鲍威爾：英國退歐加劇全球經濟下行風險

美聯儲理事鲍威爾週四表示：在英國退歐公投之前，全球經濟疲軟，金融市場動蕩，這些都給美國的經濟帶來了風險，而公投的結果更是雪上加霜。

鲍威爾是英國退歐後首個發表講話的美聯儲官員。

他認為現在判斷英國退歐公投的影響還為時過早，因為美聯儲可能在未來的幾個月內繼續維持利率不變。自上週公投以來，美國金融市場已經出現了“適當”收緊，美元持續走強，股票價格不斷下跌，信用利差仍在擴大。

市場參與者們都認為美聯儲不會在年內加息了。

鲍威爾在演講中沒有提及美聯儲加息的時機。去年十二月，美聯儲的利率從0.25%上漲至0.5%，然後便再無寸進。

美聯儲官員們想放慢加息的步伐，而不是等到通脹出現再突然加息。但是鲍威爾認為這不是當前需要考慮的問題。

他說：“人們認為應該在經濟形勢變得緊張以及通脹出現之前提高利率。但這不是我們現在需要面對的問題。”

他很擔心四月和五月的就業數據。

鲍威爾說：“雖然我不想從兩個月的數據中得出太多結論，但勞動力市場的复蘇至關重要，因為我們可以從中推測出當季的GDP增長情況。”

他補充道：“就業增長可能喪失動能令人倍感擔憂。”

他認為美國經濟只能勉強應付過去。

鲍威爾對美國經濟“基本預期”是：美國經濟繼續保持2%的增長速率，勞動力市場有所回暖，通脹逐漸上漲並將超過年度目標。

但是投資者們認為通脹會維持在較低的水平，鲍威爾也認為這是個問題。

鲍威爾說：“當前的通脹水平太低，這是個問題。我們會不斷努力，爭取將通脹率提升至2%。”

鲍威爾表示，如果美聯儲退縮了，利率也不會自動上漲。

“這不僅僅是我們的事情，是全球各方勢力壓低了利率。”他說。

鲍威爾不太擔心通貨緊縮的問題，他反而擔心低通脹、低增長、低利率的狀況會持續太久。

“經濟复蘇不是理所當然的。”他說。

“我們需要繼續努力。”

Brexit has shifted global risks ‘even further’ to the downside, Fed’s Powell says

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Global weakness and financial market volatility posed dangers to the U.S. economy even before the Brexit vote last week and the results of the referendum have simply shifted these risks “even further” to the downside, said Fed Governor Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

“The risks to the global outlook were somewhat elevated even prior to the referendum, and the vote has introduced new uncertainties,” Powell said in a speech followed by questions from the audience at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Powell’s remarks are the first from a Fed official in the wake of the decision last week by U.K. voters to leave the European Union.

The Fed governor said it was “far too early” to judge the effects of the Brexit vote on the U.S. economy, suggesting the U.S. central bank could hold interest rates steady for months. He said there has been a “modest” tightening in U.S. financial market conditions since the vote last week as the dollar has strengthened, equity prices have dropped and credit spreads have widened.

Markets don’t expect any more rate hikes this year.

In his remarks, Powell did not discuss the timing of future rate hikes. The U.S. central bank hiked rates once in December to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% but has so far been unable to move again.

Fed officials had wanted to move rates up gradually rather than waiting and hiking rapidly if inflation reemerged. But Powell said this didn’t seem the problem at the moment.

“People say interest rates have to go up before the economy gets so tight that it will overshoot and there will be inflation...that doesn’t seem to me to be the problem we face right now,” he said.

Powell said he was worried about the weak job growth in April and May.

“While I would not want to make too much out of two monthly observations, the strength of the labor market has been a key feature of its recovery, allowing us to look through quarterly fluctuations in GDP growth,” Powell said.

“So the possible loss of momentum in job growth is worrisome,” he added.

Still, Powell said he thought the U.S. economy was likely to muddle through.

Powell said his “baseline expectation” has been that the U.S. economy continues to grow at around 2% growth, with “healing” labor markets and inflation moving up “over time” to the Fed’s 2% annual target.

But investors believe inflation will stay low and Powell said this was a concern.

Inflation expectations are “low to the point where it is troubling. We’ve got to get inflation to 2% and I’m certainly committed to doing,” Powell said.

The Fed governor said interest rates would not automatically go way up if the Fed “stepped back.”

“It is not just us. These are global forces that are driving these rates down,” he said.

Powell said he wasn’t worried about deflation. Instead, he was more concerned about a prolonged period of low inflation, low growth and low interest rates. This makes fiscal policy much harder and makes Fed interest-rate policy ineffective, he said.

“The recovery is not to be taken for granted,” he said.

“We need to keep pushing.”

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-has-shifted-global-risks-even-further-to-the-downside-feds-powell-says-2016-06-28