德意志銀行表示USD/JPY存在巨大的下行風險

FXstreet.com 2016年3月24日

德意志銀行策略師Taisuke Tanaka指出USD/JPY在112到113日元之間徘徊，但是存在巨大下跌風險。

主要引證

“日本的公共養老金和一些其他投資者正在美元疲軟時買入美元，但是我們發現沒有發現有足夠的購買力能提高USD/JPY匯率。

與此同時，由於日本出口商和機構投資者的套期保值美元在114-117日元之間存在巨大的抛售壓力。即使美國經濟數據良好大宗商品和股票價格回升的情況下，USD/JPY依然存在這個阻力線。

即使利好消息出現，USD/JPY也通常在這個上限上開始下跌，而不利消息出現則立即開始下跌。上週美國聯邦公開市場委員會成員將加息預測從四次變成兩次之後匯率開始大幅度下降，雖然即使是僅僅一次加息市場也會受到巨大影響。

對日本來說好消息是市場情緒限制了美元的大規模抛售，使USD/JPY的最低價格穩穩維持在110-112之間。實際上，基本面沒有提供任何過分悲觀的理由。盡管如此，我們很難樂觀起來並且不希望這種股票和大宗商品上漲的趨勢得到維持，即使是美國指標得到改善。

一旦市場風險恢複，我們將在未來三個月對USD/JPY的下行風險保持警惕。在7月的參議院選舉之前政府可能不會允許下跌到100日元以下，會通過貨幣幹預使其維持在105到110之間。

與此同時，這將避免5月在日本舉辦的G20峰會中日元因為過度疲軟受到指責。如果市場懷疑這種情況會限制幹預措施的規模和持續性，投機者和日本套期保值者將會加大在110日元左右美元的抛售。”

USD/JPY: Downside risk still prevails – Deutsche Bank

By FXstreet.com | March 24, 2016

Taisuke Tanaka, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the USD/JPY is hovering at around ¥112-113, but downside risk remains prevalent.

Key Quotes

“Japanese public pensions and some investors should continue to buy dollars on weakness, but we do not envision strong enough purchasing to boost the USD/JPY rate.

At the same time, the dollar faces strong selling pressure at ¥114-117 due to hedging by Japanese exporters and institutional investors. The USD/JPY has held at this resistance line even with the easing in risk-off sentiment thanks to solid US economic data and the rebound in equity and commodity markets.

The USD/JPY tends to fall in disappointment at this upper limit even when positive news appears, while falling directly with any bad news. The rate dropped sharply last week after FOMC members scaled back their forecast this year from four rate hikes to two, even though the markets had already discounted just a single hike.

The good news for Japan is that any rush to sell the USD has been limited due to the retreat in risk-off sentiment, and the bottom has held firm at ¥110-112. Indeed, the fundamentals do not offer any reason for excess pessimism. Still, we can hardly be optimistic and do not expect the upswing in equities and commodities to be sustained even with the improvement in US indicators.

We remain vigilant against downside risk in the USD/JPY over the next three months once the autonomous comeback in risk markets ends. The government is unlikely to allow a drop below ¥100 just before the Upper House election in July and may seek to halt any decline to ¥105-110 through currency intervention.

At the same time, it will want to avoid criticism of weak yen guidance at the G20 Summit in May, which Japan will be hosting. If the markets suspect that these circumstances will limit the scale and sustainability of any intervention action, speculators and Japanese hedgers could increase their dollar selling at around ¥110.”

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/fxstreet/forex/news/usdjpy-downside-risk-still-prevails-deutsche-bank.aspx