為什麼美元不能對美國銀行有所說明

 Lawrence Pines  2016年6月30日

2016年的銀行仍在努力從2008年的經濟大蕭條中恢復。美國有史以來納稅人進行的最大救助又對美國銀行產生了新的挑戰。2008年疲軟的經濟環境導致美聯儲採取激進措施進行減息。這個歷史上最低水平的利率壓低了放貸的盈利能力。與此同時，籌集資金和限制自營交易的新規定進一步壓縮了利潤。

一些分析人士認為提高利率能解決銀行業遇到的這一問題。首先，更高的利率能夠增加銀行放貸的利潤。2008年到2016年的低利率已經嚴重壓縮了銀行利潤。歐洲央行將歐元區的存款基準利率設定為負值，這一舉措更嚴重影響了銀行的盈利。德國最大銀行德意志銀行的股價幾乎處於歷史最低點。

其次，更高的利率往往能帶來更好的消費者支出並促進工資增長。改善的經濟環境能對銀行的盈利能力起到進一步的促進。然而，增加利率會導致美元升值，尤其是在美元利率增加比其它貨幣高的時候。那麼接下來的問題就是美元升值是否會對美國銀行有所說明。

美元強勢有助於增加房貸利潤

由於金融危機的推動，美元指數（USDX）從2008年7月的85點變為2009年三月的97點。在2009年3月之後美指開始緩慢下降，到2011年7月變為80點。在接下來的三年半左右時間中美指都在80點左右徘徊，之後在2015年迅速走高。一份同時期的美國銀行淨利息收益率調查表明銀行的盈利能力在美元下跌時受創，並隨著美元上漲回复。淨利息收益率測量銀行利息收益與向借款人支付利息的差額，因此是銀行盈利能力的主要測量手段。淨利息收益率從2010年第一季度的3.83%下降到2015年第一季度的2.95%。之後上漲到2016年第一季度的3.02%。

美元與銀行盈利能力的關鍵測量手段之間的關聯非常明顯。利率下降通常伴隨著美元疲軟。盡管美聯儲直到2015年12月才擡高利率，但是2015年美指的升高卻與美聯儲有密切關係。如果美聯儲提高利率並且美元升值，那麼淨利息收益率可能會上升。

美元強勢損害大宗商品

雖然美元強勢有助於提高淨利息收益率，但是卻可能不會使銀行的其他業務受益。大宗商品價格同樣顯示出與美元有很強的相關性。一項關於美元指數與原油價格的調查顯示盡管程度有所不同，二者在過去十年的走勢呈相反方向。在對美指和更多大宗商品的調查中也呈現出相同的關係。全球大宗商品以美元計價，因此二者之間通常都會反向移動。

2016年2月的公開數據顯示美國銀行在大宗商品領域有大量投資。摩根大通在石油和天然氣勘探行業的投資占其批發信貸的6%，金屬和採礦行業占2%。該銀行在石油天然氣勘探行業的投資為5.5億美元，在金屬和採礦行業的投資為0.68億美元。與此同時，花旗銀行有9%的投資在石油和天然氣行業，26%的投資在勘探開發行業。花旗銀行有32%的投資在非投資級債務上。

關鍵結論

美元強勢可能對銀行業產生兩個互相矛盾的結果。一方面，美元強勢可能會使大宗商品持續疲軟，這可能會嚴重影響大銀行的資產負債表及損益表。另一方面，美元強勢可以改善銀行的貸款利潤率。投資者面臨的問題是改善的貸款利潤率能否抵消投資大宗商品帶來的壞賬。無論如何，美元的強勢對銀行股來說都不簡單的是一個靈丹妙藥。

Why the Dollar Can't Help U.S. Banks

By Lawrence Pines | June 30, 2016 — 9:00 AM EDT

The banking industry in 2016 is still struggling to recover from the Great Recession of 2008. The biggest taxpayer-funded bailout in U.S. history produced new challenges for U.S. banks. The weak economic environment in 2008 led to aggressive action by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) to lower interest rates. The historically low level of rates compressed the profitability of lending. At the same time, new regulations raised capital requirements and curtailed proprietary trading, which further squeezed profits.

Some analysts suggest a rise in interest rates might cure banks' problems. First of all, higher rates allow banks to generate larger spreads on loans. The low interest rate environment from 2008 to 2016 has punished bank profits. The European Central Bank (ECB), which sets key interest rates for the eurozone, has kept rates on its deposit facility negative, which severely impacts the ability of banks to make profits. Shares of Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), Germany's largest bank by assets, are trading near all-time lows.

Secondly, higher rates usually follow better consumer spending and wage increases. The improved economic environment could provide further stimulus for bank profitability. However, higher interest rates may lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, especially if U.S. rates move higher than rates in other countries. The question, then, is if a higher dollar helps U.S. Banks.

Strong Dollar Helps Lending Profits

A flight to quality during the financial crisis propelled the Fed's U.S. dollar index (USDX) from 85 in July 2008 to 97 by March 2009. After that point in March 2009, the index began a slow descent that carried it to 80 by July 2011. After churning in the mid-80s for the next 3 and a half years, the index moved rapidly higher in 2015. An examination of net interest margins for U.S. banks over the same period shows that bank profitability suffered from the move lower in the dollar and gradually recovered as the dollar rose. Net interest margins measure the difference between banks' interest income and the interest they pay out to their lenders, and are therefore a key measure of bank profitability. Net interest margins declined from 3.83% in the first quarter of 2010 to 2.95% the first quarter of 2015. They then rose to 3.02% in the first quarter of 2016.

The correlation between the dollar and a key measure of profitability for banks is clear. Lower interest rates generally correspond with a weaker dollar. Although the Fed did not raise rates until December 2015, the move higher in the U.S. dollar index in 2015 anticipated tightening by the Fed. If the Fed raised rates and the dollar strengthened, the net interest margins may rise.

Strong Dollar Hurts Commodities

While the strong dollar may help net interest margins, it may not be beneficial to other bank businesses. Commodity prices also show a strong correlation with the dollar index. An examination of the U.S. dollar index and the price of oil shows that the two items have moved in an opposite direction over the last 10 years, though the extent of these moves has varied. Similar relationships exist between the dollar index and broader measures of commodities, such as the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Commodity Index. Market price global commodities in U.S. dollars and, therefore, commodities and the U.S. dollar generally move inversely.

Publicly available data from February 2016 shows that U.S. banks have significant exposure to the commodities sector. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) had 6% of its wholesale credit exposure to the oil and gas exploration industry and 2% to the metals and mining sector. The bank had $550 million in reserves against its oil and gas exposure and $68 million against its metals and mining exposure. Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) had 9% of its total exposure to oil and gas, 26% of which was to exploration and production. Citigroup had 32% of its exposure to non-investment-grade debt.

Key Takeaways

Strength in the U.S. dollar may create two contradictory results for the banking industry. On the one hand, dollar strength should produce continued weakness in commodity prices, which could significantly impact both the balance sheets and income statements of the largest banks. On the other hand, dollar strength should improve lending margins for banks. The question for investors is whether improvements in net interest margins can offset expected write-downs for bad loans from commodity investments. Regardless, strength in the dollar is not a simple panacea for bank stocks.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/063016/why-dollar-cant-help-us-banks.asp