黃金為何重要

 Sham Gad 2016年6月28日

雖然經濟衰退使許多人認為大蕭條即將來臨，但是到目前為止還未出現類似在2008年經濟大蕭條中實行的貨幣和金融刺激政策。對大多數投資者來說，從未認真考慮把黃金當成一個長期投資。

黃金難題

在2008年和2009年經濟衰退中，投資黃金成為許多投資者的主要想法。這一現象出現的主要原因是由於黃金價格的上漲。市場觀察人士往往會對任何價格正在上漲的股票或者資產進行炒作。受到人們購買實物黃金和通過包括ETF和黃金開採企業股票等多種方式投資黃金的影響，黃金價格漲幅巨大。

2008年的經濟大衰退對未來十年我們的經濟系統有深遠的影響。2016年英國公投決定退出歐盟也具有同樣的效果，黃金價格隨著未來英國經濟的不確定性增加而上漲。

投資黃金的問題

在投資黃金之前，首先要了解為什麼投資黃金存在基本問題。

黃金的主要問題是，與其他大宗商品不同，它不會被消耗殆盡。黃金一旦被開採出來之後，就能一直存在。一桶石油會被轉化成其他產品消耗殆盡，谷物同樣會被消耗掉。黃金則被制成首飾、用於藝術品、儲存在金庫中或者用於其他用途。不考慮最終目的，黃金的化學組成不會產生消耗。

因為這個原因，適用於石油、銅、谷物等其他大宗商品的供求參數不適用於黃金。

歷史克服這一問題

然而，與其他大宗不同，黃金從一開始就是人類社會追逐的目標。無數王朝由於黃金被建造和毀滅。隨著社會的發展，黃金成為一種普遍令人滿意的付款方式。簡而言之，歷史給與了黃金與任何其他商品都不同的含義。

而且這種含義從未真正消失。直到20世紀70年代，美國的貨幣制度還建立在金本位之上。金本位支持者認為由於債務的產生與黃金的實際供應相關，這一制度能有效的控制債務的擴張並嚴格貸款標準。

從基本面角度看來，黃金通常被認為是通貨膨脹良好的對沖。黃金的價值是作為一種儲蓄手段對沖貨幣貶值。

黃金投資

投資黃金最簡單的方式是通過股票市場，在股票市場你可以投資實物黃金或者黃金開採公司股票。投資實物黃金時不會獲得投資黃金開採公司時能使用的槓桿。隨著黃金價格的升高，開採公司利潤率的升高可以使投資收益大幅上漲。假設一個開採公司在黃金價格為1000美元時利潤是200美元。如果黃金價格上漲10%達到1100美元，則該公司的營業毛利將達到300美元，即上漲50%。

當然，投資黃金股票時還需要考慮其他問題，例如政治風險和黃金產量水平的維持。

投資實物黃金最常見的方式通過標準普爾存托憑證（SPDR）的黃金股ETF持有黃金。在投資ETF時需要註意淨資產價值，因為有時購買價格會大福度超過淨資產價值，尤其是當人們處於樂觀狀態時。

黃金開採公司包括Barrick Gold、Newmont Mining、Goldcorp和Anglogold Ashanti。想要消極投資黃金開採公司的投資者可以考慮黃金礦業股票ETF（Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF），其中包含所有主要的黃金開採公司。

其他投資選擇

雖然黃金是通脹中的一種投資方式，但是卻不是唯一的選項。大宗商品通常都會在通脹中受益，因為它們具有定價權。投資大宗商品型企業的關鍵是選擇那些低成本的生產商。更加保守的投資者將會考慮TIPS等通脹保值債券。你不會在通脹侵蝕你的資金的時候認為閑置資金是個好的選擇。

總結

在投資黃金時，你不能忽視人類的心理影響。黃金一直是伴隨著經濟蕭條和衰退的恐懼和不確定時期的投資首選。

Why Gold Matters

By Sham Gad | Updated June 28, 2016 — 11:50 AM EDT

 While economic recessions usually draw many comparisons to The Great Depression, so far there has been little (if any) historical precedent to the monetary and fiscal stimulative policies that our country embraced in the fall of 2008. For many investors, gold has never been seriously considered as a long-term investment. 

