美國經濟樂觀 加息有望

炎炎夏日即將結束，下半年的經濟即將開始迅速增長，這為美聯儲加息鋪平了道路。

就業率在停滞了一個春天之後重新開始加速。消費支出穩定，沒有放緩的迹象。房地產呈現出近幾年來最好的形勢。而掙紮求存的制造業闆塊也逐漸趨於穩定

本週湧現了大量的報告來描繪這一景象。新房和現房的銷量突破了衰退後時期的峰值，雖然學校即將開學，銷售旺季即將結束，但銷量仍會保持強勢。七月的長期商品和耐用品的訂單也在連續兩個月下跌後開始反彈。

並非所有的消息都是好消息。商業投資作為美國經濟的三大攔路虎之一，自2015年起開始疲軟，七月的表現可能依舊如此。

瑞士聯合銀行分析家在一篇報告中指出：“核心耐用品訂單在近幾年一直處於低迷狀態，沒有任何恢複的迹象。”

為了應對低迷的經濟環境，美聯儲主席耶倫可能在週五發佈“即將”加息的信號。懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾是全球央行年會的舉辦地，耶倫將成為這個度假勝地的絕對焦點。

至於這次投資者們會不會相信美聯儲，就很難說了。自2013年至今，美聯儲多次接近加息的邊緣卻最終反悔，最近一次便是在今年春天。

蒙特利爾資本銀行高級經濟學家Sal Guatieri指出：“現如今，投資者們都已了解聯邦公開市場委員會的鴿派原則。”

美聯儲最擔心的不是美國經濟，而是全球經濟。

中國仍在擴張，但近幾年的經濟增長速度明顯放緩。歐洲狀況略有好轉，但仍表現平平，英國退歐的陰雲仍未散去。日本經濟再度陷入停滞。

全球業務咨詢公司德勤的首席財務官Frank Friedman指出：“日本經濟增長停滞已經持續了一段時間了。”

如果美聯儲加息，很可能會引領美元繼續走高，並吸引更多的外國貨幣。強勢的美元會抑制美國出口和商業投資並傷害其他經濟體。

考慮到這些問題，美聯儲在七月的會議上表示，將評估加息對美元及全世界的影響。

此外，美聯儲的主要職責是確保美國的通脹數據不被公開。雖然價格壓力仍然很低，但若美聯儲繼續推遲加息，緊縮的勞動力市場會擡高工資成本，迫使美聯儲加速提高利率。

這是大蕭條時期使用的方法，美聯儲不想再犯這樣的錯誤了。

U.S. economy providing ammo for higher interest rates

As the dog days of summer draw to a close, the economy appears primed for somewhat faster growth in the second half of the year that’s likely to pave the way for higher U.S. interest rates.

Hiring has accelerated after a spring pause, consumer spending is steady and shows no sign of slowing, the housing market is the best it’s been in years and even the struggling manufacturing sector appears to have stabilized.

A raft of new reports this week is likely to underscore a picture. Sales of new and existing homes recently hit fresh post-recession peaks, and although the main buying season is coming to an end as school starts, sales are expected to remain strong if a toucher lower in July. Orders for long-lasting or durable goods probably also rebounded in July after two straight declines.

Not all the news is cheery. Business investment, one of three key pegs holding up the U.S. economy, has been weak since 2015. It’s likely to be soft in July as well.

Core durable orders “have been dismal for the past year and we have not observed any signals that suggest a pickup is in sight,” UBS analysts wrote in a report.

Against that backdrop, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Friday is expected to signal that an increase in interest rates is coming — soon. She is the headline attraction in the resort town of Jackson Hole, Wy., the site of an annual central bank retreat.

Also read: Yellen to say ‘ready’ for another rate hike

Whether investors believe the Fed this time, however, is far from certain. The Fed has gone to the brink of rate hikes several times since 2013 — most recently in the spring — only to pull back.

“By now investors know the doves rule the FOMC henhouse,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

The Fed’s biggest worry is not the U.S. economy, but the global one.

China is still expanding but at the slowest pace in years. Europe has shown improvement but it’s still a lackluster performer, and U.K. Brexit vote continues to hang over the region like a dark cloud. Japan has stalled again.

“Japan has been in a long period of no growth,” noted Frank Friedman, chief financial officer of the global business consultant Deloitte LLP.

If the Fed raises rates, there’s a good chance it could increase the value of an already strong DXY, +0.34%  and draw more foreign money toward the U.S. at a time when many other countries hunger for investment. A strong dollar could continue to depress Americans exports and business investment and hurt other economies.

Mindful of those worries, the Fed at its July meeting said it would evaluate the impact of a rate hike on the dollar and thus the rest of the world.

Still, the Fed’s main job is to make sure that U.S. inflation stays under wraps. While price pressures remain low, a tightening labor market could drive up the cost of wages and force the central bank to raise interest rates faster than it would like if it continues to put them off.

That’s been a recipe for recessions in the past — a mistake the Fed does not want to repeat.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-providing-ammo-for-higher-interest-rates-2016-08-21