興業銀行經濟學家認為衰退將不可避免的出現

 Dan Moskowitz

法國興業銀行的全球戰略師Albert Edwards認為經濟衰退的出現是不可避免的。他語言的根據是歷史盈利趨勢。根據Albert Edwards的說法，由於反對重新分配資本進行增長，在股息分配和回購上的問題已經增加。這導致了工人由於缺乏經驗的生產問題。現在的勞動力成本和科技泡沫時期一樣高。與此同時，產品和服務生產商正失去定價權。這些問題都使他們進入了一個兩難境地。

現在的消費者都在謹慎消費。盡管最近油價大幅下跌，大多數消費者都把節省下來的錢儲蓄起來而不是花掉他們。這有時候與學生債務和健康保險有關，這些在過去幾年中成本增加都過高。消費者比過去存儲更多資金的另一個原因是對未來缺乏信心。同樣的，人們知道他們必須進行更多的退休儲蓄因為固定收入市場的收益十分微小甚至沒有收入。

如果生產商缺少定價權，他們就不能產生足夠的收入彌補勞動力成本的增加。如果他們不能支付增加的勞動力成本，他們就不能與同行業競爭並失去市場份額。在這種環境下，資產狀況最好的公司表現將更加優異，僅僅因為他們能更好的度過難關。在股票方面，他們可以繼續增加股息並回購更多股份。後者將減少股票總量並增加每股收益，這將有助於推動股價上漲。

Downunder Daily的創始人和前摩根士丹利分析師Gerard Minack認為當前的利潤衰退主要是因為能源闆塊的疲軟並且他認為可以和1985年的能源收入衰退相比。他同時還表示衰退是隨著美聯儲的緊縮政策出現的。

收入衰退

放眼全局，Edwards擔心利潤的大幅度下降可能導致經濟衰退，即使美聯儲採取溫和態度。這將是一個苦難的境地，因為美聯儲可能沒有可操作的空間。

Edwards還指出現在和1985年不一樣，因為現在的GDP增長接近於零，而1985年是4%。換句話說，Edwards認為2017年GDP可能不會出現增長。Edwards同時還表示美聯儲在1986年把利率8%削減到6%。然而在不久的未來，美聯儲沒有太多削減利率的空間。然而美國國內不太可能接受負利率政策。負利率政策在包括歐洲和日本在內的其他經濟體沒有產生預期的作用。

經濟衰退的另一個潛在風險是股票抛售可能降低對經濟的信心。雖然美聯儲的溫和態度使發生這種情況的幾率很低，但是根據歷史走勢這種情況發生的幾率很高。目前，標準普爾的遠期市盈率為16.8，而10年平均市盈率為14.2，5年平均市盈率為14.4。

總結

目前的收入並不讓人印象深刻。得益於低利率，這種情況已經持續多年並且股市開始反彈。你必須確定收入或者美聯儲哪個影響更大。

SocGen Economist: Recession is Inevitable

By Dan Moskowitz

Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, believes a recession is inevitable. His prophecy relates to historical earnings trends. According to Edwards, part of the problem has been increased allocation to dividends and buybacks for several years as opposed to allocating that capital to growth. This has led to a production problem in regards to workers’ lack of experience. Labor costs are currently as high as during the tech bubble. At the same time, producers of products and services are losing pricing power. This presents a dilemma.

Today’s consumer is cost conscious. Despite the recent plunge in gas prices, most consumers are saving the extra money as opposed to spending it. This sometimes relates to student debt and/or health insurance, which have both seen exorbitant cost increases over the past few years. Another reason consumers might be saving more than in the past is a lack of confidence in the future. Also, people saving for retirement know they must allocate more capital to retirement due to little to no returns in the fixed-income market. 

If producers lack pricing power, then they can’t generate enough revenue to cover the increased labor costs. If they can’t pay the increased labor costs, then they can’t compete with their peers and lose market share. In this environment, the companies with the strongest capital positions are likely to outperform, simply because they can weather the storm better. In regards to equities, they can continue to hike their dividends and buy back more shares. The latter reduces share count and increases earnings per share, which then helps move the stock price higher.

Earnings Recession

Looking at the bigger picture, Edwards fears that a deep profits downturn might lead to recession, even with the Federal Reserve taking a dovish stance. This would be a difficult scenario because the Fed would have little maneuverability.

Gerard Minack, founder of Downunder Daily and former Morgan Stanley analyst, feels as though the current profits recession is primarily due to weakness in the energy sector and he compares it to the 1985 energy earnings recession. He also stated that recessions are only accompanied by Fed tightening.

Edwards also points out that it’s not 1985 because current GDP growth is close to nil while 1985 GDP growth was 4%. In other words, Edwards doesn’t see any possibility of GDP growth in 2017. Another factor that Edwards points to is that the Federal Reserve cut rates to 6% from 8% in 1986. Looking to the near future, there isn’t much place for the Fed to move on the downside. And negative interest rates, what once seemed like a possibility in the United States, has been attacked by economists and taken off the table domestically. Negative interest rates haven’t proven to have the intended impact in other economies including Japan and Europe. 

Another potential risk for recession is an equity sell off that could lead to reduced confidence in the economy. With a dovish Federal Reserve, this is less likely of a possibility, but valuations are high on a historical basis. Currently, the S&P 500 has a forward p/e of 16.8 versus a 10-year average of 14.2 and a five-year average of 14.4.

The Bottom Line

Earnings aren’t impressive at the moment. This has been the case for years and the market has rallied, thanks to low interest rates. You have to determine what will hold more weight: earnings or the Fed. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/041516/socgen-economist-recession-inevitable.asp