美聯儲意指十二月加息

美聯儲14日演講的底線是什麼？

美聯儲專家表示，主席保留了年底加息的可能性，因為他要在年底對英國退歐給美國帶來的沖擊進行評估。

德意志銀行首席經濟學家Joe LaVorgna表示：“如果年底的數據如其所料，他們便會加息。他們打算加息，但是加兩次很難，加一次倒是可行。”

上週五發佈的六月就業數據表現強勢，CME的美聯儲觀察工具隨後發佈了報告，認為十二月加息的可能性高達40%。此前的報告顯示，加息的可能性僅有12%。年內還有四次美聯儲政策會議，分別在7月26日-27日，9月20日-21日，11月1日-2日，12月13日-14日。美聯儲主席耶倫計劃在九月和十二月召開新聞發佈會。

分析家們認為，七月的會議不可能決定加息。華爾街日報近來的投票結果顯示，只有四分之一的經濟學家認為加息會在九月進行。十一月加息也是沒有可能的，因為十一月的會議距離總統選舉僅餘6天。

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場的高級經濟學家Sal Guatieri表示：“我們的目標是非常平緩的，我們希望在今年年底加息。”

很多美聯儲專家都十分支援亞特蘭大聯儲主席洛克哈特的觀點。這位曾經的銀行家在刺耳聲彌漫的委員會中顯得尤為平和，他被視為鴿派的代表。

洛克哈特在愛達荷的演講中表示，英國的退歐公投給美國的經濟前景蒙上了一片陰雲，公投的沖擊會源源不斷地向美國襲來。

Guatieri說：“洛克哈特強調美聯儲仍會保有耐心。”

LaVorgna指出，洛克哈特對美聯儲加息的預期正在逐漸減少，計息的次數已從年內三至四次變為一次或兩次。

少數人對美聯儲的前景發表了不同意見。

Marvin Goodfriend曾為美聯儲官員，現任卡耐基梅隆大學的經濟學教授，他在彭博社發表了觀點，十分擔心通脹率的增長。他十分歡迎美聯儲在七月加息，但他知道這是不可能的。

另一邊，加拿大皇家資本市場高級美國經濟學家Jacob Oubina認為美聯儲會擱置加息計劃，直至2017年6月。

Jacob Oubina表示，英國退歐的風波以及美國、法國的總統選舉，都會對歐元區產生重大影響，湖面將不复平靜。

Flood of Fed speeches point to December interest-rate hike

  What was the bottom line of the 14 Federal Reserve speeches this week?

Fed experts said that the central bankers kept the flame alive for a possible interest-rate hike at the end of the year but want to wait until then to assess the impact of the Brexit referendum on the U.S. economy.

“They’re buying the option to raise rates this year if the data unfold the way they anticipate,” said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

“Their hope and intention is to raise rates. Two seems difficult, one is feasible,” LaVorgna said.

In the wake of the strong June jobs report from last Friday, investors are now pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME’s Fed Watch tool. This is up from only 12% before the report.

The Fed policy meeting has four meetings remaining this year: July 26-27, Sept. 20-21, Nov. 1-2 and Dec. 13-14. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold news conferences in September and December.

Analysts see no probability of a Fed rate hike at the meeting in 11 days. Only a quarter of economists see a rate hike in September, according to a recent poll by The Wall Street Journal. And a November move is seen as unlikely as the meeting is six days before the presidential election.

“Our call is still super-gradual, one move at the end of the year,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Several Fed experts said they gave the most weight to comments by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. The former banker is seen as a moderate in a committee with strident hawks and doves.

In a speech in Idaho, Lockhart, an avid fly fisherman, said the vote by Britain to leave the European Union has clouded the U.S. economic outlook and there might be persistent headwinds from the vote.

“Lockhart reinforced the Fed can remain quite patient,” Guatieri said.

LaVorgna noted that Lockhart has steadily reduced his forecast for Fed rate increases this year from four to three and now to “one or possibly two.”

There are minority opinions about the outlook for Fed policy.

Marvin Goodfriend, a former Fed officials and now a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, said in an interview with Bloomberg he is worried about a spike of inflation. He said he would welcome a Fed rate hike in July although he doesn’t expect one.

On the other side, Jacob Oubina, senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, sees the Fed on hold until June 2017.

 “That is the first shot of calm waters,” given the potential Brexit spillovers, the coming U.S. presidential election and elections in France that could impact the eurozone, Oubina said.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flood-of-fed-speeches-point-to-december-interest-rate-hike-2016-07-15