Neuberger Berman 2016年6月3日
溫和的美聯儲政策和疲軟的美元可以為工資和企業利潤增長創造空間。
我最近被邀請到彭博電視台發表對股市、美聯儲加息、美國消費者和零售闆塊的看法。
思考這三個主題是怎麼互相關聯是一件非常有趣的事情。他們之間的聯系是什麼呢？可能是生產力。
工資、價格和利潤
上週美國大型企業聯合會發佈的最新《全球經濟展望》中指出美國GDP在今年同比下降0.2%。這是1982年以來首次的同比下降。
在生產力增長緩慢的背景下，很難同時維持工資增長、有利的通脹和企業盈利增加。同時維持兩個看起來是可能的，但是不能全部實現，2014年中期以來的市場選擇已經明顯表明我們正在處於一個低通脹和工資增長的企業盈利衰退時期。
在一個月以前我警告過在這個市場中要謹慎行事，從那時開始2016年的企業盈利預測已經悄然增長了17倍。
從表面上看，這些企業盈利實現的可能性並不大。當生產力和工資增長導致需求增加，將會引起價格上漲、利潤空間加大和出現有利的通貨膨脹。現在，全球競争和美元的強勢已經侵蝕了企業的定價能力，導致了工資上漲、通脹微弱和企業利潤下降。
盡管消費者信心高漲但是工業舉步維艱
這一動態幫助我們解釋為什麼制造業指數上週在住房銷售達到24年新高的同時會出現令人非常失望的表現。這只是美國工業和美國消費者出現鮮明對比的一個例子。消費形式正在發生的重大轉變將會很好的解釋這種動態，其中包括網站購物增加而街頭購物減少、更願意購買已經嘗試過的商品。
如果想要恢複企業盈利，那麼必須是工資增長放緩或者以公司定價能力形式體現的通貨膨脹變得強勁。普通讀者可能會猜測我們的根據在哪裡。上週，Brad Tank發表了他對區間交易美元的預測並表示美元逐漸疲軟的趨勢和之前的油價是企業收入恢複的基礎。兩者同時也會刺激通脹增長。
這裡就體現出了美聯儲的作用。其2016年下半年的溫和態度將會加劇美元疲軟和促進通脹上漲。
最近的“美聯儲說法方式”沒有表現出這方面的迹象，這在很大程度上增加我們對在今年進行多次加息的預測。市場預測6月的加息可能性在30%左右，但是這個數字是在幾星期以前的4%增長上來的。事實是風險資產已經採取行動，銀行股上漲和黃金抛售可能刺激聯邦市場公開委員會。
美聯儲將會受到多少政治上的影響
我們團隊的共識是今年將會出現兩次加息，但是不是在6月，而是在9月和12月。為什麼不是6月呢？因為我們還在等待第二季度的GDP數據，並且第一季度的數據非常不盡人意。值得慶幸的是，美聯儲的六月會議恰好在英國的退歐公投之前，這可以作為鴿派的Bill Dudley和鷹派的Robert Kaplan暫時停止争論的理由。
美聯儲將會受到多少政治上的影響的問題使我更甯願相信美聯儲的加息次數將會減少。如果在7月和8月不發佈消息，聯邦市場公開委員會的加息就會面臨沒有傳遞出消息的風險。之後我們將會經歷勞動節和大選，到那時你將會原諒央行的觀望態度。
鑒於這些敏感的問題，我不會驚訝於美聯儲直到12月才進行下一次加息。這可能會給美元帶來一些波動、鞏固通脹的恢複並且可能為工資上漲和為當前股市做出緩沖提供空間。
The Market Plays a (Fed) Waiting Game
By Neuberger Berman | June 3, 2016 — 2:00 PM EDT
A dovish Fed and weaker dollar could create space for both wages and profits to rise.
I was invited onto Bloomberg Television recently to talk about my outlook on equity markets, the path for Fed rate hikes, and the U.S. consumer and retail sector.
It’s interesting to think about how those three subjects relate to one another. The missing link? It might be productivity.
Wages, Prices and Profits
Last week the latest Global Economic Outlook from The Conference Board projected a fall in U.S. GDP per hour worked of 0.2% this year. That would mark the first year-over-year decline since 1982.
With low productivity growth as the background, it’s extremely difficult to sustain a mix of wage growth, modest inflation and accelerating corporate earnings. Two of the three would seem possible, but not all of them, and since mid-2014 the choice the market has made has been obvious: We’ve had an earnings recession with rising wages, alongside steady, low inflation.
I warned against chasing this market over a month ago, and since then it has crept up to a multiple of around 17 times 2016 projected earnings.
On the face of things, it’s not obvious those earnings will materialize. When productivity was growing, rising wages led to more demand, which enabled price increases, wider margins and modest inflation. Today, global competition and a strong dollar have eroded corporate pricing power, leaving us with rising wages, subdued inflation and meager earnings.
Industry Is Struggling Despite High Consumer Confidence
This dynamic helps explain how we got such a disappointing reading from the Richmond Fed manufacturing index last week, at the same time as we got the biggest monthly rise in new home sales in 24 years. These are just the latest in a series of data points drawing a stark contrast between the moods of U.S. industry (which worries about the strong dollar, cheap oil and falling profits) and U.S. consumers (who wield a strong currency to buy cheaper gasoline and stuff to furnish their new homes). Significant shifts in consumption patterns—more online rather than high-street shopping, more purchases of experiences over goods—amplify this dynamic.
If earnings are to recover, either wage growth must slow or inflation, in the form of companies’ pricing power, must take hold. Regular readers may guess where our bias lies. Last week, Brad Tank outlined his expectations for a range-trading dollar and for a while we’ve said that a flat-to-weaker dollar and a firmer oil price were a foundation for earnings recovery. Both would stoke inflation, too.
And that is where the Fed comes in. A dovish second half of 2016 would cement this subdued-dollar, higher-inflation theme.
Recent “Fed speak” does little to support the thesis, apparently softening us up for more than one hike this year. Markets put the probability of a June hike at around 30%, but that’s up from 4% just a couple of weeks ago. The fact that risk assets have taken this in their stride, bank stocks have rallied and gold has sold off might embolden the FOMC.
How ‘Political’ Will the Fed Be?
The consensus on our teams is indeed for two hikes, not beginning in June, but at the September and December meetings. Why not in June? Because we’ll still be waiting on the Q2 GDP print and, lest we forget, the Q1 numbers were very disappointing. Furthermore, the June meeting comes just before the U.K.’s referendum on EU membership—which both the dovish Bill Dudley and the hawkish Robert Kaplan have cited as a reason to hold fire.
It is the question of how “political” the Fed might be that makes me err on the side of fewer rate hikes than some of my colleagues. Without a press conference in July and August, the FOMC risks hiking without being able to shape the message. Then we’re past Labor Day and deep into the clamor of the general election, during which you’d forgive the central bank for sitting on the sidelines.
With these sensitivities to consider, I would not be surprised to have to wait until December for the next hike. That could take some wind out of the dollar’s sails, underpin the ongoing recovery in inflation—and, potentially, free up margins to rise along with wages and place a cushion under today’s equity market multiples.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/neuberger-berman/articles/markets/060316/market-plays-fed-waiting-game.asp