負利率政策會對消費者產生怎樣的影響

 Sean Ross  2016年8月20日

2016年4月，BlackRock Inc.的CEO Larry Fink抱怨說全球正在朝負利率的趨勢發展並表示這些政策註定會適得其反。Larry Fink指出負利率政策將使儲蓄不再產生回報，因此迫使工人儲蓄更大的比例的收入。這種觀點恰恰與負利率政策相反，例如現在在日本、瑞典和歐盟的其他國家實行的負利率政策。無論Fink的觀點正確與否，他提出了一個有趣的問題，那就是負利率對投資者和消費者的影響。

負利率政策的推出是為了鼓勵大型銀行房貸或者投資他們多餘的存款儲備並減少國家政府的利率負擔。聽起來有點怪的是消費者通常不會與這發生關系，因為他們不會參與折扣率或者大量政府債券買入。經典經濟學分析人士僅僅認為低利率將會減少儲蓄並鼓勵借貸、投資和消費。

經濟學理論的解釋

多年來，負利率政策一直被當成經濟矛盾。邏輯上，如果放貸人更願意接受在未來比現在更少的消費，一份貸款合約就能用於合理的申請真實負利率付款。例如，如果你現在購買1000美元的負真實收益債券，那麼在未來某個時間你的債券價格可能變為950美元。很少有人會願意接受這樣的合約。

負利率政策只與名義利率有關，所以負利率貸款合約可能在通貨緊縮時產生更有意義的結果。當然，低利率合約對借款人非常有利，至少從表面上看是這樣的，因為它們減少利率支出。負利率也會降低存款賬戶的利率，例如儲蓄賬戶和定期存款。一些宏觀經濟學家希望低利率能鼓勵借款並使資金流出儲蓄賬戶並進入風險更高的投資，例如股票和共同基金。

凱恩斯宏觀經濟理論說如果實際GDP和潛在GDP之間存在巨大鴻溝，負利率政策可能是必要的。新的消費和投資應該促進企業發展和就業。凱恩斯只考慮了零利率政策無效時的負利率政策。

奧地利經濟學家擔心零利率政策和負利率政策會引發不需要的通貨膨脹並允許企業參與更加有風險的項目，因為融資更加容易。當未來消費者的儲蓄被證明不足以支付這些項目，一個必要修正可能導致另一個衰退。

如果低利率使資金從儲蓄中流出並進入其他資產，這些資產的價格可能會被高估。這可能能解釋為什麼美國住宅和股票的價格一直在上漲而不是持平或者下降。隨著資產價格上漲這些資產的實際回報可能會下降。這使投資對投資者的吸引力降低，並可能使投資者對泡沫和修正產生擔心。

對低收入消費者的沖擊

負利率推動更多的貨幣進入流通，鼓勵更多的房貸。其他條件都不變的情況下，貨幣流通量的增加會使產品的價格更高。這意味著你購買汽油、食品、住房、衣服和其他商品與服務的價格更昂貴。這對所有的消費者來說都不是理想狀態，但是低收入和固定收入消費者受到的沖擊最大。那些依靠政府援助、養老金或者低薪工作生活的人不太可能看到實際收入的相應增加。

銀行將成本轉移給消費者

負利率將積壓銀行利潤。如果一個銀行必須接受更加具有風險的貸款或者因為存款向銀行付費，它可能決定將成本傳遞給存款人。這樣做的一個方式是對活期賬戶收取存款和安全費用，但是也可能採取ATM取款費用等其他措施。

更便宜的車貸和房貸

如果不考慮其他因素，負利率政策應該會鼓勵車貸和房貸。畢竟，更便宜的利息意味著你可能能支付一輛更好的汽車和更大的房子。不幸的是，大多數美國人現在都是淨貸款人並且需要償還現在的貸款，不能進行更多的貸款。

增加流動性的不穩定性和需求

到目前為止，低利率政策並未對經濟增長產生效果。公司在2016年貸款比經濟大蕭條以來的其他年份都更高，而實際收入並沒有跟上生活成本增長的步伐。人們普遍擔心金融市場在2016年末和2017年初出現衰退。消費者可能發現他們正在儲蓄更多的錢並避免投資股票。

