Cory Mitchell 2016年7月5日
縱觀歷史，黃金一直在人類社會扮演著非常重要的角色，在後金本位時期的21世紀初期，由於不穩定因素的出現，一些人認為我們應該重新採用金本位制度。在實行金本位制度的19世紀和20世紀存在著一些硬傷，而且許多人沒有意識到在當前的自由市場體系中，黃金也是一種貨幣。通常認為黃金與美元相對的，主要是因為它由美元定價，而且二者之間有一個粗略的反向關系。當我們把黃金價格簡單的看成一個匯率的時候，我們必須註意到這些因素：我們可以使用把美元兌換成日元的相同方式把紙幣兌換成黃金。
黃金是一種貨幣
在自由市場體系中黃金是一種貨幣，盡管它通常不被人們視為貨幣。黃金具有一個價格，而這個價格會相對於其他貨幣波動，例如美元、歐元和日元。黃金可以被購買和儲藏，盡管它通常不會用於日常的直接付款，但是其高流動性使其能相對很容易的兌換成任何貨幣。
因此，黃和其他貨幣一樣具有波動的趨勢。當其他貨幣或者資產類別表現良好時，其價格可能會下降。當人們對紙幣信心減弱、可能將會爆發戰争或者對華爾街類型交易工具缺乏信心時黃金會表現良好。例如，當英國選民投票決定離開歐盟時，英鎊跌到自1985年以來的最低點，而黃金價格在公投之後的兩週内上漲超過10%。
現在黃金可以以多種方式進行交易，包括購買實物黃金、期貨合約、黃金ETF、或者投資者可以通過購買差價合約僅僅參與其價格波動而不用持有黃金。
黃金和美元
一直以來，黃金和美元的關系都十分有趣。在長期中，美元貶值意味著金價上漲。在短期中，這一規律不一定適用，因為其聯系可能很微弱。
美元與黃金的關系源自於佈雷頓森林體系，在其中國際支付是使用美元結算的並且美國政府承諾以固定的黃金比例兌換美元。雖然佈雷頓森林體系在1971年被廢除，美國仍然是一個全球最具影響力的國家。因此當人們談論到黃金時，通常也會談論到美元。
談到黃金和美元的關系，就像對其他任何貨幣一樣，要牢記黃金和貨幣都是運動的而且不僅僅只有一種含義。以黃金為例，它不僅僅受到通貨膨脹、美元或者戰争的影響。黃金是一種全球性的大宗商品，因此黃金反應全球市場情緒，不僅僅是一個經濟體或者一群人的情緒。
金本位中存在的問題
當把黃金當作一種貨幣時，許多人支持重新採用金本位制度。但是在以前執行（19世紀到1971年）的金本位制度中也存在著許多問題。
其中一個主要問題是該體系最終依賴中央銀行“遵守規則”。這些規則要求中央銀行調整貼現率，使黃金適當的流入和流出，以便能使匯率與貿易夥伴相同。雖然許多國家都遵守這一規則，但是還是有一些例外，例如法國和比利時。任何體系都要求所有參與方的配合，金本位也不例外。
第二個問題是雖然金本位能維持長期的價格穩定，但是經濟體還是需要面臨短期的價格沖擊。1848年加州黃金的發現是一個典型的價格沖擊例子。黃金的發現增加了貨幣供應，提高了支出和價格水平，造成了短期不穩定。雖然這一現象能被適當的立法中和，但是需要註意的是金本位時期也出現過經濟不穩定，而且所有試圖維持金本位制度的努力都沒有奏效。
黃金作為貨幣的再次探讨
後金本位時代的自由市場體系基本上允許黃金成為一種貨幣。這意味通常被作為避險手段的黃金是一個不穩定性的指標。投資黃金使交易者和個人能在經濟不定時對財產進行一定的自我保護。正如上面提到的，任何體系都會發生經濟動蕩，金本位也一樣。人們有時候會因為匯率有利跨境在另一個國家購買商品，我們也應該以這個角度看待黃金。有時候持有黃金是有利的，其他時候黃金的整體趨勢可能會是消極的。盡管官方的金本位制度已經不複存在，黃金還是受到貨幣和全球情緒的影響。因此，黃金必須以和貨幣一樣的方式交易。
至於有過國家不遵守規則這個問題，這在任何體系中都會存在。但是至少在自由市場體系中，國家會因為不遵守協議在長期中受到處罰。
不管採用何種體系，其有效性取決於投資者對該體系的信任度。金本位制度的誘惑源自紙幣受到某些實物支撐的錯覺。雖然黃金既不能吃也不能用來建造房屋，但是其價值對大衆對全球市場的認知具有重大影響。自由市場允許那些想要使用黃金的人將它當成一種貨幣，而紙幣是由那些接受紙幣購買商品和服務的人支撐的。這種觀念受到了廣告的加強：廣告不僅僅對產品進行推銷，而且通過提供價格重申了使用紙幣購買產品和服務的理念。黃金不需要用貨幣表示價格，除非是在有利時期進行大宗商品或者貨幣的投資。
通過購買實物黃金，人們可以在全球經濟不穩定時期進行自我保護。任何貨幣都會出現趨勢和逆轉，黃金也不例外。黃金是針對紙幣潛在威脅的一種保護性投資。一旦威脅成為現實，黃金提供的優勢可能已經消失。因此，黃金具有前瞻性，而那些投資黃金的人也必須具有前瞻性。
總結
在自由市場體系中，黃金應當被視為和美元、歐元或者日元一樣的貨幣。黃金與美元有長期聯系，而且長遠看來，黃金通常與美元反方向運動。由於市場不穩定的出現，出現創建另一個金本位制度的讨論也非常正常，但是金本位也並非是一個完美的體系。我們可以把黃金當成一種貨幣並且作為對沖紙幣和經濟風險的手段進行交易，但是我們必須知道黃金具有前瞻性，如果等到災難出現且其價格已經開始反映不景氣的經濟現狀，黃金將不能提供任何優勢。
Gold: The Other Currency
By Cory Mitchell | Updated July 7, 2016 — 10:52 AM EDT
