Chase Carmichael 2016年8月21日
月23日英國公投決定離開歐盟，6月24日英鎊兌美元下跌12%達到30年的最低點。據估計英國退出歐盟和英鎊下跌將會對英國的並購活動（M&A）造成重大影響，很可能在短期内增加交易的數量但是在長期則對行業造成嚴重損害。律師事務所Baker & McKenzie預測退歐公投將使英國在合並和收購中的損失超過3380億美元，到2020年對跨國公司造成的損失將高達1.6萬億。
短期内收購和合並活動的增加
盡管健康和活躍的並購市場與信用和信心息息相關，但是英鎊價格下跌使一些交易對國外買家更加有吸引力。英國的投資銀行報告來自亞洲公司的收購正在增加。6月，日本電訊公司SoftBank Group Corp.提出了以243億歐元收購英國軟件設計和半導體公司ARM Holdings PLC 的計劃，創始人Herman Hauser把這個交易描述成英國退歐決定帶來的影響之一。在6月的公投之前，SoftBan已經考慮要收購ARMH了。然而，英鎊接近10%的下跌促使該日本公司啟動了計劃。
中國並購的激增
6月中旬，王健林的萬達以9.21億歐元收購了英國的Odeon & UCI影院集團。最近，來自中國的並購活動有大幅度增加。2016年是中國跨境交易數量（364起）和交易價值（1058億美元）最大的一年。2016年上半年，中國跨境交易活動總量已經超過800億美元，而且據估計因為英鎊價格的下跌這一數量將會大幅增加。
總體並購交易數量的下降
盡管來自中國的跨境交易數量迅速上升，2016年英國並購活動的數量僅為一年前的一半多。2015年英國的並購活動數量達到歷史最高點，總交易價值為2015億美元。考慮到今年的並購活動可能達到2011年以來的最低點，英國退歐對投資者心理帶來的影響是不可低估的。即使是通常在不利情況下獲利的收購闆塊，也在對英國公司進行大幅度收購時採取謹慎態度。目前英國退歐帶來的不確定性影響的風險非常大。
債務融資和上市數量的下降
除了並購行業，有超過6個原來計劃進行融資交易和IPO的公司現在必須改變計劃了。Dealogic的數據顯示英國2016年IPO籌集的資金比2015年同期下降50億美元。截止到2016年6月中旬，籌集的資金僅為33.3億美元，而去年同期為82.9億美元。此外，英國的跨境並購交易約比去年同期下降74%。湯森路透的數據將2016年英國並購活動列入歷史最低點，到6月中旬僅占國際活動的4%。盡管英鎊下跌使一些交易更具吸引力，但是不可預測的英國退歐結果給潛在投資者的心理造成重大打擊，減少了英國並購活動的數量。
Will Brexit Hurt M&A in UK? (SFTBY, AMC)
By Chase Carmichael | Updated August 21, 2016 — 12:00 PM EDT
Since Britain's June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union, the pound sterling has slid 12% against the U.S. dollar to a 31-year low as of July 24, 2016. The Brexit decision and a falling pound sterling are expected to make waves in merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity, potentially boosting the number of deals in the near term while severely hurting the industry in the long run. Law firm Baker & McKenzie predicts that the Brexit vote will cost the United Kingdom upwards of $338 billion in lost M&A activity, and cost the international economy up to $1.6 trillion by 2020.
Near-Term M&A Boost
While a healthy and active M&A market is all about credibility and confidence, the fall in the pound sterling's value has made some deals much more attractive for overseas buyers. Britain's investment banks are reporting increased inquiries from Asian companies. In June, the Japanese telecommunications company SoftBank Group Corp. (OTC: SFTBY) proposed a 24.3 billion euro takeover of the British software design and semiconductor company ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH), which founder Herman Hauser describes as one of the "sad and unintended consequences" of the Brexit decision. Before the referendum in June, SoftBank was already considering a takeover of the smartphone chip designer. However, a more than 10% drop in the pound sterling prompted the Japanese company to pull the trigger.
Surge in Chinese Acquisitions
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC), the cinema chain owned by China's wealthiest citizen, Wang Jianlin, bought out U.K.-based Odeon & UCI Cinemas Group for 921 million euros in mid-July 2016. Lately, there has been a phenomenal surge in Chinese M&A activity. The year 2015 was the largest for Chinese cross-border deals in terms of the number of deals (364) and aggregate transaction value ($105.8 billion). For the first half of 2016, total Chinese cross-border M&A activity had already topped $80 billion and is expected to increase further with the fall of the pound sterling's value.
Decline in Total M&A Activity
Despite the immediate uptick in the amount of Chinese cross-border deals, U.K. M&A activity has so far been more than halved from the year before to $73.3 billion for 2016. Britain M&A activity enjoyed a record year in 2015, with a total transaction value of $201.5 billion. Considering that M&A activity is now on pace to reach its lowest level since 2011, the full impact of Brexit on the mindset of investors cannot be understated. Even the buyout sector, which usually takes advantage of distressed situations, is wary of attempting any big takeovers in the United Kingdom; the risks surrounding the uncertainty of the eventual outcome of the Brexit are simply too large at the moment.
Fall in Debt Financing & IPOs
In addition to the M&A industry, more than half a dozen British companies that had planned to begin debt-financing deals and initial public offerings (IPOs) must now change their plans. Dealogic data shows that the amount of capital raised by U.K. IPOs is down by almost $5 billion in 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. From January to mid-June of 2016, only $3.33 billion has been raised, down from $8.29 billion in the same period in 2015. Additionally, cross-border M&A deals in the United Kingdom are down by roughly 74% from the same span of time a year earlier. Thomson Reuters' data puts Britain's M&A activity at record lows for 2016, accounting for only 4% of international activity through mid-June. While a cheap pound sterling has certainly made some deals financially more attractive, the unforeseen consequences of Brexit have collectively put a major dent in the psyches of would-be investors, punishing Britain's M&A activity.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080816/will-brexit-hurt-ma-uk-sftby-amc.asp