How Negative Interest Rates Can Affect Consumers

By Sean Ross | Updated August 20, 2016 — 1:00 PM EDT

In April 2016, BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink cried out against the global trend toward negative interest rates and argued that such policies were doomed to backfire. Fink pointed out that nonexistent interest rates make it impossible to generate a return on savings, thereby forcing workers to save larger proportions of their income. This is precisely the opposite of what negative interest rate policies (NIRPs), such as those implemented in Japan, Sweden and the rest of the European Union (EU), hope to accomplish. Regardless of whether Fink is correct, he raises an interesting question about the impact of negative rates on investors and consumers.

A negative rate regime is designed to encourage huge banks to lend or invest their excess reserve deposits, and to reduce the interest burden on national governments. As strange as it sounds, consumers do not usually enter the equation because they do not directly interact with discount rates or huge government bond purchases. Classic economic analysis only suggests that low interest rates should discourage savings and encourage borrowing, investing and spending.

What Economic Theory Says

For years, negative interest rates were supposed to be an economic oxymoron. Logically, a loan contract could only reasonably apply real negative interest payments if the lender preferred less future consumption to more present consumption. For example, you would only buy a $1,000 bond with a negative real yield if you valued holding $1,000 today less than, say, $950 at some point in the future, even after adjusting for potential deflation. Very few, if any, people would accept such a contract.

NIRPs only deal in nominal interest rates, so negative rate loan contracts might make more sense in an economy with deflationary expectations. Of course, low-rate contracts are great for borrowers, at least superficially, because they reduce interest payments. Negative rates also depress interest on deposit accounts, such as savings accounts or certificates of deposit (CDs). Some macroeconomists hope low interest rates will encourage borrowing and drive money out of savings accounts and into higher-risk investments, such as stocks or mutual funds.

Keynesian macroeconomic theory says NIRP might be necessary if there is an output gap or when actual GDP is below potential GDP. New spending and investment should promote business expansion and hiring. Keynesians only consider NIRP when a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) proves ineffective.

Austrian economists worry that NIRP or ZIRP encourages unwanted inflation and allows businesses to undertake riskier projects because financing is cheaper. When future consumer savings prove insufficient to pay for such projects, a necessary correction could lead to another recession.

A Deterrent for Investors

If negative rates drive money out of savings and into other assets, the price of those other assets may become overvalued. This may explain why housing prices and stock prices keep rising in the United States despite flat or declining profitability, dividends and rents. As asset prices rise, potential real returns from those assets decline. This makes investments less enticing to investors, and may deter investors who are concerned about a bubble or correction.

Hard on Low-Income Consumers

Negative interest rates drive more currency into circulation by encouraging more loans. All else equal, higher volumes of circulated currency force prices higher than they otherwise would have been. This means it costs you more to buy gas, food, housing, clothing and other goods and services. This is suboptimal for all consumers, but it tends to hit low-income and fixed-income consumers the hardest. Those living on government assistance, pensions or low-wage jobs are less likely to see a corresponding boost in real income.

Banks Pass Costs to Consumers

Negative rates put a squeeze on bank profits. If a bank has to either accept riskier loans or pay fees to store deposits at the central bank, it may decide to compensate by passing costs along to its depositors. One way to do this is to charge a storage and security fee on demand deposit accounts, but other measures such as higher ATM fees could be more likely.

Cheaper Auto and Home Financing

Absent other factors, NIRP should encourage car loans and home mortgages. After all, cheaper interest payments mean you might be able to afford a nicer car or bigger home. Unfortunately, most Americans are already net debtors and need to pay down their existing loans, not take out more.

Added Uncertainty Increases Demand for Liquidity

Thus far, low-interest rate policies have been ineffective at promoting economic growth. Businesses are more leveraged in 2016 than at any point since the Great Recession, and real incomes are not keeping pace with the cost of living. There is widespread concern in financial markets about a possible global recession in late 2016 or 2017. Consumers may find themselves saving more money and avoiding equities as a cautionary practice.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080916/how-negative-interest-rates-can-affect-consumers.asp