美聯儲：九月加息在議 場中無人相信

兩位美聯儲官員在訪亞期間紛紛向金融市場表示了九月加息的強大信心。但美國本地的投資者對此卻不以為然。

紐約德意志銀行證券有限公司的首席美國經濟學家Joseph LaVorgna指出：“市場參與者們都不相信美聯儲，因為美聯儲的官員們一直這樣說。”

美聯儲官員Kaplan稱，九月加息仍然“有很多內容”在議。

彭博社在中國對達拉斯聯儲主席Rob Kaplan進行了採訪，他說九月加息“仍有很多內容正在讨論中”。

紐約聯儲主席William Dudley在印度尼西亞發表了講話，他認為美聯儲加息絕對會趕在總統選舉之前。很多權威人士和市場參與者認為，美聯儲在努力表現得不關心政治，他們不打算在總統選舉期間改變利率。總統選舉日期為11月8日。

兩位美聯儲官員在週一同時強調，從現在到9月21日、22日之間的數據是所有決策的關鍵。

在Kaplan和Dudley發表講話之後，供應管理協會發佈了七月制造業指數，指數由六月的53.2跌至52.6，跌幅不大。

資本經濟公司經濟學家Alex Holmes表示，該數據會減輕市場對經濟崩盤的恐懼。

上週發佈的第二季度國內生產總值數據疲軟，引發了市場對經濟的擔憂，加重了對九月加息的疑慮。

報告顯示，在過去的三個季度中，經濟增長僅有1%，“因此九月加息的幾率更加渺茫了。”PNC金融集團首席經濟學家Stuart Hoffman說。

LaVorgna說：“在Dudley和Kaplan的演講以及ISM數據發佈之後，投資者們認為九月加息的可能性為18%。”

而十二月加息的可能性則略高一些，市場認為會略高於三分之一。

直到2017年9月，加息的可能性才會超過50%。

大西洋私人信託財富管理公司的首席投資官David Donabedian指出：“美聯儲已經嘗到了依靠數據的苦果。”

LaVorgna稱美聯儲試圖突出GDP中的正面數據，告訴大家情況並沒有那麼糟。

盡管他們對此表示抗議，數據“只是又一個讓人等待的理由”。

怎樣才能改變市場的自滿情緒呢？

LaVorgna說，只有耶倫的講話能夠做到。

美聯儲主席耶倫計劃在8月26日，懷俄明州傑克遜小鎮發表講話。

Fed’s Dudley, Kaplan fail to convince market Sept. rate hike is ‘on the table’

A pair of Federal Reserve officials, on separate visits to Asia, suggested overnight that the financial markets are too complacent about a September rate hike. However, investors back in the U.S. basically ignored the admonishments.

“The market doesn’t believe the Fed, it hasn’t been listening for a while,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.

Fed’s Kaplan Says September Rate Rise Still ‘Very Much’ on Table.

In a Bloomberg television interview from China, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan said a September rate hike “is very much on the table.”

New York Fed President William Dudley, in a speech in Indonesia, said he could definitely see the Fed raising interest rates even before the election. Many pundits and market participants have opined that the Fed, in an effort to appear apolitical, tends not to change rates during a presidential election. The presidential election is set for Nov. 8.

See: Fed’s Dudley warns it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year

On Monday, both officials stressed data between now and Sept. 20-21 will be key to any decision.

AfterKaplan and Dudleyspoke, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index slipped only slightly to 52.6 in July from 53.2 in the prior month.

Alex Holmes, an economist for Capital Economics, said the data should ease fears that the economy is heading for a serious downturn.

The weak second-quarter gross domestic product report released late last week sparked concerns about the economy and bolstered doubts about a September move.

The report, which showed the economy has only grown at a 1% rate over the last three quarters, “makes a September increase in the fed-funds rate even less likely,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Group.

Read: Q2 GDP closes door on Fed September rate hike

In the wake of Dudley and Kaplan’s speech and the ISM data, investors are pricing in a 18% chance of rate hike in September, LaVorgna said.

For December, the market views the chance of a rate hike at a little more than one of three.

It is not until September 2017 that the probability of a rate hike is over 50%.

“The Fed leaned the pain of becoming data dependent,” said David Donabedian,chief investment officer of Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management.

LaVorgna said the Fed will try to accentuate the positive in the GDP data and “highlight pockets that weren’t horrible.”

But despite their protestations, the data “is just another reason to wait.”

What would it take to change the market’s complacency?

Only a speech by Yellen, LaVorgna said.

The Fed Chairwoman is scheduled to speak on Aug. 26 from Jackson Hole, Wyo.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-dudley-kaplan-fail-to-convince-market-sept-rate-hike-is-on-the-table-2016-08-01