2016年表現最差的貨幣

英國突然決定退出歐盟使英鎊在2016年的外匯市場中劇烈下跌。事實上，英鎊在2016年1月到6月中旬的下跌的幅度高於任何其他主要貨幣，並在期間跌到30年最低點。但是英鎊不是唯一下跌的貨幣，而且有比其更嚴重的貨幣。像阿根廷比索、尼日利亞奈拉、埃及鎊和委内瑞拉玻利瓦爾等主要貨幣都對英鎊出現大幅度貶值。

雖然高度的不確定性和有争議的貨幣政策抑制了英國、埃及和阿根廷的貨幣，但是委内瑞拉的問題來自不同的原因。尼日利亞的情況特殊，原因是6月20日開始浮動匯率之前有幾個月的固定匯率，使其很難與其他貨幣進行橫向比較。

委内瑞拉玻利瓦爾

委内瑞拉的在2016年上半年的處境非常艱難，而且2016年下半年的前景也不盡人意。大量的委内瑞拉人正在與糧食短缺、停電和日益增長的軍事分裂做鬥争。獲得準確的委内瑞拉經濟信息是非常困難的，但是有充分的理由懷疑政府給出的62.2%的通脹率是否真實。

國際貨幣基金組織在4月發佈的預測估計委内瑞拉2016年的通脹率為481%。到7月，這一數字增長到700%。由於當前政府政策和預計的經濟下跌，2017年的通脹預期為驚人的1642%。

情況很快就變成了一個典型的惡性通貨膨脹循環模式。2013年，委内瑞拉的通脹率約為41%。這一數字在2014年增長到63%，而到2015年則達到了275%。換個角度來說，2012年1美元約可以兌換4内瑞拉玻利瓦爾。而這一匯率在2015年末達到了1美元兌換900内瑞拉玻利瓦爾。如果國際貨幣基金組織的預測是準確的，2017年末1美元可以兌換90000到100000玻利瓦爾。

尼日利亞奈拉

2016年表現最差的貨幣是奈拉。到7月，奈拉在官方市場價值下跌約29.5%，交易價格約為360奈拉對兌1美元和470 奈拉兌1英鎊。所有的這些下跌都出現在6月中旬開始自由浮動之後的6週。當貨幣從固定匯率變成浮動匯率時價格出現劇烈波動是很正常的，但是尼日利亞的歷史和巨大的通脹率都使人擔憂。

埃及鎊

埃及中央銀行在2016對埃及鎊實施戰略性貶值，試圖遏制在埃及黑市的巨額非法交易。與奈拉和英鎊不同，雖然有預測表示埃及央行可能採用更加靈活的匯率機制以應對困難的經濟形勢，埃及鎊現在還在執行固定匯率體制。

2016年初埃及鎊兌美元的固定匯率為7.73 EGP/USD，遠遠高於黑市的9.5-11 EGP/USD。埃及央行的決定會幫助緩解這一不平衡狀況，但是一些人擔心增加的貨幣將會加劇埃及已經令人不安的通脹率。

阿根廷比索和英鎊

很難弄清阿根廷比索和英鎊在2016年前七個月中表現誰更糟糕。二者分別兌美元下跌11%和13%，而且出於不同的原因這兩個國家都曾登上過金融新聞的頭條，阿根廷的原因是政治腐敗，英國的原因是内鬥和退歐帶來的不確定性。

比索的情況可能比英鎊還要糟糕，因為其未來前景更少。英國退歐在最初引起了金融市場的震動，但是商業環境已經開始反彈，而且距離英國正式和歐盟脫離關系還有兩年的緩沖。

阿根廷的經濟更加脆弱並且其政治前景更加不確定。此外，阿根廷的通脹率被預計在年底前將超過35%。阿根廷的情況還沒有像委内瑞拉那麼嚴重，但是這個國家的經濟已經到了崩潰的邊緣。阿根廷不想重複其貨幣失敗的歷史。

