美聯儲推遲加息的最大原因

促使美聯儲在週三維持利率不變的另一個原因是：新的貨幣市場法規將在下月生效，金融環境會進一步收緊。

倫敦銀行間同業拆解利率(Libor)是用來計算銀行之間相互借貸美元的成本。它也是世界各地私營部門數以億計的美元債務的參考基準利率，其中包括企業貸款和房貸。該利率自去年開始持續上漲，近來甚至突破了2008年至2009年金融危機時期的最高水平。

上漲主要歸功於將在十月中旬上線的證券和交易委員會貨幣市場新規。

德意志銀行首席國際經濟學家Torsten Slok在週一的評論中指出，緊縮的金融環境到達了與加息相同的結果。

Slok 寫道：“我認為Libor利率上漲會促使美聯儲推遲加息。他們會觀察在10月14日貨幣市場新規發佈後，短期Libor利率是會維持在當前水平還是會出現回落。”

上升的Libor和短期融資成本通常被視為銀行間市場的壓力信號。上漲的Libor也會反映出官方利率上升的預期。

但近來的大部分移動都歸因於新的貨幣市場規定，該規定要求商業票據、定期存款等私營部門債務投資允許價格浮動。目前為止，大多數基金將股價定為1美元。SEC認為透明度的增長會促使投資者調整持有數量，從而應對不斷變化的資本價值，這樣就不會出現價值不足1美元時投資者蜂擁退出的情況了。

而隨著規定的變更，很多投資者會退出所謂的主要貨幣基金，湧向新規豁免的基金，因為他們只投資政府證券。這意味著商業票據和定期存款的購買量會隨著Libor的增長而減少。

美聯儲的政策制定者希望在週三的兩日會議中保持利率穩定，少數央行觀察人士認為,這將是千鈞一發的時刻。週一收盤時股市波動不大，標普500指數基本持平。

Slok並不孤單。

“如果美元變得強勢，Libor和美國債券收益皆有增加，面對緊縮的金融環境，美聯儲何必要加息呢。”墨爾本IG集團首席市場策略師Chris Weston在週一的評論中寫道。

確實，近幾週來某些投資者認為增加的貨幣市場利率會給美聯儲鴿派官員帶來極大的助力。

Here’s one big reason the Fed can wait to raise rates

Here’s another reason why the Federal Reserve can leave rates unchanged Wednesday: Financial conditions are significantly tighter thanks to new money-market regulations that go into effect next month.

Libor—the London interbank offered rate, a measure of the cost for banks to borrow from each other in dollars that also serves as a benchmark reference rate for trillions of dollars in private-sector debt around the world, including corporate loans and mortgages—has been on the rise since late last year, recently hitting levels not seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Much of the increase has been attributed to anticipation of new Securities and Exchange Commission money-market rules that will take effect mid-October.

The upshot is that the resulting tightening of financial conditions is doing the same job that a Fed rate increase would accomplish, argues Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist, Torsten Slok, in a Monday note.

“I think that the move up in Libor rates is an important argument for the Fed to stay on hold this week and then wait and see if short Libor rates remain at these levels after the new money-market funds rules go into effect on Oct. 14, or if they begin to come down,” Slok wrote.

Elevated Libor and related short-term funding costs are often viewed as a sign of stress in the interbank market (such rates were watched with alarm in the midst of the financial crisis as credit markets froze and the global banking system teetered on collapse). Rising Libor can also reflect expectations for rising official interest rates.

But the bulk of the move this time around has been attributed to the new money-market rules, which will require funds that invest in private-sector debt, such as commercial paper or certificates of deposit, to let their share prices float. Until now, most funds fixed share prices at $1. The SEC contends increased transparency will let investors adjust holdings in response to changing asset values rather than stampeding for the exits when they realize their shares are worth less than $1. While only one fund “broke the buck” following the 2008 collapse of Lehman, the ensuing panic sucked liquidity out of the money market and amplified the crisis, market watchers said.

As a result of the rule change many investors have exited these so-called prime money funds to pile into funds that are exempt from the new rules because they invest solely in government securities, as the above chart from Slok shows. That means fewer buyers of commercial paper and certificates of deposit, which is reflected in rising Libor:

Fed policy makers are expected to keep rates steady when they conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday, though a minority of central-bank watchers argue that it will be a close call. Stocks ended little changed on Monday, with the S&P 500SPX, +0.00%  virtually flat on the day.

Slok isn’t alone.

“If one is to add [U.S. dollar] strength to a rise in Libor and U.S. Treasury yields and you have a tightening of financial conditions that makes one question why the Fed needs to hike anyhow,” wrote Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief market strategist at IG, in a Monday note to clients.

Indeed, some investors have been making the case for weeks that rising money-market rates would give Fed doves a solid reason to stand their ground, as MarketWatch noted in late August.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-one-big-reason-the-fed-can-wait-to-raise-rates-2016-09-19