Throughout the ages, gold has captivated societies, and in a post-gold-standard world, many feel that with the instability that occurred in the first decade of the 21st century, some form of the gold standard should be brought back. There were inherent problems with the gold standards implemented in the 19th and 20th centuries, and many people are failing to realize that gold, under the current free market system, is a currency. Gold has often been thought of in relation to the U.S. dollar, mainly because it is usually priced in U.S. dollars, and there is a rough inverse correlation between the USD and gold prices. These factors must be considered when we see that the price of gold is simply an exchange rate: In the same way one could exchange U.S. dollars for Japanese yen, a paper currency can also be exchanged for gold.
Gold Is a Currency
Under a free market system, gold is a currency, although it is not often thought of as one. Gold has a price and that price will fluctuate relative to other forms of exchange, such as the U.S. dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen. Gold can be bought and stored, and while it is not often used as a direct payment method for everyday use, it is highly liquid and can be converted to cash in almost any currency with relative ease.
Gold, therefore, has tendencies like those of a currency. There are times when gold is likely to move higher and times when other currencies or asset classes are likely to outperform. Gold is likely to perform well when confidence in paper currencies is waning, when there is potential for war and/or when there is a lack of confidence in Wall Street-type trading instruments. For example, when the UK voted to leave the EU, the British pound sterling plummeted to the lowest level since 1985, while gold soared over 10% in the two weeks following the referendum.
Gold can now be traded in multiple ways, including buying physical gold, futures contracts, a gold ETFs, or investors can participate in just the price movements without owning the underlying asset by purchasing a contract for difference (CFD).
Gold and the U.S. Dollar
Gold and the USD have always had an interesting relationship. Over the long term, a declining dollar has meant rising gold prices. In the short term, this is not always true, and the relationship can be tenuous at best, as the following two-year weekly chart demonstrates. Notice the correlation indicator in Figure 1, which moves from a strong negative correlation to a strong positive correlation and back again.
