八月的市場平靜無波，但並不意味著大股指已經平穩地結束了，或許獨立版塊的行動還沒有開始。
標普500指數本月僅僅下跌了0.1%，使得能源金融股票的趨勢變得模糊不清，公共事業等防禦性闆塊的疲軟也被彌補了。
即便如此，交易員們似乎也在紛紛“離開”。分析家們指出：“近來的市場表現遠不及五月，快離開吧。”從以往的歷史經驗來看，夏季表現不佳似乎是颠之不破的真理。
芝加哥蒙特利爾私人銀行首席投資官Jack Ablin說：“截至八月底，我們公司股票上漲了5%，我們今年的收益主要從五月開始的。當前的市場仍然十分平靜，大選即將到來，問題在於美聯儲。投資者們認為，如果繼續等待，很多問題便會漸漸明朗。”
以往他們便是這樣做的。不僅指數、版塊及資產類別的交易量偏低，季節性問題也要考慮在内，但是投資者們所見的移動確實很小。高盛集團指出，7月8日以來，標普500指數在一天之内的波動幅度不及1%，這是2014年夏天以來時間最久的一次。而CBOE波動指數在八月上漲了13%，將“恐慌指數”推至13.4，但仍然低於20這一長期平均水平，這是六月以來未曾出現的情況。
雖然歷年八月的交易量都不太高，但是今年八月是在是太安靜了，專業交易員們都大為吃驚。SPDR S&P 500 ETF八月的交易量約為17.3億股，遠低於2015年同期的26億。ETF的交易量較去年八月減少了一半不止，但是去年八月人民幣貶值，引發了市場動亂，很難直接和今年的情況進行比較。
美國全球投資者有限公司的操盤手主管Michael Matousek說：“我做這一行有20多年了，狀況似乎一年不如一年。”八月的交易量少，因而被稱為“最不適合交易的月份”。“在我做職業交易員的時候，我總會把假期安排在八月，因為這時候交易量低，開倉平倉不易，很容易虧損。”
也許八月最大的事件就是美聯儲在傑克遜霍爾召開的年度例會，美聯儲主席耶倫表示，她看到了美國經濟增長的迹象，這會提高加息的可能性。投資者便將其視為九月加息的信號。
對加息的期待會促進金融股的增長（通過提高淨息差），也會損害到公共事業股（更傾向於分紅的低利率環境）。在八月中，美國金融指數ETF在所有的標普500版塊ETF中表現最為強勢，上漲了3.9%，而公共事業股票則表現最差，下跌了5.5%。
在其他版塊，黃金期貨在八月底創下兩月新低。
SPDR黃金信托基金在八月下跌了3%，流出額約為9710萬美元。自年初至今，該基金是所有ETF中表現最好的，投資者投入了110億美元的資金。而iShares白銀信托基金則下跌了8.1%。
Here are August’s biggest movers on the Dow, S&P 500
It’s no secret that markets were quiet in August, but don’t think that just because broader indexes ended relatively flat that individual sectors didn’t see their share of action.
The slight downward bias of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.24% which fell 0.1% for the month, obscures the strength that was seen in energy and financial stocks, as well as the offsetting weakness in more defensive areas of the market like the utility sector.
Even though traders seemed to “go away,” in August, analysts noted that recent market action didn’t qualify as a “sell in May, go away” situation, referring to a popular market axiom about historical underperformance in the summer.
“Since the end of April we’re up 5%—most of the entire return we’ve enjoyed this year has been since the beginning of May,” saidJack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago. “But it’s still very quiet out there. Markets are fully priced, we’ve got an election coming up, questions about the Fed—there are a number of issues that investors think they’ll get more clarity on if they just wait.”
Wait they did—historically so. Not only were trading volumes low across indexes, sectors and asset classes, even when seasonality is taken into account, but the moves investors did see were slight. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed with a daily move of more than 1% (either positive or negative) since July 8, the longest such period since the summer of 2014, according to Goldman Sachs. And while the CBOE Volatility index VIX, +2.29% rose 13% over August, bringing the “fear index” to 13.4, it remains well below its long-term average of 20, a level it hasn’t seen since June.
Even though volumes in August are traditionally thin, professional traders expressed surprise over how quiet it was this year. Roughly 1.73 billion shares traded on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, -0.28% over the course of the month, significantly under the average monthly volume of 2.6 billion seen over the course of 2015. Trading on the ETF was also more than 50% below its volume last August, although direct comparisons are difficult as concerns over China in August 2015—including the country’s unexpected devaluation of its currency—led to turmoil with no equivalent this year.
“I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and every year it feels like it gets slower,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc. in San Antonio, who called August “one of the worst months to trade in” because of the low volume. “When I was a prop trader I would take the majority of days off in August because the low volume makes it harder to get in and out of your positions and I’d lose more money than I’d make.”
Perhaps the biggest story of the month came after the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, where Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said she was seeing signs of improvement in the U.S. economy and a strengthening case for a rate rise. Investors took the statement as a sign that a rate increase was in the cares in coming months, a view reinforced by subsequent comments from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer.
Hopes for higher rates both boosted financial shares—which stand to benefit from rising net interest margins—and hurt utility stocks, which have been favored in the low-rate environment for to their dividends. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFXLF, +0.08% had the strongest performance of any S&P 500 sector ETF this month, with a gain of 3.9%, while the utility equivalent XLU, +0.41% had the weakest, down 5.5%.
Among other asset classes, gold futures GCZ6, +0.08% ended August at two-month lows, recording their first monthly loss since May.
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD, -0.20% fell 3% in August and saw outflows of $97.1 million. However, the fund has seen some of the strongest inflows of any ETF year-to-date, with investors pouring more than $11 billion into it. The iShares Silver Trust ETF SLV, +0.28% fell 8.1% in August.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/quiet-august-for-dow-sp-500-obscures-these-big-moves-2016-08-31