Chase Carmichael 2016年7月29日
2016年6月24日，大量抛售使標準普爾500指數合約進入了一個下跌交易限制。在英國退歐公投期間，標準普爾500指數的電子迷你期貨合約下跌到1999點，在交易暫停之前下跌5.07%。投資者擔心英國離開歐盟的決定威脅了英國國内和國際的經濟穩定，正如英國的主權債務評級從AA+下降到AA。然而，這次美國股票價格的下跌僅僅相當於2015年8月中國人民幣貶值引起的股票下跌的12%。
人民幣貶值
法國興業銀行的Albert Edwards認為人民幣正在進行秘密貶值對全球經濟的危害遠遠大於英國退出歐盟。在2015年8月起，中國的貿易加權貨幣籃子已經下降10%，即使在人民幣對美元匯率穩定之後還在下跌。中國人民銀行對人民幣的貶值散發出極度不祥的信號，因為這說明中國這個全球第二大經濟體的疲軟。為了保持GDP的增長，中國人民銀行採取了出口通貨緊縮政策，以防止該國最大的經濟闆塊出口業的萎縮。這不僅僅對大宗商品價格產生進一步壓力，更重要的是，中國的行為可能會挑起一場貨幣戰争。在這種情況下，出口依賴型國家會争相進行貨幣貶值，以全球經濟的增長為代價避免本國的通貨緊縮。
巨大的債務壓力
除了正在發酵中的貨幣危機，中國人民銀行的寬松貨幣政策使得信貸情況日益不穩定。因此，中國的銀行資產在七年間上漲了210%，在2016年第一季度超過了31萬億美元。在這31萬億美元之中，淨債務占25萬億美元，其中包括國内和國際借貸。事實上，2015年末中國的總私人和公共債務額為GDP的350%，遠遠高於專家認為的250%到300%這個經濟增長下降的水平。
貸款效率低下
中國在2009年達到效率的最低點，要求四個單位的貸款產生一個單位的GDP。貸款效率低下的一個重要原因是新貸款被用來償還原來的貸款。2014年，中國政府同意地方政府發行債券。從那之後，地方政府債券收入的97.5%都被用來償還未償還債務。此外，2015年發行公司債券的44%用於償還現有債務，當你考慮到中國的最高企業負債比率為GDP的160%時，你會發現這是一個非常高金額。國際貨幣基金組織預測，中國因企業貸款違約造成損失將超過該國GDP的7%。截止到2016年6月，中國的不良貸款率達到了1.7%，世界知名的咨詢管理公司麥肯錫的信用分析師預測如果中國繼續以當前的形式放貸，那麼到2019年這一比例將達到15%。
新貸款的高速發放
到目前為止，中國僅僅加大了信貸創造。2016年第一季度是中國經歷了有史以來新增貸款最快的三個月，新增貸款6.2萬億元，時新增貸款的速度比2015年快50%多。麥肯錫公司認為，如果中國繼續當前的借貸趨勢，每年處理的不良貸款數量將從1萬億增加到3萬億。
China, Not Brexit, Is the Biggest Problem for the World
By Chase Carmichael | July 29, 2016 — 11:00 AM EDT
On June 24, 2016, massive selling in stock futures sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) contracts into a limit-down trading curb. Amid the Brexit vote, E-mini futures in the S&P 500 Index dove to 1,999, dropping 5.07% before trading was halted. Investors worry that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) threatened domestic and international economic stability, as evidenced by the downgrade of U.K. sovereign debt from AA+ to AA rating. However, the recent drop in U.S. stock prices pales in comparison to the 12% plunge following the contagion caused by China’s currency devaluation in August 2015.
Renminbi Devaluation
Albert Edwards of the Societe Generale Group believes that the ongoing stealth renminbi (RMB) devaluation presents a greater danger for the worldwide economy than Britain’s exit of the EU. Since August 2015, China’s trade-weighted currency basket has tumbled 10%, continuing to decline even as the RMB/dollar exchange rate has stabilized. The devaluation of the RMB by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is quite foreboding as it signals considerable weakness in the world’s second largest economy. Attempting to preserve gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the PBOC has resorted to exporting deflation to prevent the contraction of the country’s largest sector, exports. Not only does this place further pressure on commodity prices, but more importantly, China’s actions risk starting a currency war. During this scenario, export-dependent countries competitively devalue their currencies, warding off deflation at the cost of global growth.
Massive Debt Burden
In addition to the brewing currency crisis, the PBOC continues to foster an increasingly precarious credit situation through an accommodative monetary policy that supports the creation of bad credit via lax regulation and cheap lending. As a result, China’s total banking assets have risen by 210% in seven years, amounting to over $31 trillion as of the first quarter of 2016. Of that $31 trillion, net debt amounts to $25 trillion, including both domestic and foreign borrowing. In fact, at the end of 2015, China’s total private and public debt stood at 350% of GDP, well above the 250 to 300% level that expert studies credit to a decrease in economic growth.
Credit Inefficiency
China has reached the highest point of debt inefficiency since 2009, requiring the input of four units of credit to produce a single unit of GDP. A large factor surrounding debt inefficiency has been the increased use of new lending by both the public and private sectors to finance existing credit obligations. In 2014, the Chinese government agreed to allow the issuance of bonds by local municipalities. Since then, the income generated from 97.5% of municipal bonds has gone to paying outstanding debt obligations. Additionally, 44% of corporate bonds issued in 2015 went to repaying existing debt, which is a considerable amount when you take into consideration that China has the highest corporate debt ratio at 160% of GDP. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that China’s potential losses from corporate loan defaults would total over 7% of the country’s GDP. As of June 2016, China’s ratio of nonperforming loans hit 1.7%. Nevertheless, world-renowned management consulting firm McKinsey & Company’s credit analysis predicts this ratio could hit 15% in 2019 if China continues on its current path of exorbitant lending.
Rapid Pace in New Lending
Thus far, China has only expanded its rate of credit creation. In the first quarter of 2016, the Chinese economy experienced the biggest three-month surge in new borrowing on record, increasing credit by 6.2 trillion yuan and pushing the rate of new lending to more than 50% ahead of 2015’s pace. According to McKinsey & Company, if China continues its current borrowing trend, the cost of handling bad debt could appreciate from 1 trillion to 3 trillion yuan every year.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/072916/china-not-brexit-biggest-problem-world.asp