日本經濟刺激政策落空 日元匯率暴漲

亞洲交易時間星期二，日元兌其他貨幣的匯率進一步上漲，兌美元的匯率達到了七月中旬以來的最高點，因為投資者對東京經濟政策的預期可能會落空。

美元/日元貨幣對在亞洲交易時間内呈下行趨勢，跌破了104.32日元。這比紐約週一晚間的105.81日元還要低。

歐元/日元自116.50日元跌至114.78日元，而英鎊日元則由139.03日元升至136.87日元。澳元和新西蘭元兌日元的匯率皆有上升。

週二早間的日經每日財經報告指出，日本將在未來的幾年中直接投入6萬億日元（合570億美元），是最初計劃的兩倍。包括貸款業務在内的總額可能會超過20萬億日元。

該報道推動美元/日元上漲至106.15日元，但隨後美元迅速回吐漲幅。駐東京的交易員和交易商加入了悲觀派陣營，認為日本中央和地方政府的支出規模實際上將低於投資者預期。

三菱日聯摩根士丹利首席外匯策略師植野大作指出：“仔細閱讀這篇報道就會發現，這是日本政府幾年的開支計劃，而不是一年；一些投資者認為，雖然從表面上看日本政府的刺激力度很大，但是每年的額外開支部分並不太大。”

美元上週一度升至107.49日元高點，原因是投資者對日本政府將公佈積極刺激計劃的預期不斷升溫，特別是在日本首相安倍晉三本月早些時候與前美聯儲主席伯南克會晤後。前美聯儲主席伯南克是貨幣化的倡導者。

植野大作稱：“由於對日本央行寬松政策的不切實際的幻想，日元兌美元曾一路升至107日元，目前正在從該水平回調。”

植野大作指出，美國聯邦公開市場委員會將在本週晚些時候同日本央行展開會議，投資者們不願在會議前大舉建倉，美元或圍繞105日元呈區間波動。

而其他的貨幣對，如歐元/美元的成交價則由1.0997美元跌至1.0844美元。

華爾街美元指數則為84.70，下跌了0.38%。

Yen surges against dollar, other rivals as Japan stimulus plan falls short

The yen strengthened against its rival currencies during Asian trade on Tuesday, hitting its highest level against the dollar since mid-July, as expectations receded for policy steps Tokyo will likely put together.

The greenback USDJPY, -1.28%  gained downside momentum during Asian, hitting ¥104.32. The level is much lower than ¥105.81 late Monday in New York.

The euro EURJPY, -1.14%  dropped to ¥114.78 from ¥116.50, while the poundEURJPY, -1.14%  tumbled to ¥136.87 from ¥139.03. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar were also higher against the Japanese currency.

The Nikkei financial daily reported in its Tuesday morning edition that Japan is looking to inject 6 trillion yen ($57 billion) in direct fiscal outlays into the economy over the next few years, double the amount initially planned. The overall package, including loans to businesses, could exceed 20 trillion yen. 

The media report helped push up the dollar against the yen to ¥106.15. But the dollar quickly erased the gains after Tokyo-based traders and dealers join the chorus of growing pessimism that the so-called “pure water” portion of the stimulus, or central and local government spending, will actually fall short of investors expectations.

“If you read the story carefully, it’s about multiyear spending, not in a single year,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, adding that several investors are of the view that though apparent size of the government stimulus looks big, the portion of extra spending on a single year basis will not be so huge.

The dollar had climbed as high as ¥107.49 last week, as investors’ expectations had mounted for Tokyo to unveil an aggressive stimulus package, especially after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s meeting earlier month with former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, an advocate of monetization.

“The dollar had jumped straight to ¥107 on unrealistic imagination talks about the BOJ easing. What we are seeing is a fallback from there,” said Ueno.

With investors avoiding taking strong positions ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank of Japan policy meetings later this week, the dollar will likely move in a range centered around ¥105, Ueno said.

In other currency pair trade, the euro EURUSD, +0.1455%  changing hands at $1.0844 from $1.0997.

The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.42% a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.38% at 87.70.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-surges-against-dollar-other-rivals-as-japan-stimulus-plan-falls-short-2016-07-26