Prableen Bajpai 2016年7月18日
現在全球的收入分配極不平衡，當今世界前10大經濟體的GDP占全球GDP總量的66%，而前15大經濟體相加則超過75%。剩餘172個國家相加僅占25%。
下面列出了以名義GDP為標準的全球10大經濟體。該排名與使用購買平價測量的GDP標準不同。一般來說，發達國家的名義GDP與以購買力平價為基礎的GDP差距更小。而這一差距在發展中國家則更大，以購買力平價為基礎的GDP更大。這一列表來世國際貨幣基金組織數據，該數據每年更新兩次。
1.美國
按照名義GDP計算，美國是世界上最大的經濟體。17.95萬億的美國GDP經濟占世界生產總值的24.5%。美國是一個經濟超級大國，具有高度發達的技術和基礎設施並擁有豐富的自然資源。然而，以購買力平價為基礎的美國GDP以微小弱勢喪失了世界第一經濟體的地位。按那種算法，中國19.4萬億的GDP超過美國的17.95萬億。然而，美國55805美元的人均國内生產總值遠遠超過中國的14107美元。
2.中國
中國在20世紀70年代從中央計劃的封閉經濟轉變為一個制造業和出口中心。中國的經濟主要是由服務業和制造業共同推動的（各占約45%），農業闆塊則貢獻了10%。按照基於購買力平價的GDP計算，中國經濟已經超過了美國。然而，這一數據與名義GDP還有很大差距。中國目前的名義GDP為10.98萬億美元，盡管其經濟增長速度已經下降，但是近年來一直以7%的速度增長。
3.日本
以名義GDP計算，日本經濟排名第三，但是如果以基於購買力平價的GDP計算則跌到第四位。該國經濟自2008年起進入苦難時期，當時首次出現了經濟大衰退的迹象。盡管政府的刺激手段使經濟小幅複蘇，2011年的大地震又給這個脆弱的經濟帶來了沉重的打擊。目前其經濟增長速度在0.5%到2%之間徘徊，但是據估計未來六年都將低於1%。日本的名義GDP為4.12萬億美元，以購買力平價為基礎的GDP為4.83億美元，人均國内生產總值為38054美元。
4.德國
德國是歐洲最大和最強的經濟體。它的名義GDP在全球排名第四。德國的經濟以出口機械、汽車、家電用品和化工用品聞名。德國具有技術熟練的勞動力，但是它正和歐洲其他國家一樣面臨著人口結構方面的問題。其名義GDP規模為3.36萬億美元，以購買力平價為基礎的GDP為3.84萬億美元，國内人均生產總值為4.6893億美元，近年來經濟增長速度在1%到2%之間，並且據預測這種速度將持續下去。
5.英國
英國2.85萬億的GDP排在全球第五位。英國經濟主要由服務業驅動，該闆塊占其全部GDP的75%以上。農業闆塊僅為1%，制造業是其GDP貢獻第二大的產業。盡管農業不是GDP的主要貢獻因素，其60%的食品是國内產出的，雖然只有不到2%的勞動力從事這一行業。在2016年的公投中選民決定退出歐盟之後，英國經濟的不確定性增加，英國和法國的排名可能會調換。英國在正式宣佈退出歐盟之前的兩年將繼續執行歐盟條例和貿易協議，之後將運行新的貿易協議。經濟學家估計英國退歐將對其產生2.2%到9.5%的GDP損失，取決於替代當前單一市場結構的貿易協議。
6.法國
接受遊客最多的國家法國，以2.42億美元的GDP排在第六位。其以購買力平價為基礎的GDP約為2.65萬億。法國的貧窮比例非常低而且生活水平很高，這反映在其41180美元的人均國内生產總值上。該國是世界上的進出口大國。法國經濟增長在過去幾年出現放緩，政府承受著重新推動經濟的巨大壓力，2015年該國的失業率高達10.35%。國際貨幣基金組織預測法國經濟會在接下來的六年恢複增長，失業率也將下降。
7.印度
在以購買力平價為基礎的排名中印度排在第三位，而其名義GDP以2.09萬億排在第七位。過大的人口總量使其國内人均生產總值僅為6.162美元。與西方相比，印度的GDP仍然對農業的依賴非常大（17%）。然而，服務業近年來增長迅速，現在已經占GDP的57%，而工業占26%。印度的經濟依賴出口，儲蓄率非常高，人口優勢巨大，中產階級正在增加。印度已經超過中國成為世界上增長最快的經濟體。
8.意大利
意大利1.16萬億的名義GDP排在全球第八位。意大利是歐元區的重要經濟體，但是它受到了該地區債務危機的嚴重影響。該國經濟因巨額的政府債務受創（約占GDP的135.8%），並且其銀行系統瀕臨崩潰並急需救援。該國的失業率也非常高，但是在2015年出現了2011年後的首次經濟增長。該國政府正在採取各種手段刺激近年來不斷萎縮的經濟。以購買力平價測定的GDP為2.17萬億美元，國内人均生產總值為35708美元。
9.巴西
巴西名義GDP為1.77萬億，是世界上第九大經濟體。巴西經濟具有發達的服務業、制造業和農業，對GDP的貢獻分別為68%、26%和6%。巴西是金磚四國之一，並且曾經被預測將成為世界增長最快的經濟體之一。然而2015年的衰退使巴西從世界排名的第七跌到了第九，2015年其經濟增長為-3.8%。國際貨幣基金組織預測在2018年之前不會出現正增長，並且該國的失業率將從3%增長到10.4%。以購買力平價測定的巴西GDP為3.19萬億，其國人人均生產總值為15614美元。
10.加拿大
加拿大以1.55萬億的名義GDP超過俄羅斯排在了第十位。加拿大經濟以服務業為導向，並且二戰後制造業和石油闆塊增長迅速。然而，該國很容易受到大宗商品價格的影響，2015年油價的下跌使其經濟增長速度從前一年的2.5%下降到1.2%。以購買力平價測量的該國GDP為1.6萬億，人均國内生產總值為45553美元。
總結
一些其他國家的經濟也超過了萬億美元的大關，他們也有潛力進入排名的前十位，這些國家是韓國（1.38萬億）、俄羅斯（1.32萬億）、澳大利亞（1.22萬億）、西班牙（1.2萬億）和墨西哥（1.14萬億）。前十經濟體的後四名經過重新排列，並且加拿大將俄羅斯從第九位擠到第11位。
The World's Top 10 Economies
By Prableen Bajpai, CFA (ICFAI) | Updated July 18, 2016
The inequitable distribution of income is present at the global level where the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of the top 10 economies adds up to over 66% of the world’s economy, and the top 15 economies add up to over 75%. The remaining 172 countries constitute only 25% of the world’s economy.
