2016年對美元最弱的貨幣

2016-08-31 15:05:09

 Chase Carmichael  2016年8月26日

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隨著美國經濟在中國增長放緩和歐盟岌岌可危時緩慢增長,美元指數不斷升值,截止到2016年7月的兩年中上漲了21%。美元的強勁對全球經濟產生了連鎖反應,增加了以美元計價的債務成本並阻礙了全球貿易增長的速度,此外還降低了其他貨幣相對美元的價值。
 
越南盾
截止到2016年7月,越南的貨幣越南盾兌美元匯率大約為22376:1。這使越南盾成為美國承認的全球180多種貨幣中兌美元價值最低的法定貨幣。然而,一種貨幣相對另一種貨幣的強度只在判斷從一段時間到另一段時間中該貨幣相對於另一種貨幣價值上升或者下降多少時重要。作為全球使用最多的儲備貨幣,美元是進行這種計算時最受歡迎的交易媒介。盡管從2016年初到現在兌換一美元的越南盾數量增長了238,但是這只使越南盾兌美元的匯率從年初到現在下降1%。
 
委内瑞拉玻利瓦爾
同樣,美元/玻利瓦爾的匯率也從年初的6.29上升到現在的9.98,導致玻利瓦爾相對美元貶值37%。這使玻利瓦爾成為2016年至今對美元最弱的貨幣。委内瑞拉貨幣貶值背後的原因是通脹水平的飙升,超過了700%,而且該國的經濟不斷萎縮,據預計將在2016年萎縮8%。這種貨幣和經濟災難導致了國内危機,糧食短缺的危機正在不斷增長,導致該國30%的兒童營養不良並且辍學率不斷增加。盡管官方的美元/玻利瓦爾匯率為9.98,但是在該國的黑市中一美元能兌換超過1000玻利瓦爾,這給委内瑞拉的危機做出了合適的描述。
 
英鎊
盡管英國經濟很健康,但是在其於2016年7月27日決定結束其43年的歐盟成員關系之後也遇到政治和經濟危機。在退歐投票結束之後,英鎊立即下跌11%跌到對美元的31年低點。巧合的是,英鎊/美元的匯率也從年初到現在下降11%。退出歐盟使很多投資者對英國引發擔心,因為該國的未來經濟存在巨大的不確定性。惠譽國際評級和標準普爾都降低英國的主權債務信用評級。據預計英國退出歐洲經濟聯盟的過程要持續超過兩年時間,這將給未來環境對國際經濟和貨幣市場的影響帶來更多的不確定性。
 
人民幣
與英國相反,中國央行直接引發了人民幣的貶值,使人民兌美元從年初的6.493增加到現在的6.683。在2015年將其外匯儲備從2.62萬億美元削減到939億美元之後,人民幣/美元匯率下跌了7.5%,而從年初到現在下跌了3%。中國央行進行人民幣貶值是為了通過使其貨物以美元計價時更便宜從而增加出口。通過這麼做,中國希望通過阻止其最大闆塊出口業的萎縮維持其GDP的增長。然而,人民幣貶值增加貿易有引發貨幣戰争的風險,貨幣戰争是指出口依賴型國家競争性貶值、損害全球經濟。
 
Weakest Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar in 2016
By Chase Carmichael | August 29, 2016 — 12:51 PM EDT
 
As the American economy slowly strengthens amid weakening growth in China and a fragile European Union, the U.S. Dollar Index has appreciated in value, rising 21% over the span of two years, as of July 2016. The robust greenback has had a ripple effect through the global economy, raising the cost of dollar-denominated debt and stalling international trade growth, in addition to depreciating the value of other currencies.
 
Vietnamese Dong
As of July 2016, the currency of Vietnam, the dong, was valued at roughly 22,376 units per U.S. dollar. This makes the dong the weakest medium of exchange out of the 180 total currencies internationally recognized as legal tender by the United Nations. However, the value of a currency relative to another is only important as a gauge to how much that currency has strengthened or weakened relative to the other currency from one point in time to another. As the most frequently used reserve currency of the world, the U.S. dollar is the most popular medium of exchange to use when making such calculations. Although the amount of dongs per U.S. dollar has risen by 238 since the start of 2016, this is only a 1% year-to-date (YTD) drop in the VND/USD exchange rate.
 
Venezuelan Bolivar
Comparably, the U.S. dollar-to-Venezuelan-bolivar exchange rate has risen from 6.29 to 9.98 YTD, resulting in a 37% depreciation of the bolivar relative to the greenback. This makes the bolivar the relatively weakest currency to the U.S. dollar for 2016 thus far. The weakness behind Venezuela's currency has been fueled by surging levels of inflation, greater than 700%, and a contracting economy that is predicted to shrink by 8% in 2016. This monetary and economic calamity has led to a domestic crisis where the severity of a food shortage grows every day, leaving 30% of children malnourished amid a rising rate of school absences. While the official USD/VEF exchange rate is at 9.98, in the country's thriving black market, a dollar is worth more than 1,000 bolivar, giving proper illustration to the extent of Venezuela's crisis.
 
British Pound
Despite a healthy economy, the United Kingdom has experienced its own political and currency crisis, following the decision to sever its 43-year EU membership on June 27, 2016. Immediately after the Brexit vote, the pound fell 11% to a 31-year low relative to the U.S. dollar. Coincidentally, the GBP/USD exchange rate is also down 11%, YTD. Such a monumental move in exiting the EU has left many investors wary of Britain, due to enormous uncertainties facing the country’s future. Both Fitch Ratings Inc. and Standard & Poor’s have downgraded Britain's sovereign debt ratings. The process of exiting the European economic union is expected to last more than two years, bringing more uncertainty to how the situation may influence the international economy and currency markets of the future.
 
Chinese Yuan Renminbi
Contrary to Britain, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has directly caused the devaluation of its currency, the Chinese yuan, from 6.493 units per U.S. dollar to 6.683 YTD. After reducing its foreign-exchange reserves by $2.62 trillion to $93.9 billion in August 2015, the CNY/USD exchange rate has since dropped by 7.5% over the past 11 months and by 3% YTD. The PBOC has devalued its currency to increase exports by making them cheaper in terms of the dollar. By doing so, China hopes to maintain its gross domestic product (GDP) growth by preventing the contraction of its largest sector, exports. However, devaluing the yuan to increase trade runs the risk of beginning a currency war, where export-dependent countries competitively devalue their currency, damaging the global economy in the process.
 
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文章來源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/082916/weakest-currencies-against-us-dollar-2016.asp
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