金融危機會重演嗎？

瑞士信貸宏觀投資、資產管理主管Jonathan Wilmot回顧了19世紀90年代、20世紀30年代以及2007年的三次金融危機，發現當前時期發生金融危機的潛在金融、經濟條件並不明顯。所以他的結論是：政治因素。

 經濟危機會再度降臨嗎？4月6日，Wilmot在瑞士信貸2016年亞洲投資峰會的開幕式中指出：“歸根結底是政治因素，我們要看政府採取什麼政策來應對當前的挑戰。危機過後的很長一段時間内，系統都是極其脆弱的。”

 Wilmot說：“今年年初的市場‘大恐慌’是個極佳的買入時機。縱觀歷史，在經濟泡沫和過度槓桿化的初期，正確的做法是同恐慌的人們採取相反的行動。”

我們身處在這樣的時期嗎？他認為，回顧股票市場和全球工業產品的長期表現，就會發現全球經濟並不處於過熱的狀態。全球危機出現之前的先決條件並不存在於西方經濟體中。

這意味著問題的關鍵在中國等新興經濟體及原油等大宗商品之中。中國需要面對的問題是，財政措施和必要的結構性改革能否雙管齊下。但這不是其他經濟體面臨的問題。Wilmot解釋說：“中國是個模闆，這些事情也會發生在歐洲和其他國家之間。”

Wilmot說：“在危機之後的餘波中，政策失誤是很重要的因素。”1937年的貨幣緊縮政策原本是想避免危機重演，結果卻使情況惡化。我們從20世紀30年代的危機中得到的教訓是，在私營部門無法插手的時候，公共部門就該上場了。

當今世界進入了動蕩時期，包括金融、交通在内的任何部門都會被高度發展的科技改變。重大的人口結構轉變會給商業、政府領導者帶來極大的挑戰，如：嬰兒潮一代集體退休。“展望未來的世界，經濟和工業的主體部分極可能被摧毀，這會給股票市場帶來重大影響。”債券收益可能在未來很長一段時間内保持在較低的水平，基金管理業不得不重新制定未來的策略。

Is the World Going Back into Crisis?

By: Credit Suisse

Published: April 6, 2016

Jonathan Wilmot, Credit Suisse’s Head of Macro Investments, Asset Management, looks at three past crises of capitalism – in the 1890s, the 1930s and the most recent one in 2007 – and shows that previous pre-crisis financial and economic conditions are not apparent today. His conclusion: Policy matters.

Is the world going back into crisis? “It comes down to policy and whether policy rises to the challenges we face right now,” Wilmot told participants in the opening session on April 6 at the Credit Suisse 2016 Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. “After big crises, the system remains fragile for a very long period of time,” he explained.

The “deep panic” in the markets at the beginning of this year could signal a buy opportunity, Wilmot said. “In history, it has always been right to be contrarian in a panic except when you are at the beginning of a bubble or over-leveraged period.”

Are we in such a period? Going by a longer-term view of equity market performance and global industrial production levels, the global economy is not overheating, he observed. “The preconditions that had been in place in Western economies prior to previous global recessions are not there.”

That suggests that the focus of concern should be on emerging economies such as China and on developments in commodities including oil. In China, the issue is whether it can implement fiscal policy measures and push through necessary structural reforms at the same time. Yet this is not unlike the challenge facing other economies. “China is just a template for what needs to happen in Europe and other countries,” Wilmot explained.

“In the aftermath of these great crises, policy mistakes really matter,” he said, recalling that the monetary policy tightening in 1937, which was intended to stave off a return to crisis, ended up making matters worse. “One of the lessons of the 1930s for how we came out of the crisis is that the public sector stepped in when the private sector wouldn’t.”

The world, he remarked, is entering an unsettling period during which whole sectors such as finance and transport will be comprehensively changed by technological advances. Major demographic shifts that are playing out such as the retirement of baby boomers will pose significant challenges to business and government leaders. “If I look at the world going forward, there is the possibility of massive disruption to major parts of the economy and industry that will have a major effect on equities.” With bond yields possibly remaining low for some time and with its bias in favor of passive diversification, the fund management industry will have to review its strategies going forward, said Wilmot.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源： https://www.thefinancialist.com/15250/#sthash.7ES34r9g.dpuf