投資者為什麼放棄日本股票？

 Dan Moskowitz

安倍晉三在2012年12月成為日本首相時投資者非常高興，尤其是外國投資者。日本股票的70%來自國外投資。今年到目前為止，投資者已經抛售了價值460億美元的日本股票。

2013年9月，日本首相安倍晉三參觀了紐約證券交易所並傳遞出“日本正在卷土重來”的信號。外國資金蜂擁至日本股市並擡高了它們的價格。問題是日本央行的負利率政策並沒有取得預期的效果。如果負利率政策不起作用，那麼日本央行可運作的空間將非常小。然而，日本正在計劃進行超過1840億美元的雙重刺激。

這將起到作用嗎？沒有人能確定這一舉動在近期的效果，但是有事實表明人工擡高資產的價格通常不會取得好結果。例如，資金已經出現連續13週離開日本市場。

感知在投資中起到非常大的作用。這可以由美聯儲決定在2016年加息兩次而不是4次證明。盡管經濟數據沒出現明顯改善，這一改變還是造就了美國市場的反彈。

投資角度

這並不向看起來那麼簡單。安倍晉三將不會停止消費。如果經濟出現放緩的迹象，他會增加更多的消費。這可能有機會吸引外國投資者返回，再次使日本股市走高。這一情況與美國類似，但是日本由於其人口老齡化程度而更加糟糕。隨著人們年齡的增加，他們的消費就會減少。和美國不同是，日本沒有龐大的千禧一代在不久的未來支撐消費。

綜合這些因素，交易者可能考慮做多，而投資者則考慮做空。

直接做空日本股票的唯一方式是通過0.95%費率的2倍反向ETF。EWV（ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan）追蹤摩根士利丹日本指數的2倍逆向表現。在去年它增值了2.04%，但是自2007年11月6日成立以來卻貶值了83.32%。

如果你想通過ETF做多日本股票，可以使用EWJ（iShares MSCI Japan）和DXJ（WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF）。

EWJ追蹤摩根士利丹日本指數的表現，包括小盤股、中盤股和大盤股，主要關註消費品、金融和工業。EWJ淨資產為171.2億美元。它去年下跌8.88%，自1996年3月12日成立以來下跌27.97%。它目前提供1.34%的股息收益率。該ETF的買賣費率平均為0.48%。

DXJ追蹤智慧樹日本對沖股指（WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index）的表現，該指數在反映日元兌美元表現的同時追蹤日本指數的表現。DXJ的淨資產為97.9億美元，在去年貶值22.15%，自2006年6月成立以來貶值17.13%。它當前的收益率為1.64%，費率為0.49%。

總結

日本經濟正在處於通貨緊縮階段，但是安倍晉三極其極端的態度可能引發日本股市的另一個反彈。這最終可能不會取得太好的結果，而外國投資者可能已經有所察覺。

Why Investors are Bailing on Japanese Stocks

By Dan Moskowitz

When Shinzo Abe became Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012 investors were excited, especially foreign investors. Seventy-percent of Japanese equities consist of foreign investment. So far this year, $46 billion has been pulled out of Japanese equities by investors, who include BlackRock Inc.

In September 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the New York Stocks Exchange with a message of “Japan is back.” Investors listened. Foreign money poured into Japanese stocks, driving them higher. The problem is that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) negative interest rate policy has not been as effective as anticipated. If negative interest rates don’t work, then the BOJ has little room to move. However, Japan now has plans to double stimulus exceeding $184 billion. 

Will it work? Nobody knows for sure in regards to the near future, but it has been proven that artificially inflating asset prices will not end well. For example, money has been moving out of Japan for 13 consecutive weeks.

Perception plays a big role in the investment world. This can be proven by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hike rates twice instead of four times in 2016. This change in stance has fueled a U.S. market rally despite no significant improvements for economic readings.

Investment Angles

This isn’t as easy as it seems. Shinzo Abe will not stop spending. If the economy appears as though it will slow, he will spend more. This, in turn, has the potential to draw foreign investors back in, which will again fuel equities higher. It’s a similar situation to the United States with the Federal Reserve, only that Japan’s situation is worse due to demographics and the second-oldest population in the world. As people age, they spend less. And unlike the United States, there is no large Millennial generation to act as a second wave down the road. 

Taking all these factors together, traders might consider playing the bull side while investors might consider playing the short side.

The only way to short Japan directly is via a 2x inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF) that comes with a 0.95% expense ratio. The ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV), tracks 2x the inverse performance of the MSCI Japan Index. It has appreciated 2.04% over the past year, but depreciated 83.32% since its inception on November 6, 2007.

If you want to go long on Japan via an ETF, look into the iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) and WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ).

EWJ tracks the performance of the MSCI Japan Index, which included small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap stocks, with the primary focus being consumer discretionary, financials and industrials. EWJ has net assets of $17.12 billion. It has depreciated 8.88% over the past year and 27.97% since its inception on March 12, 1996. It currently offers a dividend yield of 1.34%. The expense ratio is right at the ETF average of 0.48%. 

DXJ tracks the performance of the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index, which tracks Japanese equities while also neutralizing exposure to the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar. DXJ has net assets of $9.79 billion, has depreciated 22.15% over the past year as well as 17.13% since its inception on June 16, 2006. It currently yields 1.64% and has an expense ratio of 0.49%.

The Bottom Line

The Japanese economy is deflationary, but Shinzo Abe is extremely aggressive which could lead to another rally in Japanese stocks. Ultimately, it isn’t likely to end well and foreign investors might be sensing that. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042016/why-investors-are-bailing-japanese-stocks.asp