競爭力的技巧，因此中國不會允許人民幣貶值太多。為了保證貶值不會貶值太多，中國政府限制資本外流並發佈聲明以重建外匯市場信心。隨著美聯儲2016年加息前景的減弱人民幣也在升值。

下一個觀點不屬於人民幣做多者，但是也不是和做空者持用相同觀點。這一觀點警告投資者不要過多做空人民幣。這一觀點應該被考慮是因為它來自過去幾年彭博社追蹤道德最好的人民幣走勢預測者荷蘭銀行的高級策略師Roy Teo。他關於人民幣的警告如下：“任何希望人民幣大幅度貶值的人最終都會失望。”但是他預計人民幣在年底之前會貶值3%。

人民幣做空者

中國經濟在2月的增長速度是26年來的最低且出口下降25%，一些投資者不能理解人民幣為什麼會不下跌。上面已經給出了可能的原因，包括美聯儲加息可能性的降低和中國龐大的外匯儲備。這些條件不能動搖所有的人民幣做空者。

新月資本兩年前對人民幣進行了做空。到現在還在持有倉位，因為它認為人民幣在未來兩年將會貶值超過70%。

潘興廣場資本管理的Bill Ackman在1月向投資者報告他們對人民幣的做空已經失敗。

Segra資本管理的對沖基金經理Adam Rodman無意削減對人民幣的做空，他認為人民幣會在未來18個月中貶值。

香港加拿大皇家銀行的外匯策略主管Sue Trinh簡單的表示人民幣對美元的價值被高估了。

總結

到目前位置，人民幣做多者的觀點是正確的。從1月7日起人民幣已經升值了1.6%，但是現在還不能判斷未來結果會怎樣。

Where Does the Chinese Yuan Go From Here?

By Dan Moskowitz | March 18, 2016

The Chinese government has been warning bears not to bet against its currency. But the bears didn’t listen and they’re not very happy right now. While some of them have seen their options expire worthless, others still have short positions with no intention of paring them. Since most events take longer to play out than expected in currency markets, it’s still too early to tell who is on the correct side of this trade. Below are several important opinions to consider.

Yuan Bulls

Hilmi Unver, a Swiss money manager and head of alternative investments at Notz Stucki & Cie, makes the following point: “China wants to have control over the yuan and will do whatever it can to ensure that no one else decides what direction it goes in. Is it worth fighting against a huge economy and policy maker that can take you out? No.”

China’s currency reserves have declined $790 billion since June 2014, but at $3.2 trillion this is still three times larger than any other country. As Patrick Robert Chovanec of Silvercrest Asset Management recently pointed out, China is not a debtor country and therefore will not have to contend with a currency crisis. According to Chovanec, the Chinese secretly wanted the yuan to depreciate versus the U.S. dollar, which is why it moved to a basket of currencies, assuming that Federal Reserve interest rate hikes would lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. If the yuan depreciated, then it was expected to help the Chinese economy. The trick is that China still wants to remain competitive in the currency market, so it can’t allow the yuan to depreciate too much. In order to ensure depreciation wouldn’t go too far, the Chinese government has limited capital outflows and used announcements to restore confidence in the currency. The yuan has also appreciated because the prospects for numerous Fed rate hikes in 2016 have diminished. This has hurt the U.S. dollar, which has helped the yuan.

The next opinion doesn’t belong to a yuan bull, but someone who is not as bearish as most people. He’s warning others not to be too bearish on the yuan. His opinion should be considered because he has been the best yuan forecaster over the past year as tracked by Bloomberg. His name and role: Roy Teo, senior strategist at ABN Amro Bank. His warning related to the yuan: “Anyone hoping for another major devaluation will be disappointed.” However, Teo expects the yuan to slide 3% by the end of the year. 

Yuan Bears

With the Chinese economy growing at its slowest past in 26 years and exports plunging 25% in February, some investors can’t figure out why the yuan is holding up. Those potential reasons were given above, including a Federal Reserve that’s less hawkish than expected and China’s large reserves. These conditions don’t sway all yuan bears.

Crescent Capital made a bearish bet on the yuan two years ago. It’s holding on though, as it believes the yuan could decline by as much as 70% over the next two years.

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management reported to investors in January that its bearish yuan bets had failed. 

Adam Rodman, hedge fund manager at Segra Capital Management, has no intention of paring down his short yuan bet as he expects the currency to depreciate over the next 18 months.

Sue Trinh, head of foreign exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada (RY) in Hong Kong, simply stated that the yuan is overvalued versus the U.S. Dollar.

The Bottom Line

The yuan bulls have been correct so far. The yuan has appreciated 1.6% since January 7, but there is no telling how it will play out.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031816/where-does-chinese-yuan-go-here.asp