The Gold Conundrum
The topic of investing in gold came to the forefront of many investors' minds during the 2008-2009 recession. The most obvious reason for this was due to the rise in the price of gold. Market watchers love to sensationalize any stock or asset class that is experiencing a rise in price as the next possible investment to latch on to. Yet the rise in the price of gold happened largely due to people buying physical gold or betting on the metal through various investment options, such as ETFs or gold miner stocks.

The Great Recession of 2008 is set to have profound effects on our economic system for decades to come. This was also seen after the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016, when gold prices soared as Britain's economic future was deemed highly uncertain.

Problems with Gold as an Investment
Before jumping on the gold bandwagon, first examine reasons why investing in gold holds fundamental problems.

The main problem with gold is that, unlike other commodities, it does not get used up. Once gold is mined, it stays with you. A barrel of oil is turned into gas and other products that are expended and grains are consumed. Gold on the other hand is turned into jewelry, used in art, stored in vaults, or a variety of other uses. Regardless of its final destination, gold's chemical composition is such that it cannot be used up. 

Because of this, the supply demand argument that can be made for commodities like oil, copper, grains, and so forth doesn't hold up for gold. 

History Overcomes This Problem
However, unlike other commodities, gold has been the facination of human societies since the beginning of time. Empires and kingdoms were built and destroyed over gold. As societies developed, gold was universally accepted as a satisfactory form of payment. In short, history has given gold a power unlike any other commodity on the planet.

And that power has never really disappeared. The U.S. monetary system was based on a gold standard until the 1970s. Proponents of the gold standard argue that this monetary system effectively controls the expansion of credit and enforces discipline on lending standards since the amount of credit created is linked to a physical supply of gold. It's hard to argue with that line of thinking after nearly three decades of a credit explosion in the U.S. led to the financial meltdown in the fall of 2008.

From a fundamental perspective, gold is generally viewed as a favorable hedge against inflation. Gold functions as a good store of value against a declining currency. 

Investing in Gold
The easiest way to gain exposure to gold is through the stock market, in which you can invest in actual gold bullion or gold mining companies. Investing in gold bullion won't give the leverage that you get from investing in gold mining stocks. As the price of gold goes up, miners' higher profit margins can boost earnings exponentially. Suppose a mining company has a profit margin of $200 when the price of gold is $1000. If the price of gold goes up 10% to $1100 an ounce, the operating margin of the gold miners goes to $300, a 50% increase.

Of course, there are other issues to consider with gold mining stocks, namely political risk (since many operate in third world countries), and maintaining gold production levels. 

The most common way to invest in physical gold is through the SPDR's Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) ETF, which simply holds gold. When investing in ETFs, pay attention to net asset value (NAV) as sometimes the purchase can exceed NAV by a wide margin, especially when folks are optimistic.

Gold mining companies include Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM),Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), andAnglogold Ashanti (NYSE:AU). Passive investors who want great exposure to the gold miners may consider theMarket Vectors Gold Miners ETF(NYSE:GDX) which includes investments in all the major miners.

Alternative Investment Considerations
While gold is a good bet on inflation, it's certainly not the only one. Commodities in general benefit from inflation, since they have pricing power. The key consideration when investing in commodity-based businesses is to go for the low-cost producer or producers. More conservative investors would consider inflation-protected securities like TIPS. The one thing you don't want is to be sitting idle in cash thinking you're doing well when inflation is eroding the value of your dollar.

The Bottom Line

In investing, you can't ignore the effect of human psychology when it comes to gold. Gold has always been a go-to investment during times of fear and uncertainty, which tend to go hand in hand with economic recessions and depressions.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/why-gold-matters.asp