美聯儲現在在正確的軌道上嗎？

 Rick Rieder  2016年4月5日

我曾多次在博客上指出，在三年前機會成熟時美聯儲錯失了提高利率的機會。在聽到美聯儲主席耶倫在上週的評論後，我想說的是雖然美聯儲現在的行動緩慢，但是其做法符合當今的經濟和市場環境。

美聯儲現在的政策是適當寬鬆

在她上週的評論中，耶倫強調美聯儲將會“謹慎地進行政策調整”，使美聯儲是否會在這個春天加息的疑問再次出現。她還感歎對傳統的政策有一個“非對稱”機會，我們相信那是美聯儲之前猶豫的直接結果。

現在，我相信美聯儲的觀望態度十分明顯，等待適當有利的全球經濟、金融和通脹條件出現。正如下圖所示，世界正經歷美元的強勢和主要與美元實行匯率限制的新興市場經濟增長放緩（尤其是中國）。實際上，以美元計價的全球經濟增長正處於多年來最糟糕的水平。

通過保持不變和指出“如果出現動蕩或者持續低下”可能將利率重新調回接近零的水平，美聯儲暗示能在短期內接受高通脹。這將會保證美元不會過分強勢並對全球經濟起到一定的緩解作用。

換句話說，現在的全球經濟形勢非常危險，尤其是來自中國逐漸增大的危險和歐洲和日本央行超激進的寬鬆貨幣政策需要美聯儲出台更加寬鬆的政策。

美聯儲在兩年前出現利率正常化的機會時沒有行動是個非常錯誤的決定。當時如果有所行動能給美聯儲更多的活動空間。現在，美聯儲必須與即將到達頂峰的美國就業增長、美國經濟增長放緩和非常嚴峻的全球經濟和金融市場形勢抗爭。

此外，美國就業率出現暫時下降，這是一個未來出現就業增長疲軟的歷史信號。這些因素都把美聯儲的利率正常化放到一個非常苦難的境地。這就是說，三月的就業報告打擊了預期並再次表明勞動力市場何時變得強勁還是個未知數，這使我們更加相信美聯儲在今年最多進行兩次或者不進行任何利率變化。

Is the Fed On the Right Track?

By Rick Rieder | April 05, 2016

I’ve pointed out many times here on the Blog that the Federal Reserve (Fed) missed its window to raise interest rates nearly three years ago, when conditions were ripe for a hike. After hearing Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s comments last week, I wanted to point out that despite the central bank’s slow-to-act approach, the Fed is doing exactly what it should be doing given today’s economic and market environment.

Fed policy today is appropriately easy

In her comments last week, Yellen emphasized that the central bank will “proceed cautiously in adjusting policy,” raising questions about whether the Fed’s second rate hike will happen this spring. She also lamented that there is an “asymmetric” opportunity set for conventional policy, which we believe is a direct result of the central bank’s previous hesitation.

For now, I believe the Fed’s current wait-and-see stance is clear, appropriate and appreciative of global economic, financial and inflationary conditions. As the chart below shows, the world is feeling the crunch of a stronger U.S. dollar (USD) and slower growth in emerging markets (in China in particular) that are largely pegged to the USD. Indeed, global growth priced in USD is at the worst level in years.

By remaining on hold and pointing out that it could adjust rates back to near zero “if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low,” the Fed is signaling it will tolerate higher inflation in the short run. This, in turn, should help keep the USD from strengthening too much and ease some of the pain on the global economy.

In other words, the global risks today, particularly the growth risks out of China, coupled with super aggressive easy monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) require easier policy from the Fed.

It’s just too bad the Fed didn’t initiate liftoff a couple of years ago, when there was an optimal open window for beginning rate normalization. A move then would have given the central bank more room now for maneuvering. Today, the central bank must contend with U.S. payrolls growth that is likely peaking, a moderating U.S. economy and challenging economic and financial market conditions abroad.

Further, temporary U.S. hiring has started to slow, which historically has been a signal of future weakness in payrolls growth. All these dynamics put the Fed in a difficult position regarding normalizing rates. That said, the March jobs report, which beat expectations and reiterated that labor markets are as robust at any time in a generation, leads us to believe all the more that this is a Fed that will move at most two times this year, with the potential for no movement at all in policy rates. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/040516/fed-right-track.asp