英國退歐是“長期緩慢增長”的結果

在退歐星期五那天，市場紛紛暴跌。我在上一季的致客戶信中列出了潛在市場干擾的詳單，而英國退歐正是其中一個。

在我看來，英國退歐是經濟長期緩慢增長的結果。全球經濟持續疲軟，財富流向少數人，很多人對此感到沮喪。人們都渴望著有人能夠解決他們的焦慮。

對於市場來說，退歐事件是夏季修正的導火索而不是一天就能了結的事件。對於那些惶恐的人們來說，現在可能會有現金投資的機會。在過去的幾年中，我一直建議投資者積累資金，隨著市場逐漸步入長期緩慢增長的階段，這些人便是明天的贏家。

贏家不會是引領市場的商業大鳄，而是追隨我的投資基本趨勢的人們，我建議大家關註以下公司及版塊：

從世俗破壞性變化中獲益的公司和版塊，如：老齡化人口、氣候變化以及千禧年家庭的形成等。

受政府和央行支援的公司和版塊，無論它們是否有價值。

在活躍的動量交易中展示價值定價的公司和版塊。

反過來說，沒有上述支援的公司和版塊可能會出現生產力低下、員工不足、高額全球債務、市場結構受損以及情緒民粹主義等問題。這些公司關註於熱點問題，但卻不能給出清晰的解決方案。

我一直在描述著一個“長期緩慢增長”的世界，現金充足的前瞻性投資者應該關註在這個世界中仍然表現良好的投資產品。以下是我看好的進一步修正的ETF產品：

SPDR Select Health Care ETF，關註人口老齡化問題及分紅。

Powershares QQQ，包含大量生物技術，在分散投資的ETF中將繼續保持其破壞性及支撐性。

Guggenheim Solar ETF處於增速最快的市場之中，不久後將從行業整合中獲益。

First Trust Natural Gas ETF持有頁岩油公司，並計劃在行業整合、油價和汽油價上漲後開始反彈。

WisdomTreee Europe Hedged Equity ETF將從歐元下跌及歐洲央行刺激性政策中獲益。該ETF分紅優厚並提供分散投資。

我知道，形勢惨淡時期的投資令人無比擔憂，但這時候做出的決策往往是正確的。對於那些滿倉投資的人們來說，挽回的方法是尋找斬倉的機會，因為高速增長的時代已經過一去不返，市場將繼續走低。

Brexit is a result of ‘slow growth forever’

KIRK SPANO

Last Friday morning, many markets fell sharply based upon the Brexit vote. The Brexit was one of the items in my long list of potential market disruptions that I had noted in my last quarterly letter to clients.

In my opinion, the Brexit is a symptom of the "slow growth forever" that I have talked about here and here, as well as, on my blog. People are frustrated that the global economy continues to be slow and that wealth flows to relatively few. This vote, even if it had gone the other way, underscores that people want answers to their anxieties.

For markets, this event is likely more of a catalyst for a summer corrective period than a one-day event. For those who don't panic, there will likely be some opportunities to invest some of the cash I have urged people to accumulate the past year as the world and markets adjust to "slow growth forever" and pick out tomorrow's winners.

The winners of tomorrow won't be the mega-caps that have led in the past couple years. Nor will the winners be broad indexes. The winning themes we are following at my investment letter Fundamental Trends are these:

·        Companies and sectors that benefit from secular and disruptive change, such as aging demographics, climate change and millennial household formation, will do well — there are many sub-themes.

·        Companies and sectors that receive government and central bank support will benefit whether they really deserve to or not.

·        Companies and sectors that exhibit value pricing in the face of hyperactivity by momentum traders will set up to be the next momentum plays.

Conversely, companies and sectors that do not have at least some of those supportive factors will likely stagnate or decline in an era with flat productivity, fewer workers to dependents, high global debt, damaged market structures and an emotional populism that focuses well on problems but offers little in clear-headed solutions.

What forward-looking investors with cash to invest ought to be doing is looking for opportunities to start scaling into the types of investments that will do well in the "slow growth forever" world I keep describing. Here are a few ETFs that I like on further correction:

SPDR Select Health Care ETF XLV, +0.63%  due to aging demographics and its dividends.

Powershares QQQ QQQ, +0.50%  which contains a heavy slug of technology and biotechnology that will continue to be disruptive and supportive of this top performing diversified ETF.

Guggenheim Solar ETF TAN, +0.19%  which is riding one of the fastest-growing markets in the world and will soon benefit from consolidation in the industry.

First Trust Natural Gas ETF FCG, +1.44%  which holds shale gas companies poised to rebound on industry consolidation, and, rising oil and gas prices. Of note is that the fund has replaced many of last year's financial unsound stinkers.

WisdomTreee Europe Hedged Equity ETF HEDJ, +0.02%  which will benefit from a falling Euro and ECB stimulus. It pays a good dividend and offers diversification.

I know it is scary to invest when things seem dark, but it usually the right thing to do. For those of you who are fully invested, rallies are opportunities to trim, as high growth rates are never coming back and the markets will eventually head further down than last week.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-is-a-result-of-slow-growth-forever-2016-07-01