英國退出歐盟將會對歐洲經濟造成怎樣的影響

John Burke 2016年7月8日

美國東部時間2016年6月24日上午2點英國退歐公投出現了結果，最終結果是51.9%的投票選民決定離開歐盟而48.1%的投票選民決定留在歐盟。一小時之後，歐洲股票市場開盤大跌。在五分鐘内，英國FTSE 100指數下跌8.39%，歐洲STOXX 50指數下跌9.73%，德國DAX指數下跌 9.14%%。到美國東部事件上午5：32，英鎊匯率下跌到1.33美元，為1985年以來的最低點。

盡管市場對這一消息出現了震驚反應，但是還是有許多英國會退出歐盟的警告以及這一事件對英國和歐盟可能造成的後果的預測。雖然英國不是歐洲貨幣聯盟的成員，但是該國還是歐洲無障礙貿易和統一市場的受益者。

經濟風險的警告

在一項對英國退出歐盟對全球經濟影響的評估中，國際貨幣基金組織按照國際貨幣基金協議條款的第四條進行了一次官方行動。在2016年5月13日發佈的評估結束聲明中，國際貨幣基金組織提出了下述關於英國退出歐盟可能出現結果的警告。

雖然英國不需要再支付占其GDP 0.33%的歐盟預算費用，但是增加的貿易壁壘將會使產出損失超過其GDP的1%。如果英國不與歐盟談判建立新的關系，該國將失去單一市場準入便利並受國際貿易組織條款的約束受到貿易壁壘的阻礙。根據英國與歐盟和世界其他國家新建立的經濟協議的不同，該國的損失可能在GDP的1.5%到9.5%之間浮動。英國經濟受到的打擊可能會產生連鎖反應，導致地區和全球市場受到影響。

投資銀行的觀點

在英國退歐剛剛出現明顯迹象時，摩根士利丹的Andrew Sheets在2016年6月23日提示客戶歐洲股票市場可能從他們購入水平下跌15%到20%。Andrew Sheets預計美國股票和債券將從其避險地位中受益。

瑞士信貸集團警告稱香港、新加坡和越南是與英國關系最密切的亞洲經濟體。大約有2%的新加坡GDP來自對英國的出口。由於歐盟經濟受到打擊，新加坡和越南將是亞洲受影響最為嚴重的國家，因為他們6%-7%的GDP來自對歐盟的出口。

2016年6月21日，索羅斯發佈了對英國退出歐盟可能引發英國經濟衰退的擔憂，因為可能的金融危機將會使英格蘭銀行的可用資源減少。他指出金融投機者將是英國退出歐盟的唯一受益者，因此選民將會變得更加貧窮。

僅僅在公投結果即將公佈之前，德意志銀行發佈了一份市場長期不確定的前景預測。雖然大多數新聞報道都認為英國需要兩年的時間準備正式離開歐盟，德意志銀行預測這一準備時間將為三年。德意志銀行的預測包括歐洲STOXX600指數下跌15%和德國十年期債券的收益率將為-0.10%到-0.15%。報告中提到的其他下行風險包括可能出現的歐洲銀行危機。

How Brexit Can Affect the European Economy (MS, DB)

By John Burke | July 8, 2016—3:00 PM EDT 

At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, June 24, 2016, the final voting results from Britain’s referendum on whether to leave the European Union (EU) indicated 51.9% in favor of leaving and 48.1% in favor of remaining. One hour later, the European stock markets opened to an air pocket. Five minutes into the session, Britain’sFTSE 100 index was down 8.39%, the Euro STOXX 50 index had plunged9.73%, and Germany’sDAX index sank 9.14%. By 5:32 a.m. EDT, the exchange rate for the British pound had fallen to $1.33, its lowest level since 1985.

Although the markets exhibited a shocked reaction to the news, there had been plenty of warnings about the risks of a vote in favor of a Brexit, as well as the potential consequences for both Britain and the EU in the event of such an outcome. Although Britain is not a member of the European currency union, known as the eurozone, the nation benefits from the trade barrier-free, EU single market.

Warnings of Economic Risks

In an effort to assess the global economic consequences of a potential exit from the EU by Britain, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted an official mission pursuant to Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement. In its May 13, 2016, consultation concluding statement of the mission, the IMF provided the following admonitions about the consequences of a Brexit.

Although Britain would avoid its obligatory, net EU budget contribution of 0.33% of its gross domestic product (GDP), increased trade barriers would bring output losses exceeding 1% of the nation’s GDP. Unless Britain negotiates a new relationship with the EU, the nation would lose its single-market access and become subject to trade barriers in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Depending on the terms of Britain’s new economic agreements with the EU and other nations of the world, the United Kingdom’s estimated losses could range between 1.5 and 9.5% of the nation’s GDP. The hit to Britain’s GDP could have contagion effects, causing spillovers to regional and global markets.

Views From Investment Banks

Once it became apparent that a vote in favor of the Brexit was likely,Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) advised clients that the European equity markets could experience declines of as much as 15 to 20% from their closing levels on June 23, 2016. Sheets anticipated that U.S. stocks and bonds would benefit from an enhancement of their safe haven status.

Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS) warned that Hong Kong, Vietnam and Singapore were the Asian economies with the most exposure to the United Kingdom. Nearly 2% of Singapore's GDP results from its exports to Britain. Should the spillover hit the EU, Singapore and Vietnam would be the hardest hit Asian nations because 6 to 7% of their GDP is derived from exports to the European Union.

On June 21, 2016, George Soros expressed his concern that the aftermath of a Brexit could push the U.K. into a recession because the Bank of England had dwindling resources available as a result of the financial crisis. He noted that financial speculators would be the only ones to gain from a Brexit, and the voters would become considerably poorer as a result.

Just before the Brexit votes were completely counted, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) provided an outlook of a sustained period market uncertainty. While most news reports explained that Britain would have two years to resolve its official departure from the EU, Deutsche Bank anticipated that it would take three years. The Deutsche Bank forecast included a 15% drop for the EuroSTOXX600 index and a yield of negative 0.10% to negative 0.15% for the 10-year German bund. Other downside risks mentioned in the report included a potential European banking crisis.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/070816/how-brexit-can-affect-european-economy-ms-db.asp