Here’s the list of the top 10 economies based on the criteria of GDP, current prices (U.S. dollars) which is simply known as nominal GDP. The rankings differ if the same list is prepared using the GDP based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP). As a general rule, developed countries have a smaller gap between their nominal GDP (i.e., current prices) and GDP based on PPP. The difference is greater in developing countries, which tend to have a higher GDP when valued on purchasing-power-parity basis. This list is based on IMF data, which is updated twice annually.
1. United States
The U.S. economy is the largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP (measured at current prices in U.S. dollars). The $17.95 trillion U.S. economy is approximately 24.5% of the gross world product. The United States is an economic superpower that is highly advanced in terms of technology and infrastructure and has abundant natural resources. However, the U.S. economy loses its spot as the number one economy by a slight margin to China when measured in terms of GDP based on PPP. In these terms, China’s GDP is $19.4 trillion and the U.S. GDP is $17.95 trillion. However, the U.S. is way ahead of China in terms of GDP per capita(PPP) - approximately $55,805 in the U.S. versus $14,107 in China.
2. China
China has transformed itself from a centrally planned closed economy in the 1970's to a manufacturing and exporting hub over the years. The Chinese economy is propelled by an equal contribution from manufacturing and services (45% each, approximately) with a 10% contribution by the agricultural sector. The Chinese economy overtook the U.S. economy in terms of GDP based on PPP. However, the difference between the economies in terms of nominal GDP remains large. China is currently a $10.98 trillion economy and has been growing at around 7% in the recent years, although that growth is starting to slow down.
3. Japan
Japan’s economy ranks third in terms of nominal GDP, while it slips to fourth spot when comparing the GDP by purchasing-power-parity. The economy has been facing hard times since 2008, when it was first showed recessionary symptoms. Though the government’s stimulus packages have helped the economy recover a bit, the massive earthquake in 2011 gave the fragile economy another jolt. Economic growth has hovered between 0.5–2% in recent times, but is forecasted to stay below 1% during the next six years. The nominal GDP of Japan is $4.12 trillion, its GDP (PPP) is $4.83 trillion, and its GDP (PPP) per capita is $38,054.
