印度政府再度抑制黃金進口

孟買原棉花交易所的一個八樓的小房間，正是珠寶消亡的地方。黃金核心地區的主要黃金測定標記實驗室可能會意識到這一點，這裡是將精致的手镯、耳環熔煉成金條的地方。印度政府試圖推動這種方法來降低印度的黃金進口量。融掉的珠寶將轉換成債券，幾年後政府會支付等額的黃金，年化利率為2.5%。

黃金是印度國庫的心腹大患。印度每年從中國進口1000噸黃金，然後藏在自己的襪子裡、保險箱裡或是印度教寺院裡，只有一小部分會熔煉成手镯。比黃金貿易逆差還要大的產品就只有石油了。經濟學家 Ajit Ranade 指出，印度在進口黃金上的花銷要高於外國機構對印度股票、債券的投資。

雖然在印度傳統文化中，人們會將黃金作為新娘的陪嫁或是寺廟的供奉，但近年來的黃金需求卻開始急速增加。印度人在1982年消費了65噸黃金。隨著通貨膨脹的加劇和盧佈的不斷貶值，節儉的人更願意把辛苦攢下的錢換成黃金。換句話說，從盧佈的角度來講，黃金是極佳的投資產品。

讓印度人抛棄婚禮和宗教的習俗完全是天方夜譚。但在黃金投資方面則比較容易下手，尤其是在銀行信譽較低的農村。印度政府希望通過債券計劃收回50噸黃金，這與2萬噸的儲備量相比簡直微不足道。

印度總理的女兒英迪拉·甘地在1962年捐獻了金飾來解決同中國的沖突問題，從這以後，政府的黃金計劃就沒有成功過。雖然用黃金兌換的紙質債券和黃金實物具有同樣的效用，但是這對黃金收藏家來說毫無吸引力。印度統計協會的經濟學家 Gurbachan Singh 指出，熟悉文書、銀行工作的印度人持有的黃金很少。出於同樣的原因，無論政府施加多大的壓力，大多數印度寺院都牢牢把持著信徒供奉的黃金，堅決不肯兌換成債券。

印度政府還想了其他的辦法來降低黃金的吸引力。政府近來增加了些許的消費稅，便使得珠寶的銷量停滞了一月之久。政府增加了黃金的進口關稅，並要求商人們指出黃金購買量超過20萬盧比（合3000美元）的買家，這讓黃金商人們憤怒不已。除此之外，央行還禁止了貸款購買黃金。

種種迹象表明，黃金的魅力將漸漸消退。通脹率大幅下跌，降低了黃金的對沖作用。政府首次為上億群衆提供銀行賬戶，為他們提供新的儲蓄方式。年輕人佩戴金飾的熱情也遠低於他們的父輩。

如果政府想加速這一轉變，就要改變方針。各種法律條款將大部分銀行存款轉移至低收益的政府債券及農業債券。這意味著印度人民的儲蓄利息微乎其微，反而增加了黃金的相對吸引力。這樣的金融壓制對政府資金起不到幫助作用。這意味著印度人壓制的黃金抵得上印度四個月的經濟產出。這些資金本可用於生產性投資提供。

India’s government tries to curb imports of gold—again

A SMALL room on the eighth floor of Mumbai’s former cotton exchange is where jewellery goes to die. At the Master Bullion Assaying & Hallmarking Lab in the heart of the gold district, superheated crucibles melt elaborate bangles and earrings into bars a central banker might recognise. This alchemy is being promoted by the government under a new “monetisation” scheme designed to reduce India’s imports of gold: the melted bling can be traded for a bond which will return the same amount of gold several years down the line, with interest of up to 2.5% in the interim.
Gold is the bane of India’s exchequer. Indians vie with Chinese as the world’s biggest consumers, buying just under 1,000 tonnes a year and stashing it in anklets, safe-deposit boxes and Hindu temples. As all but a few bangles’ worth is imported, only oil accounts for a bigger share of India’s trade deficit. To put it another way, the imports cost India more dollars every year than it attracts from foreign institutions investing in stocks and bonds, points out Ajit Ranade, an economist.

Although Indians have traditionally used gold as part of a bride’s dowry and as an offering at temples, demand has ballooned in recent years. In 1982 they consumed just 65 tonnes of the stuff. Decades of inflation and a much-debased rupee have pushed savers towards what is, in effect, a convenient way to insulate their nest-egg from the poor decisions of India’s policymakers. In rupee terms, in other words, gold has been a stellar investment.
Getting Indians to forgo gold for weddings and religious offerings is probably a non-starter. Easier to target the portion that is bought as an investment, especially in rural areas where banks are scarce and mistrusted. The government hopes it will gather 50 tonnes of gold through its bond scheme—a modest target given the country’s 20,000-tonne pile. Yet four months in only three tonnes have been gathered.

That is hardly a surprise: government schemes to collect gold have disappointed since at least 1962, when Indira Gandhi, then the prime minister’s daughter, handed over her own finery to finance a border skirmish with China. Though gold and a government bond backed by gold are much the same on paper, they do not hold the same appeal for those who favour gold as a store of value. Indians who are comfortable with paperwork and banks simply aren’t big holders of gold, points out Gurbachan Singh, an economist at the Indian Statistical Institute. By the same token, most Hindu temples, many of which have hoards of gold donated by the pious, have steered clear of the scheme, despite pressure from the government.

Policymakers have other ways of making gold less appealing. A modest excise tax in the recently unveiled budget has kept jewellers across the country on strike for a month. Gold sellers were already furious at import duties and rules forcing them to identify customers buying more than 200,000 rupees’ ($3,000) worth. In addition, the central bank is discouraging lending to buy gold.

Several trends suggest gold may eventually lose its lustre. Inflation has fallen dramatically, reducing its value as a hedge. A government scheme is giving hundreds of millions of people bank accounts for the first time, providing them with an alternative way to save. Young people are said to be less interested in wearing gold jewellery than their parents.

If the government really wanted to accelerate this shift, it could change its own ways. Various laws steer a big share of bank deposits into low-yielding government debt and agricultural loans. That, in turn, means that Indians earn little interest on their savings, enhancing gold’s relative appeal. Such financial repression helps the government fund itself cheaply. But it means that Indians are sitting on gold equivalent in value to four months of economic output. That could be financing productive investments instead.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21695558-indias-government-tries-curb-imports-goldagain-tarnished-appeal