The U.S. dollar's relationship to gold prices can be linked to the Bretton Woods System, where international settlements were made in U.S. dollars and the U.S. government promised to redeem dollars at a fixed gold rate. While the Bretton Woods system was dissolved in 1971, the U.S. remains a global power today; therefore, when gold is discussed, talk of the U.S. dollar usually ensues.
While gold and the U.S. dollar share a relationship, as any major currencies do, it is important to remember that gold and currencies are dynamic and have more than one simple input. Gold, for example, is impacted by far more than just inflation, the U.S. dollar or war. Gold is a global commodity and therefore, gold reflects global sentiment, not simply the sentiment of one economy or group of people.
Problems with the Former Gold Standards
When considering gold as a currency, many people support moving back to an adapted form of the gold standard. There were various problems with the gold standards that were implemented between the 1800s and 1971 .
One of the main problems was that the systems were ultimately reliant on central banks to "play by the rules." The rules required central banks to adjust the discount rate to allow for proper inflow and outflow of gold to bring the exchange rate back to par with trading partners. While many countries followed the rules, several did not - namely France and Belgium. Any system requires the cooperation of the parties involved, and the gold standard was no exception.
A second problem with the gold standard was that while it did maintain average price stability over the long run, there were still short-term price shocks that needed to be absorbed by economies. The California gold discovery of 1848 is a prime price shock example. The gold find increased the money supply, which raised expenditures and price levels, creating a short-run of instability. While this could be counteracted with the proper protocol, it should be noted that economic disruptions did occur during gold standard times, and no attempts to sustain a gold standard have lasted.
Gold as a Currency - Revisited
A post gold-standard free market system basically allows gold to act as a currency. This means gold, often referred to as a "safe haven," is an indicator of uncertainty. Gold allows traders and individuals to invest in a commodity that can often partially shelter them from economic disruptions. As mentioned above, disruptions will occur under any system, even a gold standard. Just as there are times when it pays to cross a border to buy goods in another country because of a favorable exchange rate, gold should also be viewed in this way. There are times when it is favorable to own gold and other times when the overall trend in gold will be benign or negative. Even though the official gold standards now gone, gold continues to be impacted by currencies and global sentiment; therefore, gold must be traded in the same way as a currency is traded.
As for the problem of countries not playing by the rules, this is likely a problem that will not go away under any system. But at least under a free market currency system, over the long run, countries are penalized for not adhering to protocols.
No matter what system is in use, its effectiveness relies on investors' belief in the system. The lure of the gold standard is that it provides the illusion that paper money is backed by something substantial. Yet gold can neither be eaten, nor can one build a house from it, making its value a matter of the mass perception of the global market place. Free markets allow gold to act as a currency for those who wish to use it, while other currencies are backed by those who accept that paper money will pay for goods and services. This belief is reinforced by advertising: An ad not only promotes a product, but by providing a price, it reaffirms the idea that paper money buys goods and services. Gold need not enter the equation, except for those who wish to invest in a commodity/currency during times when it is advantageous to do so.
By purchasing gold, people can shelter themselves from times of global economic uncertainty. Trends and reversals occur in any currency, and this holds true for gold as well. Gold is a proactive investment to hedge against potential threats to paper currency. Once the threat materializes, the advantage gold can offer may have already disappeared. Therefore, gold is forward-looking, and those who trade it must be forward-looking as well.
The Bottom Line
Under a free market system, gold should be viewed as a currency like the euro, yen or U.S. dollar. Gold has a long-standing relationship with the U.S. dollar and over the long term, gold will generally move inversely to it. With instability in the market, it is common to hear talk of creating another gold standard, but a gold standard isn't a flawless system. Viewing gold as a currency and trading it as such can mitigate risks to paper currency and the economy, but people must be aware that gold is forward-looking, and if one waits until disaster strikes, it may not provide an advantage if it has already moved to a price that reflects a slumping economy.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/10/gold-the-other-currency.asp