Alan Farley 2016年9月2日
美元是全球流通量最大的貨幣，在其後面是歐元、日元和英鎊。美元指數通過幾何平均數的形式反映美元對歐元、日元、英鎊、加元、瑞典克朗和瑞士法郎的相對價值，這些貨幣在計算中所占的比例分別為57.6%、13.6%、11.9%、9.1%、4.2%和3.6%。
外匯交易者通過貨幣對對美元相對強弱進行實時投資。雖然經紀商提供數十個相關貨幣對，大多數外匯交易者主要關註以下六個主要貨幣對：
歐元——EUR/USD
瑞士法郎——USD/CHF
日元——USD//JPY
英鎊——GBP/USD
澳元——AUD/USD
加元——USD/CAD
美元在美國的交易時間是從週日晚上持續到週五下午，提供巨大的獲利機會。然而，每天的交易量和價格波動可能出現巨大變化，非主要貨幣對的點差在平靜時段加大而在活躍時段減小。盡管在任何時間都能開倉和平倉的能力是外匯交易的主要優勢，但是大多數美元交易策略都適合活躍時段。
許多外匯交易者將所有精力都集中在EUR/USD貨幣對上，該貨幣對是全球市場最受歡迎和流動性最大的貨幣對。EUR/USD在全天的點差都非常小，而多重日内催化使其價格走勢能保證在任何時段的買賣方向都有可交易趨勢。傳統交易策略在長短期波動中都能表現良好，包括擺動交易和通道交易。
美元價格催化劑
交易美元的最好時間是經濟數據發佈和全球股票、期權和期貨交易所開盤時段。這些新聞之前的準備需要雙方面調查，因為澳大利亞、亞洲和歐元區能使流行貨幣對產生相同的運動。美國經濟數據對24小時週期的定價影響最大的原因如下：1.它對所有貨幣對產生影響；2.排名第二的中國經濟前景的變化對全球產生了連鎖反應。
此外，美元貨幣對很容易受到那些觸發股票、貨幣和債券價格變化的經濟和政治宏觀事件影響。2015年8月中國對人民幣的貶值就是一個完美的例子。而且自然災害也能產生這中類型的影響，2011年日本海嘯就對此做出了很好的诠釋。
經濟數據
美國經濟數據發佈通常是在上午東部時間8:30和10:00之間，那時將會產生非常巨大的交易量，有很大的幾率主要貨幣對價格都會出現區間運動。日本和澳大利亞的經濟數據發佈美國東部時間4:30與9:30到10:00之間，將對USD/JPY和AUD/USD產生影響，但是來自歐洲的關註將很少，因為那時歐洲正處在午夜的睡夢中。盡管如此，這些時間段的外匯交易量也會劇烈上升。
歐元區經濟數據影響美元與歐元、瑞士法郎和英鎊的貨幣對，這些數據發佈集中在美國東部時間的上午2:00和5:00之間。數據發佈之前的60到30分鐘和發佈之後1到3個小時是交易上述貨幣對的高峰時間，因為這一趨勢將會延續到美國交易日，使大西洋兩岸的交易量都出現巨大增長。
美元和全球交易所時間
許多美元交易者的時間表大致與交易所時間相同，將他們的交易活動集中在法蘭克福、東京、上海、香港、悉尼、紐約和芝加哥的股票、期貨和期權交易所的營業時間。這種時間分佈使美國東部海岸深夜時間的交易量劇增，這種趨勢會持續一夜並延續到美國午飯時間，之後外匯交易量急劇下降。
然而，中央銀行日程表會改變這種活動週期，全球交易者都會在下午2:00坐在電腦前等待美聯儲的利率決定和會議結果。其他央行決定的發佈時間如下：
日本央行——美國東部時間上午12:00
澳大利亞聯邦儲備銀行——美國東部時間上午12:30
英格蘭銀行——美國東部時間上午7:00
歐洲中央銀行——美國東部時間上午7:45
日本、澳大利亞和歐元央行決定的發佈時間都是在交易活躍時段，而美國聯邦公開市場委員會的決定卻是個例外，其報告發佈的時間是歐洲的晚上並且是亞洲和澳大利亞的黃昏前。這給美國交易者提供了便利，因為太平洋和大西洋另一頭的交易者通常需要犧牲睡夢等待美聯儲的決定。
總結
六個主要貨幣對為美元交易者提供大量的長短期交易機會。交易這些貨幣對最好的時間是美國和其他地方經濟數據發佈的前後、美國東部時間的深夜和午餐之間的時間。
These Are The Best Hours To Trade the U.S. Dollar (USD)
By Alan Farley | Updated September 2, 2016 — 1:56 PM EDT
The U.S. Dollar (USD) ranks as the most popular currency in the world, trailed by the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and British Pound Sterling (GBP). The U.S. Dollar Index provides a comprehensive snapshot of long- and short-term price action through a geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to the following currencies and weighting:
Euro (EUR) 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 3.6%
Forex traders speculate on USD strength and weakness through currency pairs that establish comparative value in real time. Although brokers offer dozens of related crosses, the majority of clients focus their attention on the six most popular pairs:
Euro - EUR/USD
Swiss Franc - USD/CHF
Japanese Yen - USD//JPY
British Pound - GBP/USD
Australian Dollar - AUD/USD
Canadian Dollar - USD/CAD
USD trades continuously from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon in the United States, offering significant opportunities for profit. However, volume and volatility can fluctuate greatly in each 24-hour cycle, with spreads in the less popular pairs widening during quiet periods and narrowing during active periods. While the ability to open and close positions at any time marks a key forex benefit, most USD trading strategies unfold during active periods.
