為什麼普通家庭債務增加會阻礙經濟增長

Jea Yu  2016年7月26日

自2008年的房地產和金融市場崩潰以來全球債務增長了60萬億美元。其中關鍵組成部分，普通家庭債務的上漲將會極大阻礙經濟增長，原因如下。

債務組成

普通家庭債務在房地產泡沫和金融危機的之後的2008年到2011年之間有所下降。然而，從2012年又開始重新上漲。債務並沒有得到償還，而是轉移到了美國政府名下。這是源於美聯儲17億美元的聯邦不良資產補救計劃，這一計劃是伯南克用來補救“大到不能倒閉”金融公司和銀行的最後手段。這意味著政府購買了風險抵押貸款證券（MBS）。高質量的機構MBS得到了範妮梅、吉利美和房地美的擔保。雖然計劃通過量化寬鬆拯救了市場並使其達到新高，但是沒有迹象表面這些債務得到了償還。工資和企業收入開始停滯不前。臨時工人和非熟練勞動力失業增加使失業率上漲到5%。消費者債務持續上漲。

債務推動型消費

當債務的發佈是用於刺激經濟增長和投資，那麼它在投資升值且債務將被償還的假設下對經濟是有利的。債務推動經濟增長是有積極意義的。然而，上述債務組成已經明確表明債務的發行是用來抵消舊債務和維持經濟現狀，而不是用來促進發展。問題就出現在這里。在理想情況下，債務增長應該符合生產力的增長。當債務增長超過GDP的90%，將會變成一個麻煩的信號。我們需要減少債務或者加快經濟增長了。截止到2016年7月，二者都沒有實現。

大銀行

銀行正在使用他們大部分的資金進行回購和繼續購買更多的債務，而不是進行對經濟有直接影響的通過貸款投資傳遞資本。消費者和企業的貸款率一直停滯不前，例如，原因之一是更大的貸款限制。銀行堅持認為貸款發放的謹慎能避免另一個金融泡沫，但是這也正在限制中小企業的發展，這些企業通常是經濟增長最需要的動量。低利率使銀行收入下降，他們則通過更高的費用提高收入，這又給消費者造成了負擔。

最低工資和醫療保險

抵消工資增長，加利福尼亞和許多州已經把最低工資上調到15美元每小時，現階段已經實行。此舉的原因是他們認為工資增長能促進消費者支出，導致經濟增長。企業則認為最低工資的大幅增長將在實際中阻礙經濟增長和生產率。企業擁有者必須減少雇員以適應工資的上漲。這可能導致失業率上升。

也被稱為奧巴馬醫改的《平價醫療法案》在2010年3月23日頒佈。這一法案導致了更多的兼職工人將工作時間減少到40小時以下、全職工人辞職以避免更多的醫療保險支出。這一法案將繳納健康保險的責任和費用轉移給了員工。對通過雇主繳納醫療保險的員工來說，奧巴馬醫改沒有為其家屬提供支付能力的解決措施。這可能意味著如果保費過多，家屬將無力支付。

醫療債務

由於奧巴馬醫改的實行，健康保險的保費持續以兩位數的速率增長。雖然有國家健康保險市場程序可用，但是保費數額過於巨大。因為沒有保險的美國人面臨著稅收處罰，他們通常只能使用高額保險計劃。然而，自付金額可能會超出兼職工作者的支付能力，這將導致醫療債務的增長。醫療債務是美國銀行破產的最大原因。事實上，醫療債務的年增長比銀行和信用卡債務的增長總和快三倍。

Why Rising Average Household Debt Will Hurt the Economy

By Jea Yu | July 26, 2016 — 3:00 PM EDT

Global gross debt has increased by $60 trillion since the real estate and financial market meltdown in 2008. A key component of that, rising average household debt, will eventually hurt economic growth for the following reasons.

Debt Composition

Average household debt declined after the real estate bubble and financial crisis from 2008 to 2011. However, the figure started to climb again in 2012. Rather than paying off the debt, it was literally transferred to the U.S. government. This all originated from the $1.7 billion Federal TARP program that Ben Bernanke implemented as a last resort to bail out the "too big to fail" financial firms and banks. This meant the government purchased risky private-labeled mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The high-quality agency MBS were already guaranteed by the U.S. government through Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. While the plan managed to save the markets and spark a rally to new all-time highs through multiple series of QE, there are no signs that this debt is being serviced or paid down. Wage and earnings growth have been stagnant at best. The drop in the unemployment rate to 5% has been sparked by growth in part-time workers and low-skilled labor. Consumer debt continues to climb.

Debt-Fueled Consumption

When debt is used to stimulate growth and investment, it can be a boon to the economy under the assumption that the debt will be repaid from the investment appreciation. Debt-fueled growth is positive. However, the aforementioned debt composition clearly illustrates that debt is being used to offset old debt and maintain, rather than grow. This is where the problem lies. Ideally, growth in debt should be proportionate to productivity growth. When debt grows above 90% of the gross domestic product (GDP), it is almost always a sign of impending trouble. Either debt needs to be reduced or growth needs to rise. As of July 2016, neither was being achieved.

Big Banks

Banks are using much of their money to implement buybacks and continue to repurchase more debt rather than spread capital through loan investments that directly impact the economy. The growth rate of consumer and business loans has continued to be stagnant, for example, due to tighter credit restrictions. Banks insist that this is prudent on their part to avoid another financial bubble, but they are limiting the growth of small businesses, which is typically the most-needed growth engine. Low-interest rates have kept that portion of bank earnings depressed while they pursue growth through higher fees that continue to strain the consumer.

Minimum Wage and Health Insurance

To offset the curtailing wage growth, California and many states have raised the minimum wage up to $15 per hour, to be implemented in phases. The logic behind this move claims that higher wages equate to more consumer spending, leading to economic growth. Businesses have argued that a steep rise in minimum wage will actually hurt growth and productivity. Business owners will have to cut back on hiring and may have to terminate existing positions to accommodate the higher wages. This could result in unemployment rate spikes.

The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, was signed into law on March 23, 2010. The fallout has also resulted in more part-time workers as businesses have reduced hours to fall under the 40-hour, full-time status cutoff to avoid additional health insurance costs. This shifts the responsibility and expense of keeping health insurance to the employee. For employees who have health insurance through their employer, Obamacare offers no affordability measures for dependents of the employee. This can mean dependents are left on their own if the excessive premiums are too much to bear.

Medical Debt

Health insurance premiums continue to rise at double-digit rates due to Obamacare. While state health insurance marketplace programs are available, the premiums are daunting. Since uninsured Americans face tax penalties, they tend to be limited to high-deductible coverage plans. However, the deductibles alone may be too prohibitive for part-time workers to cover, which contributes to growing medical debt. Medical debt is the top reason for the majority of bankruptcies in the United States. In fact, medical debt is growing three times faster than bank and credit card debt combined on an annual basis.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/072616/why-rising-average-household-debt-will-hurt-economy.asp