美聯儲鲍威爾：加息在即 疲軟生產力是難題

美聯儲官員鲍威爾週四表示，雖然通貨膨脹達到了預期，但生產力增長緩慢可能會將利率維持在大蕭條時期的利率水平之下。

最近幾週，加息問題再度成為熱議話題，美聯儲官員傑羅姆·鲍威爾便就這一問題發表了評論。但他沒有阻止投資者對加息的預測。

他說：“如果後續的數據能夠繼續支撐這一預期，那麼美聯儲加息的時機便不再遙遠。”他認為，第二季度增長強勁、就業率增加、失業率減少、收入增加，這些都是極其重要的。

鲍威爾在演講中強調了長期經濟趨勢。他認為近來的生產數據疲軟主要歸咎於需求疲軟以及技術創新的缺失。勞動力供應不足也會降低潛在的產出，但最近的數據有所回升。

他說，在危機期間，長期潛在增長率已由3%降至2%。

潛在產出增長率過低會阻礙加息的進程。雖然產出差距已被彌補，通脹水平也回复到2%，但當前利率仍低於危機前水平。

鲍威爾表示，近來的證據表明，經濟衰退造成的影響是持久的。分析家們用三分之一的時間強調：沒有永遠的供應危機；又用三分之一的時間來強調：正在減少的是潛在產出水平而不是增長率；還用剩下的三分之一的時間強調：潛在產出水平和增長率都在減少。

他說：“不幸的是，種種現象表明，美國可能會進入衰退期。”

Fed’s Powell: Interest-rate hike may come soon, but weak productivity will cap increases

Slower productivity growth may keep interest rates below where they stood before the Great Recession even after inflation returns to its target, a top Federal Reserve official said Thursday.

The comments from Fed. Gov. Jerome Powell, to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, come as the interest-rate debate has heated up in recent weeks. Powell did nothing to curb expectations of a rate increase this summer.

“If incoming data continue to support those expectations, I would see it as appropriate to continue to gradually raise the federal-funds rate. Depending on the incoming data and the evolving risks, another rate increase may be appropriate fairly soon,” Powell said.

He said it would be important to see a strengthening of growth in the second quarter along with “strong” job growth, further reductions in the unemployment rate and other measures of slack, and increases in wages.

Powell devoted much of his speech to longer-term economic trends. He discussed recent weak productivity numbers, which he blamed both on a weak recovery in demand as well as a lack of technological innovation. He said a low labor supply also has held back potential output, but recent data on that front is more encouraging.

He said estimates of long-run potential growth have dropped from about 3% to 2% since the crisis.

“Lower potential output growth would mean that interest rates will remain below their precrisis levels even after the output gap is fully closed and inflation returns to 2%,” said Powell.

Powell said recent evidence is that the recession has left behind lasting damage. He said analysis suggests that a third of the time, there’s no permanent supply-side damage; a third of the time, there’s a reduction in the level of potential output but not the growth rate; and a third of the time, there’s a reduction in both the level of output and the growth rate.

 “Unfortunately, recent experience suggests that the United States is at risk of falling in the last category,” he said.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-interest-rate-hike-may-come-soon-but-weak-productivity-will-cap-increases-2016-05-26