中國經濟被逼到角落了嗎？

Dan Moskowitz

當環境變壞時世界上第二大經濟體將會怎麼做呢？提高流動性。為什麼不呢？其他經濟體都在這樣做。那麼哪裡會出錯呢？你是說需要幾十年來償還的極端債務水平？那有什麼關系，那是下一代需要考慮的事情。

我們以前見過這樣的情景而且它還沒結束。這不僅僅發生在中國，日本、歐洲和美國也發生過。毫無疑問，這將為全球經濟帶來極為嚴重的後果。在中國的案例中，是什麼證明經濟正在疲軟而中國將怎樣應對呢。讓我們來看一下。

制造業萎縮

正如你所知道的，中國正嘗試從制造和投資驅動型經濟向服務和消費型經濟轉變。這可能在長期有意義，但是現在中國的消費人口正在進入老齡化而且消費者由於極端的股市波動不像前幾年那樣有信心。像美國一樣，股票市場將對消費者的心理產生巨大影響。我們可以在咖啡師和調酒師的增長上看到服務業的增長。但是這些咖啡師和調酒師不能驅動世界上第二大經濟體。

這意味著制造業仍然扮演著重要角色，但是這不是一個好消息。今年2月，制造業出現連續7個月的萎縮，PMI從1月的49.4變成49.0。低於50意味著出現萎縮，而高於50意味著擴張。這一數據不應該使人們震驚，因為GDP增長已經放緩。這些都是相關聯的。

即使這與你沒有關系，也請註意中國剛剛宣佈將在未來三年裁員500萬到600萬工人。這對中國的13.5億人口來說是個很小的比例，但是這可能預示著出現更加糟糕的情況。

問題是中國只有提高流動性才能對其經濟有所幫助，但是如果提高流動性，那麼其信用資質將會受到嚴重沖擊。

穆迪公司的信用等級下調

穆迪公司剛剛把中國的Aa3政府債券信用等級從穩定變為負面。它指出政府資產負債表上的債務正在大幅度增加，而且由於資本外流導致的外匯儲備下降將可能引發貨幣和經濟增長風險。穆迪公司最近曾指出：“繼續增長的高債務水平增加了經濟急劇放緩的風險，因為債務限制其他支出或使市場中銀行資產惡化。”根據穆迪公司的數據，中國當前的政府債務水平是GDP的40.6，而2012年是32.5%。穆迪公司認為政府債務將在2017年達到GDP的43%。

穆迪公司還指出中國當前的外匯儲備為3.2萬億美元。這是一個有力的支撐，但是該數據在2014年超過3.9萬億美元。穆迪公司認為中國將出現一個緩慢的經濟增長速度下降。它認為經濟增長速度下降緩慢的唯一原因是政府對經濟增長的支持。

總結

明顯的，中國的經濟增長速度正在放緩但是政府不確定如何處理這一問題。它可以在減少當前債務水平的同時維持經濟下降的現狀並為下一個經濟繁榮做準備，或者向系統增加流動性以便促進暫時經濟增長。後者將會增加信用等級降低的風險並且不會產生長遠影響。

Is the Chinese Economy Backed into a Corner?

By Dan Moskowitz

What is the second-largest economy expected to do when conditions are weakening? Boost liquidity. Why not? Everyone else is doing it. What could possibly go wrong? Extreme debt levels that will take decades to pay off, you say? Oh well, that’s the next generation’s problem.

We have seen this movie before and it doesn’t end well. It also doesn’t just apply to China, but Japan, the Eurozone and the United States to name a few. There is no doubt that the consequences will eventually be dire for the global economy. In the case of China, what is the proof that the economy is weakening and how does China deal with it? Let’s check it out. 

Manufacturing Contraction

As you might already know, China is attempting to move from a manufacturing and investment-based economy to a services and consumption-based economy. This might make sense for the long haul, but as of right now China has an aging consumer population that was the result of the one-child policy and consumers aren’t as confident as they were just a few short years ago due to extreme volatility in equities. Just as in the United States, the stock market can have a significant psychological impact on consumers. As far as the services sector is concerned, the growth is being seen in baristas and bartenders. This definitely helps when those same consumers are coming from poverty, but baristas and bartenders aren’t going to drive the second-largest economy in the world.

This all means that manufacturing still plays a big role and that’s not good news. In February, manufacturing contracted for the seventh consecutive month, with PMI coming in at 49.0 versus 49.4 in January. Any number below 50 indicates contraction, whereas any number above 50 indicates expansion. This reading shouldn’t shock anyone since GDP growth has been slowing. It’s all connected. 

Even if that’s not concerning to you, consider the fact that China just announced it would lay off between five and six million workers over the next three years. This is a small number given China’s 1.35 billion population, but it doesn’t help, and it might portend a more ominous situation.

The dilemma is that the only way China can help its economy is to boost liquidity. But if it boosts liquidity, then its credit profile could take a significant hit. Take it from Moody's.

Moody’s Downgrade

Moody’s just downgraded China’s Aa3 government bond to negative from stable. It cited government debt, large and rising liabilities on the government balance sheet, and a fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows that highlight currency and growth risks. The following quote is from Moody’s: “High and rising SOE (State Owned Enterprise) leverage raises the risk of either a sharp slowdown in economic growth, as debt servicing constrains other spending, or a market deterioration on bank asset quality.” According to Moody’s calculations, China’s government debt is currently 40.6% of GDP versus 32.5% of GDP in 2012. Moody’s expects government debt to reach 43% of GDP in 2017.

Moody’s also noted that China’s foreign exchange reserves currently total $3.2 trillion. This is a positive, but that number stood at more than $3.9 trillion in 2014. Moody’s expects China to experience a gradual economic slowdown. The only reason it’s expected to be gradual is because of authorities supporting growth.

The Bottom Line

China’s economy is absolutely slowing and the Chinese government isn’t sure how to approach the problem. It can either allow for the economy to falter and plan for the next boom while minimizing debt accumulation or add liquidity to the system in order to temporarily fuel growth. The latter would increase the risk of reduced credit quality and would likely have no sustainable impact anyway. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/041816/chinese-economy-backed-corner.asp