Many forex traders focus their full attention on the EUR/USD cross, the most popular and liquid currency market in the world. The cross maintains a tight spread throughout the 24-hour cycle, while multiple intraday catalysts ensure that price action will set up tradable trends in both direction and in all time frames. Long- and short-term swings also work extremely well with classic rangebound strategies, including swing trading and channel trading.
U.S. Dollar Price Catalysts
The best times to trade the U.S. dollar track the release of economic data as well as open hours at equity, options and futures exchanges around the world. Planning ahead for these releases requires two-sided research because catalysts in Australia, Asia and the Eurozone will move popular pairs with the same intensity as will local U.S. catalysts. U.S. economic data exhibits the greatest impact on pricing in most 24-hour cycles for two reasons: a) it affects all currency pairs and b) the economy ranks second in the world behind China, with changes in its economic outlook having an immediate ripple effect across the planet.
In addition, USD crosses are vulnerable to economic and political macro events that trigger highly correlated price action across equities, currencies and bond markets around the world. China’s devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 offers a perfect illustration. Even natural disasters have the power to generate this type of coordinated response, as evidenced by the 2011 Japanese tsunami.
Economic Releases
U.S. economic releases centered at 8:30 am and 10:00 am ET generate extraordinary USD trading volume, with high odds for strongly trending price movement in most popular pairs. Japanese and Australian releases move the USD/JPY and AUD/USD but get less European attention because they’re centered at 4:30 pm, 9:30 pm and 10:00 pm ET when Europe is in the middle of their sleep cycle. Even so, forex trading volume will spike sharply around these time zones.
Eurozone economic data impacts USD crosses with EUR, CHF and GBP, with key releases centered between 2:00 am and 5:00 am ET. The time segment from 30 to 60 minutes prior to these releases and 1 to 3 hours afterwards highlights an enormously popular period to trade European USD crosses because it overlaps the run-up into the U.S. trading day, drawing in significant volume from both sides of the Atlantic.
U.S. Dollar and World Exchange Hours
The schedules for many USD traders roughly follow exchange hours, centering their activity when Frankfurt, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, New York and Chicago equity, futures and options markets are open for business. This localization generates an increase in trading volume around in the late evening on the U.S. East Coast, continuing through the night and into the American lunch hour, when forex trading activity can drop sharply.
However, central bank agendas shift this activity cycle, with forex traders around the world staying at their desks when the Federal Reserve (FOMC) is scheduled to release a 2:00 pm interest rate decision or the minutes of the prior meeting. Other central banks schedule their decisions as follows:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) - 12:00 am ET
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - 12:30 am ET
Bank of England (BOE) - 7:00 am ET
European Central Bank (ECB) - 7:45 am ET
Central bank decisions in Japan, Australia and Europe occur during already active traded periods while the FOMC is an outlier, reporting late in the European evening and in the Asia and Australian pre-dawn hours. This offers convenience to U.S.traders, while market players on the other side of the Atlantic and Pacific often need to lose sleep to stay ahead of the Fed’s market moving policy shifts.
The Bottom Line
Six popular currency pairs offer U.S. dollar traders a wide variety of short and long-term opportunities. The best times to trade these instruments are centered before and after economic releases in in the U.S. and cross-venues, with active forex trading between the late evening U.S. Eastern Time and the following lunch hour.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/090915/these-are-best-hours-trade-us-dollar.asp