The Worst-Performing Currencies of 2016

By Sean Ross | August 25, 2016 — 3:00 PM EDT

The United Kingdom's surprising decision to leave the European Union, known as the "Brexit," sent the British pound sterling (GBP) tumbling in foreign exchange (forex) currency markets in 2016. In fact, the pound lost more value than any of the world's major currencies from January to mid-July, and plunged to 30-year lows in the process. It isn't the only currency that struggled, however, and some have been far worse. Minor currencies such as the Argentine peso (ARS), Nigerian naira (NGN), Egyptian pound (EGP) and Venezuelan bolivar (VEF) have each fallen significantly against the U.S. dollar (USD).

While heightened uncertainty or questionable monetary policy helps suppress currency used in the United Kingdom, Egypt and Argentina, the calamity in Venezuela is of a different magnitude altogether. The Nigerian situation is unique because the naira was pegged to the U.S. dollar for several months before being allowed to float on June 20, 2016, making it difficult to conduct an apples-to-apples comparison.

Venezuelan Bolivar

Venezuela had a very difficult first half of 2016, and prospects are poor for the second half. Masses of Venezuelans struggle with food shortages, power outages and an increasingly militaristic government desperate to maintain control. It is difficult to get accurate economic information from Venezuela, but there is serious reason to doubt the validity of government statistics that show a 62.2% annual inflation rate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released projections in April that the estimated annual inflation in Venezuela during 2016 would be 481%. By July, those estimates rose to 700%. Based on current government policy and expected economic declines, the 2017 inflation projection is a dizzying 1,642%.

The situation is quickly resembling a classic hyperinflation pattern. In 2013, Venezuelan inflation was estimated at 41%. This rose to 63% by 2014 and 275% in 2015. To put this into perspective, an American could exchange one U.S. dollar for approximately four Venezuelan bolivars in 2012. The exchange ratio climbed to $1 for 900 bolivars by the end of 2015. If the IMF's projections are accurate, $1 could purchase between 90,000 and 100,000 bolivars by the end of 2017.

Nigerian Naira

The worst-performing currency in 2016 is the naira. By July, the NGN lost approximately 29.5% value on the official market, trading at more than 360 NGN/USD and more than 470 NGN/GBP. All of those losses occurred within a six-week window after the naira began free-floating in mid-June. Sharp swings in relative currency prices are customary when switching from a fixed-rate to a free-floating-rate regime, but Nigeria has a history of dramatic and worrying inflation.

Egyptian Pound

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) strategically devalued the Egyptian pound in 2016, in an attempt to drive out illegal transactions in Egypt's huge black market. Unlike the naira or pound sterling, the Egyptian pound still operates on a fixed exchange-rate system, though there are expectations that the CBE might adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime in response to tough economic conditions.

The Egyptian pound started out 2016 at a fixed rate of 7.73 EGP/USD, well above the going black market rate of roughly 9.5 to 11 EGP/USD. The CBE's decision to devalue the pound should help alleviate this imbalance, but some worry that the extra currency will exacerbate Egypt's already troubling inflation rate.

Argentine Peso and British Pound

It is tough to figure out whether the Argentine peso or the British pound had a worse first seven months of 2016. Each fell between 11 and 13% against the U.S. dollar, and each country has been in the financial headlines for the wrong reasons: Argentina for political corruption, and the United Kingdom for internal strife and the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit.

The peso is probably in worse shape than the British pound, because of fewer future prospects. Brexit dominated headlines and initially shook financial markets, but business conditions are already on the rebound, and it will still be two years before the country officially breaks ties with the European Union.

Argentina has a much more fragile economy and a more uncertain political future. Moreover, the Argentine inflation rate is expected to be greater than 35% before year's end. Conditions in Argentina aren't nearly as bad yet as in Venezuela, but this is an economy on the edge. Argentina does not want to repeat its history of failed currencies.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stock-analysis/082516/worstperforming-currencies-2016.asp