在負收益環境中使用槓桿

 

理解負收益經濟

歐洲央行在2014年9月將存款利率設置成-0.2%，2015年瑞士成為首個提供負收益十年期債券的歐盟國家。到2015年末，三分之一的歐盟國家提了供負收益債券。法定貨幣發行的一個負面影響是通貨膨脹，大多數資本市場都試圖達到2%的通脹目標。相反的，通貨緊縮和槓桿的原因是債務過度，這是自2008年金融危機以來許多國家不斷增長的趨勢。

 

當整體經濟增長放緩或者停滞時法定貨幣系統出現通貨緊縮，正如2008年金融危機後發生的。貨幣的發行取決於法定貨幣系統債務的發行。然而，如果沒有經濟增長，放緩的經濟將因限制消費者的債務增加，因此引起通貨緊縮。

 

負收益工具

歐洲央行和日本央行試圖通過存款和債券的負收益對抗通貨緊縮。這是希望這些措施能鼓勵歐洲銀行將資金儲備借貸給市場以創造經濟增長，而不是放在歐洲央行進行虧損存儲。當市場已經產生了太多的債務，貨幣發行將停止並需要一段時間的通貨緊縮甚至是債務大赦，通貨緊縮將會降低債務危機。債務產生和之後一段時間的通貨緊縮在歷史上被用來消滅大部分的債務。例如，這個策略在18和19世紀形成了一個系統，使通貨緊縮之後出現強烈的進步。

 

債務大赦

債務大赦本質上是在通貨緊縮時期把財富從債權人轉移向債務人。例如，美國政府在1819年終止了農民的農業債務償還。大部分這些債務被免除。美國1933年從金本位向法定貨幣轉移時也免除了40%的債務。這些通貨緊縮的週期取決於轉移或者減輕債務的負收益工具。

 

通貨緊縮中槓桿的使用

在負收益環境的投資者的擔憂不僅僅是得到負收益的可能，而且還有對經濟繼續下降的趨勢消除大部分投資資產價值的擔憂。負收益債券似乎成為了當代投資者提供了一個避風港。負收益債券使得投資者能對系統中的進一步下跌進行投資對沖。

 

如果一個投資者購買收益率為-2%的債券，到債券到期時其投資本金只減少2%。然而，如果經濟在相同時間内下跌4%、6%或者8%，這2%的損失將能提供一個更小的損失。如果一個投資者使用槓桿購買債券，那麼這個優勢將會被放大。然而如果經濟回複或者僅通貨緊縮1%，那麼-2%的債券收益率將會比在市場中虧損的多。

 

在任何市場中使用槓桿都要小心，因為這將放大任何盈利和虧損。當進行高風險投資時，槓桿應當僅僅是投資組合的一部分。負收益債券可能從2016年4月開始在歐洲和其他任何地方提供一個很好的方式度過通脹緊縮階段。

 

Consider Leverage in a Negative Yield World

By TK McDonald

Most investors will not have to deal with deflationary pressures in their lifetimes. The last time the world’s financial system dealt with deflation was before World War II. As a result, the idea of negative yields for bank deposits and bonds is not commonly understood. The current global financial crisis in 2016 has placed central banks in a position, especially in Europe and Japan, to use negative yields to push money into their economies. However, investors may be able to take advantage, with substantial risk, of a deflationary negative yield scenario through leverage.

 

Understanding a Negative Yield Economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) set rates for deposits at a historic negative rate of 0.2% in September 2014, and Switzerland became the first country in the European Union (EU) to offer a 10-year bond with a negative yield in early 2015. By the end of 2015, one-third of EU countries were offering negative yield bonds. A side effect of money creation in a fiat currency system is inflation, on which most capital markets try to attain a 2% target. Alternatively, deflation and deleveraging is the result of too much debt creation, which has been the growing trend in many countries since the 2008 financial crisis.

 

Deflation in a fiat currency system happens when overall growth of an economy slows or stalls, as has happened since the global financial crisis in 2008. The issuance of money depends on the issuance of debt in the fiat currency system. However, without economic growth, a slowing economy constrains consumers from increasing their debt loads, thereby causing deflation.

 

Negative Yield Instruments

The ECB and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have tried to fight deflation by offering negative yields on deposits and bonds. The hope was that these measures would encourage European banks to lend their cash reserves into the market to create economic growth, instead of placing them in money-losing financial deposits with the ECB. When the market has created too much debt, money creation stalls and requires a period of deflation, which eases the debt crisis. This period of debt creation, followed by deflation or even debt jubilees, has historically been used to wipe out large portions of debt. For example, this strategy was used to create a system in which deflation, followed by intense progress, occurred in the 18th and 19th centuries.

 

A Debt Jubilee

A debt jubilee is essentially a way to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors in times of deflation. For example, the U.S. government imposed a stop to agricultural debt payments for farmers in 1819. Large portions of these debts were forgiven. Even the United States' transfer from the gold standard to the fiat currency in 1933 devalued the U.S. dollar and reduced debts by as much as 40% in some instances. The lengths of these deflationary periods depend on the negative yield instruments used to transfer or ease debt.

 

Leveraging for Greater Deflation

For investors in a negative yield environment, the concern is not just the possibility of getting a negative yield, but that the economy will continue to spiral in a downward deflationary trend that wipes out a large portion of an investment's asset value. Negative yield bonds seem to be a modern way to give investors a safe haven. A negative-yield bond allows investors to hedge their investments against further declines in the system.

 

If an investor purchases a bond with a -2% yield, the principal investment declines by only 2% by the time the bond matures. However, if the economy devalues by 4, 6 or 8% over the same period, the 2% bond loss will have beaten the market, providing a smaller loss. If an investor leverages a bond in this market, the gain would be magnified. However, if the market recovers and deflation only hits 1%, then a 2% bond yield will lose more value than the market.

 

It is important to exercise care when leveraging in any market, as it will magnify any gain or loss. When considering high-risk investments, leveraging should only represent a portion of an investor's portfolio. Negative-yield bonds may provide a better way to survive the deflationary period occurring in Europe and elsewhere, as of April 2016.

 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050116/consider-leverage-negative-yield-world.asp