對沖基金經理們對中國持看跌態度的三個原因

 J.B. Maveric 2016年6月1日

中國股票市場自2015年中期遭遇了嚴重的下跌，恒生指數下跌超過30%，從2015年4月的28133點跌到2016年5月的19852點。越來越多的人開始對中國股票和整體經濟產生擔憂。包括第三點基金、橋水聯合基金、護照資本和新加坡的風和投資在内的許多著名對沖基金的基金經理都曾公開表示過對中國在未來幾年的表現持消極看法。

在這些消極觀點背後有許多依據。這些對沖基金經理引用的三個主要原因是GDP增長率下降、迫在眉睫的銀行業危機和已經對美元大幅度貶值的人民幣持續下跌壓力。Crescat Capital的Nils Jenson在2016年三月發表的看法中曾表現出這三個原因。

GDP萎縮、通貨膨脹和信貸問題

在2016年第一季度給投資者的審查信中，Crescat Capital的能源和材料分析師Nils Jenson說中國正在處於貨幣危機和銀行危機的邊緣，因為人民幣的價格被過度高估且銀行信貸問題持續增長。

在那封信中，Nils Jenson指出中國人民銀行（PBOC）已經把中國的M2貨幣供應量增加到21.7萬億美元，是世界上最大的貨幣供應。這一數值比美國多75%，而中國的GDP則比美國的GDP少57%。Nils Jenson認為這一比例表明人民幣在本質上嚴重被高估。

過度的鈔票印刷和寬松的貸款政策支撐了中國經濟的高增長率，但是借貸的增長減小了中國經濟的回報率。不幸的是，中國在債務增長加速的同時經濟增長卻在放緩。中國銀行業即將出現麻煩的一個主要徵兆是中國銀行業的不良貸款比率高達驚人的22%。 

中國政府基本上忽視了正在增長的債務問題，而通過增加貸款來防止人民幣的大幅下跌。在Nils Jenson看來，隨著資金外流給人民幣的下行壓力越來越大這種財政政策最終將會失敗。

銀行系統用來防止隨著資本外流而引起的貨幣下跌風險的中國國際投資淨頭寸從2015年9月的1.5萬億美元下降到2016年1月的1.2萬億美元。中國不斷增加貨幣供應使國際投資淨頭寸相對M2貨幣供應的比率從2011年的15%下降到2016年的6%。

總而言之，中國將無力支撐人民幣和銀行系統，關於這點，Jenson認為中國將不可避免的發生信貸和貨幣危機。他和其他的對沖基金經理估計人民幣可能貶值30%到50%。

其他對沖基金經理對中國的看法

尼克斯聯合基金的Jim Chanos指出危險來自中國經濟對建築業的持續依賴，該行業占中國總經濟的50%多。相比之下，西方發達國家的這一比率只在10%到15%之間。Chanos認為中國依賴房地產開發支撐經濟，而不是通過整體國内需求和出口的增長的方式是不可能長期持續的。 

綠光資本的David Einhorn對中國經濟持看跌態度的原因是通脹增長和經濟增長率下降，他指出中國股市的大幅度下跌表明大型投資者正在撤出中國。 

風和投資的合夥創始人Matt Hu說他的公司在2015年末開始大規模做空中國股票，因為他預測中國股市持續多年的牛市即將結束。他認為會出現下跌的主要闆塊是汽車和零售行業，風和投資已經開始做空長城汽車和零售商六福集團。

3 Reasons Why Hedge Funds Are Bearish on China (GWLLF, 0590.HK)

By J.B. Maverick | June 1, 2016 — 10:00 PM EDT

China's stock market has suffered a severe downturn since mid-2015, with the Hang Seng Index declining nearly 30%, from 28,133 in April 2015 to 19,852 in May 2016. There are increasing concerns about stocks in China and the nation's overall economy. A number of prominent hedge fund managers, such as Dan Loeb’s Third Point, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates, Passport Capital and Singapore-basedF&H Fund Management, have openly expressed bearish views on China’s fortunes for the next several years.

There is plenty of rationale behind these pessimistic views. Three of the major reasons cited by hedge fund managers are a declining growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP), a looming banking crisis and continuing downward pressure on the Chinese yuan, which has already suffered a substantial decline in value relative to the U.S. dollar. These major themes are reflected in the views expressed by Crescat Capital's Nils Jenson in March 2016.

GDP Contraction, Currency Expansion and Credit Problems

In a first quarter 2016 review letter to investors, Nils Jenson, an energy and materials analyst at Crescat Capital, wrote that China is on the verge of both a currency crisis and a banking crisis, due to the Chinese yuan being extremely overvalued and growing credit problems at Chinese banks.

In the letter, Jenson noted that China's central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has ballooned the nation's M2 money supply to $21.7 trillion, the largest money supply in the world. This M2 money supply is approximately 75% larger than that of the United States, despite the fact that China's total GDP is 57% less than the total U.S. GDP. Jenson argued that this contrast illustrates the severely overvalued nature of the yuan.

Overblown money printing and easy credit creation have fueled a high economic growth rate in China, but are showing signs of diminishing returns, with increased borrowing producing diminishing rates of return in China's economy. Furthermore, China's GDP growth rate is slowing at the same time that its debt growth is accelerating. One of the major warning signs of impending trouble in China's banking industry is a nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio that has mushroomed up to an alarming 22%. 

The Chinese government is essentially ignoring its increasing debt problem by extending more and more credit to prevent a free fall in the value of the yuan. In Jenson's view, this fiscal policy will ultimately fail, as pushing net capital outflows higher just puts more downside pressure on the yuan.

China's net international investment position (NIIP), a measure of the reserves a country's banking system has available to defend its currency against downward pressure from increased capital outflows, declined from $1.5 trillion in September 2015 to $1.2 trillion in January 2016. The nation's continuously increasing money supply means its NIIP relative to the M2 money supply has dropped from 15% in 2011 down to only 6% in 2016.

In short, China is running out of financial ammunition to prop up the yuan and the Chinese banking industry, and at this point, Jenson sees a major Chinese credit and currency crisis as virtually unavoidable. Estimates from him and other hedge fund managers forecast a possible 30 to 50% devaluation in the yuan.

Observations on China From Other Hedge Fund Managers

Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates points out the danger posed by the continuing reliance of the Chinese economy on new construction, which accounts for more than 50% of the total Chinese economy. In contrast, the average in developed economies in the west is just 10 to 15%. Chanos sees the Chinese economy's dependence on real estate development for growth, as opposed to growth in overall domestic demand or exports, as unsustainable in the long term.

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital bases his bearish China stance on increasing inflation and a decline in the nation's growth rate, noting the severe downturn in the Chinese stock market as evidence of large investors pulling out of China.

Matt Hu, co-founder of F&H Fund Management, says his firm began adopting large short positions in China stocks in late 2015 as it foresaw the end of a multiyear bull market in Chinese equities. Some of the main market sectors where Hu expects declines are the automotive and retail sectors, which has F&H betting against companies such as Great Wall Motor Company Ltd. (OTC: GWLLF) and retailer Luk Fook Holdings (International) Ltd. (0590.HK).

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/060116/3-reasons-why-hedge-funds-are-bearish-china-gwllf-0590hk.asp