Neuberger Berman 2016年7月15日
從日本開始，貨幣政策可能需要進入下一個級別。
在對英國退歐公投兩週的消化中，我發現了一些市場反彈的關鍵因素。
在公投後的前三天中出現大量抛售，之後出現許多風險資產的反彈。但是新聞中把這一現象當成經濟反彈，我覺得還是有一點誘導成份。
一種看法是英國退出歐盟帶來的好處需要很長時間才能實現，而且在我看來重要的反彈還非常有限。另一個看法是議會和首相可能沒有真正執行退歐，投票人可能不知道什麼是至關重要的。考慮到參與投票的重大基數和投票勝利系數，我相信這樣的想法不能成立。不管好壞，英國推出歐盟是真實的。
在我看來對市場反彈更重要是看央行們的反應。英格蘭銀行宣佈鼓勵銀行在低存款準備金率時期放貸，歐洲央行主席Mario Draghi多次做出確定支持政策的講話，美聯儲加強了非美國條件對其政策的影響。
因此投資者感覺這將代理積極的影響，這非常好。
但是我認為最重要的是了解投票驅動因素本身對全球產生的深遠影響。特別是對貿易和移民的影響，這對西方國家民衆非常重要，因為他們長期受到經濟低增長和就業率低的嚴重影響。
在我看來，解雇歐洲和美國的英國雇員將是一個錯誤。事實上，找到一個好工作非常困難，尤其是那些不熟練工人和年輕人，而人們把這一現象的罪魁禍首歸咎於移民和貿易。事實是造成這一現象的許多原因是無形的，例如低效率的稅務法案、過度的管理和單一的人口結構。
日本的出口政策會出現革新嗎？
那麼更大的問題就出現了，怎樣實現經濟更好的增長呢？不幸的是，盡管央行能提供一些支持，目前他們還不能自己解決經濟增長的問題。事實上，美聯儲前主席伯南克在五年前就指出過貨幣政策的局限性，而且一些主要重要銀行不願意實行消極政策利率刺激經濟增長，他們能採用的政策就變得更少。
在英國退歐公投之後，我的同事 Joe Amato、Erik Knutzen與 Global Equity團隊主管Benjamin Sega參加了一個網絡研讨會，在其中他們讨論了怎樣做才能打破現在的經濟僵局。Erik在期間表示一個需要重點觀察的市場就是日本。
日元的大幅上漲是公投的許多主要影響之一。長久以來日元一直被視為避險貨幣，因此其最近上漲到2014年以來的高點可能會破壞安培經濟政策的發展。
由於出現這一不利因素，我們認為日本可能會成為第一個推出下一階段貨幣政策的國家，他們的政策可能是“直升機灑錢”，這是Milton Friedman創造出來的概念，用於描述央行不依賴銀行的間接刺激，而是直接將錢放到消費者手中。
當然，央行不能獨自完成這一政策的實施。它需要政府和立法機構的配合。這將使任務更加困難，但是它也能讓政府和經濟轉向結構化改革。這可能包括通過簡化稅法、減少或者簡化管理增加經濟效率，這對經濟健康增長至關重要。
如果日本成功，可以鼓勵其他地區展開行動。那些被誇大的風險反過來可能成為一個全球經濟複蘇漫長旅程中的轉折點。
Will Central Banks Look to New Tools?
By Neuberger Berman | Updated July 15, 2016 — 1:00 PM EDT
Starting in Japan, monetary policy may need to go to the next level.
With a couple weeks to digest the Brexit vote, I see some key takeaways tied to the market rebound.
There was a substantial selloff for the three days after the vote, and then (leaving aside more durable currency effects) a meaningful, if uneven, resurgence for many risk assets. But headlines regarding the bounce have been, I think, a bit misleading.
One notion is that the gains were driven by the fact that separation will take considerable time to implement—but this was known the day of the Brexit vote and seems to me of limited importance to the bounce-back. Another is that the parliament and prime minister may not have to follow through on Brexit at all, that voters “may not have known” what was at stake. Given the sizable turnout and wide margin of victory, I believe the idea of such a turnabout has been debunked. Brexit is real, for better or worse.
More significant for the rebound, in my view, was the response by central banks: The Bank of England announced that it would encourage bank lending through lower reserve requirements; ECB Chair Mario Draghi made reassuring comments about supportive policy; and Federal Reserve minutes reinforced the importance of non-U.S. conditions to its policies.
So investors felt better, which is great.
But I think it’s crucial to understand some key drivers of the vote itself that have far-reaching, global implications. In particular, I’m talking about the issues of trade and immigration, which have become lightning rods for voters, across Western economies, who are frustrated by subpar growth and the lack of opportunity and jobs it has engendered.
In my view, it would be a mistake to dismiss "Leave" voters and their counterparts on the Continent and in the U.S. as being narrow-minded or lacking global perspective. In fact, it is hard to find a good job, especially for the less skilled and the young, and people have latched onto what they perceive to be the most tangible culprits, namely immigration and trade. The reality is that many of the culprits are less tangible, such as inefficient tax codes, excessive regulation and simple demographics.
Could Japan Export Policy Innovation?
So the bigger picture issue becomes, how can you deliver better growth? Unfortunately, although central banks can provide some support, at the end of the day they can’t address the growth issue on their own. Indeed, then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was talking about the limits of monetary policy some five years ago, and with major central banks appropriately reluctant to aggressively pursue negative policy rates to spur growth, there are fewer policy options at their disposal.
After the Brexit vote, my CIO colleagues Joe Amato and Erik Knutzen, along with Benjamin Segal, head of the Global Equity team, participated in a webinar in which they discussed what could be done to break the economic logjam. One key market to watch, Erik said, was Japan.
The sharp rise in the Japanese yen is one of the more challenging effects of the referendum vote. The yen has long been viewed as safe-haven currency, and thus recently reached highs not seen since 2014, threatening to undermine progress made via Abenomics.
Given the bleak picture, we think it’s possible that Japan could be the first country to introduce the next stage of the Bernanke playbook, which is “helicopter money”—a term first coined by Milton Friedman to describe central bank policy that, instead of relying on indirect stimulus through banks, put dollars directly in the hands of consumers.
A central bank cannot implement such a policy on its own, of course. It needs the cooperation of executive branch heads and legislatures. This makes the task more challenging, but it also has the advantage of moving governments and economies toward structural reform. This could include increasing economic efficiency by simplifying tax codes, and reducing or streamlining regulation—which are key impediments to healthy growth.
Success in Japan could encourage action elsewhere. At the risk of overstatement, that in turn could prove a turning point in what has become a very long journey toward meaningful global recovery.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/neuberger-berman/articles/markets/071516/will-central-banks-look-new-tools.asp