4. Germany
Germany is Europe’s largest and strongest economy. On the world scale, it ranks as the fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. Germany’s economy is known for its exports of machinery, vehicles, household equipment, and chemicals. Germany has a skilled labor force, but the economy faces demographic challenges like most European nations. The size of its nominal GDP is $3.36 trillion, while its GDP in terms of purchasing-power-parity is $3.84 trillion. Germany’s GDP (PPP) per capita is $46,893, and the economy has moved at a moderate pace of 1-2% in recent years and is forecasted to stay that way.
5. United Kingdom
The United Kingdom, with a $2.85 trillion GDP, is the world’s fifth largest. The economy of the UK is primarily driven by services, as the sector contributes more than 75% of the GDP. With agriculture contributing a minimal 1%, manufacturing is the second most important contributor to GDP. Although agriculture is not a major contributor to GDP, 60% of its food needs is produced domestically, even though less than 2% of its labor force is employed in the sector. After the referendum in June 2016 when voters decided to leave the European Union, economic prospects for the UK are highly uncertain, and the UK and France may swap places. The country will operate under EU regulations and trade agreements for two years after the formal announcement of an exit to the European Council, in which time officials will work on a new trade agreement. Economists have estimated that a Brexit could result in a loss of anywhere from 2.2-9.5% of GDP, depending on the trade agreements replacing the current single market structure.
6. France
France, the most visited country in the world, is the sixth largest economy with a nominal GDP of $2.42 trillion. Its GDP in terms of PPP is around $2.65 trillion. France has a low poverty rate and high standard of living, which is reflected in its GDP (PPP) per capita of $41,180. The country is among the top exporters and importers in the world. France has experienced a slowdown over the past few years and the government is under immense pressure to rekindle the economy, as well as combat high unemployment which reached 10.35% in 2015. According to IMF forecasts the country's GDP growth rate is expected to rise over the next six years, and unemployment is expected to go down.
7. India
India ranks third in GDP in terms of purchasing-power-parity ($7.97 trillion), while its nominal GDP ($2.09 trillion) puts it in a seventh place. The country’s high population drags its GDP (PPP) per capita down to $6,162. India’s GDP is still dependent on agriculture (17%), compared to western countries. However, the services sector has picked up in recent years and now accounts for 57% of the GDP, while industry contributes 26%. The economy’s strength lies in a limited dependence on exports, high saving rates, favorable demographics, and a rising middle class. India recently overtook China as the fastest growing large economy.
8. Italy
Italy’s $1.16 trillion economy is the world’s eighth largest in terms of nominal GDP. Italy is among the prominent economies of the eurozone, but it has been impacted by the debt crisis in the region. The economy suffers from a huge public debt estimated to be about 135.8% of GDP, and its banking system is close to a collapse and in need of a bail-out/bail-in. The economy is also facing high unemployment, but saw a positive economic growth in 2015 for the first time since 2011. The government is working on various measures to boost the economy that has contracted in recent years. The GDP measured in purchasing-power-parity for the economy is estimated at $2.17 trillion, while its per capita GDP (PPP) is $35,708.
9. Brazil
Brazil with its $1.77 trillion economy, it is the ninth largest economy by nominal GDP. The Brazilian economy has developed services, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors with each sector contributing around 68%, 26%, and 6% respectively. Brazil is one of the BRIC countries, and was projected to continue to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the recession in 2015 caused Brazil to go from seventh to ninth place in the world economies ranking, with a negative growth rate of 3.8%. The IMF does not expect positive growth until 2018, and the unemployment rate is expected to grow over 3% – to 10.4% – over the same time period. The Brazilian GDP measured in purchasing-power-parity is $3.19 trillion, while its GDP per capita (PPP) is $15,614.
10. Canada
Canada pushed Russia off the list with a nominal GDP of $1.55 trillion. Canada has a highly service oriented economy, and has had solid growth in manufacturing as well as in the oil and petroleum sector since the Second World War. However, the country is very exposed to commodity prices, and the drop in oil prices kept the economy from growing more than 1.2% in 2015 (down from 2.5% the previous year). The GDP measured in purchasing-power parity is $1.6 trillion, and the GDP per capita (PPP) is $45,553.
The Bottom Line
Some other economies that are a part of the “trillion-dollar” club and have the potential to make it to the top 10 going ahead are South Korea ($1.38 trillion), Russia ($1.32 trillion), Australia ($1.22 trillion), Spain ($1.2 trillion), and Mexico ($1.14 trillion). The bottom four countries have been rearranged and Canada pushed out Russia which went from ninth to twelfth place (read more about Russia's economy here.)
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies.asp