經濟停滯的六種最常見解釋

 Sean Ross  2016年9月18日

現在大多數發達國家的經濟增長仍然難以捉摸，並且似乎沒有人能解釋這是因為什麼。1947年到2000年間，美國經濟的年均增長速度為2.2%。而這一數字在2001年到2015年間僅為0.9%。而日本、英國和歐洲的經濟在這期間表現更加糟糕。盡管中央銀行和政府做出了史無前例的經濟刺激政策，但是經濟停滯的現狀並沒有改變。

什麼是經濟停滯？

哈佛大學教授Gregory Mankiw把經濟停滯稱為當代的“經濟病”，前財政部長awrence Summers則把它稱為“長期經濟停止”。盡管一些投資者從資產價格上漲中受益，但是發達國家大多數家庭的實際收入都在持平或者出現下降。

The advisory service Strategic Economic Decisions Inc.（SED） 列出了對2016年經濟停滯狀況的六種常見解釋，這些解釋都來自著名的思想家和公共政策觀察家。SED表示這些解釋都只是個人觀點並可能包含邏輯或者事實錯誤。

1.沒有所謂的經濟停滯

第一個解釋假設的成份比較大。它基於總體經濟統計方式沒有跟上時代的假設。高盛集團經濟學家Jan Hatzius 和 Kris Dawsey指出官方失業率相對較低、企業利潤率和股票估值極高、技術進步顯著。這一觀點聲稱經濟增長速度的下降是一個因為軟體沒有改進出現的統計幻覺。

2.仍然受到經濟大蕭條的影響

考慮到2008和2009年糟糕的經濟情況，奧巴馬執政時期的經濟實際上是相當強勁的。佈魯金斯學會經濟學家Martin Neil Baily認為現在的經濟困難一部分是因為經濟衰退對經濟和投資的影響。美國勞工部的數據顯示1995年到2005年經濟年均增長速度僅為0.3%。

3.長期經濟停滯

Larry Summers重新使用“長期經濟停滯”一詞來形容實際利率長時間的下跌和對資本需求的傷害。這在很多方面都是經典凱恩斯主義的复蘇，即經濟缺乏足夠需求並且從長期供應過剩中受到傷害。Summers說人們對手中的資金過於保守，這導致“長時間非常低的實際利率”、不景氣的增長預期和對通脹能增長到2%以上的能力的擔憂。

4.缺乏創新

一些專家認為美國人創新力不足。西北大學教授和經濟學家Robert Gordon認為1870年到1970年是個不正常時段，很難再恢復那種經濟增長速度。與發明市內自來水、電燈、飛機和空調相比，現在的企業家更多的將精力集中在小巧的機械裝置和軟體上。這一觀點正好與統計謬誤和長期經濟停滯觀點相反，前兩種觀點都強調當代創新的興起。

5.糟糕的政府政策

分別來自米蘭、倫敦、米蘭和波士頓大學的經濟學家Alberto Alesina、Silvia Ardagna、Roberto Perotti和Fabio Schiantarelli在美國國家經濟研究所發佈的數篇論文表明緊縮政策在應對經濟衰退時有最好的結果，而不是政府刺激計劃。從這個角度看來，美國和歐洲2001年起實施的高消費、嚴監管和低利率的政策一直以來都是私營部門的巨大負擔。

6.大政府和大企業的聯合

奧巴馬總統的經濟顧問、白宮經濟學家Jason Furman認為大企業現在可以從大政府中獲得太多的好處。這些好處包括壟斷特權、政府補貼、優惠政策和其他非競爭性優勢。Furman特別引用了在超低利率環境下資本回報率的上升。總而言之，是政府在挑選輸家和贏家，這意味著大公司不再需要提供有吸引力的工資或者用更低的成本贏得市場。

The 6 Most Common Explanations for Economic Stagnation

By Sean Ross | September 18, 2016 — 12:00 PM EDT

Economic growth remains elusive for most of the developed world, and nobody seems to agree about why. Between 1947 and 2000, the U.S. economy grew by an average of 2.2% each year. That slowed to just 0.9% per year between 2001 and 2015. The economies of Japan, the United Kingdom and continental Europe have performed even worse over that span. This widespread economic stagnation endures despite unprecedented stimulus efforts from central banks and governments.

What Is Economic Stagnation?

Harvard professor Gregory Mankiw dubbed economic stagnation the modern "economic sickness," and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers credits it with the term "secular stagnation." While some investors have benefited from rising asset prices, especially those at the top of the income scale, most households in advanced economies have experienced flat or falling real income.

The advisory service Strategic Economic Decisions Inc. (SED) lists six common explanations for 2016's stagnant economic conditions, each drawn from leading thinkers or public policy wonks. The SED is clear that each explanation only represents a partial explanation and many contain logical or factual fallacies.

1. There Is No Economic Stagnation

The first explanation is mostly anecdotal. It rests on the assumption that traditional aggregate measures of the economy have not caught up with the times. As Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) economists Jan Hatzius and Kris Dawsey noted, the official unemployment rate is relatively low, corporate profit margins and stock valuations are extremely high, and technological progress abounds. This view purports that the decline in growth is a statistical mirage that does not account for software improvements.

2. Still Suffering From Great Recession

A common refrain from the outgoing Obama administration is that the economy is actually fairly strong, considering the terrible nature of the Great Recession years of 2008-2009. Brookings Institution economist Martin Neil Baily argues that the economic woes are partially resultant of the recession clobbering the economy and hurting investment. From 1995 to 2005, labor productivity increased 2.5% per year. Between 2010 and 2015, growth was just 0.3% per year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

3. Secular Stagnation

Larry Summers famously revived the old term "secular stagnation" to refer to a period when real long-term interest rates decline and hurt demand for capital. This is in many ways a revival of classic Keynesian arguments: The economy lacks sufficient aggregate demand and suffers from chronic excess supply. People are too conservative with their dollars, says Summers, which results in "very low long-term real rates, sluggish growth expectations, and concerns about the ability even over the fairly long term to get inflation to average 2 percent."

4. Lack of Innovation

Some experts believe that the U.S. population is not innovative enough. Northwestern professor and economist Robert Gordon believes the period between 1870 and 1970 was an aberration, and that level of growth is unlikely to return. Rather than inventing things such as indoor plumbing, electrical lighting, air travel and air conditioning, the modern crop of entrepreneurs is mostly gadget and software-savvy. This view stands in contrast to the statistical mirage and secular stagnation theories, both of which highlight the rise of modern innovation.

5. Bad Public Policy

Economists Alberto Alesina, Silvia Ardagna, Roberto Perotti and Fabio Schiantarelli, professors from Milan, London, Milan and Boston College, respectively, published several working papers through the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that show austerity measures working best in response to recessions, not government stimulus programs. In this light, the high-spending, high-regulation and low-interest-rate policies of the United States and Europe since 2001 have been a chronic burden on the private sector.

6. Marriage Between Big Government and Big Business

White House economist Jason Furman, chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, argues that big businesses can now receive too many favors from big government. These benefits include monopoly privileges, unearned subsidies, preferential government regulations and other noncompetitive advantages. Furman specifically cites rising returns on capital in the face of ultra-low interest rates. In short, the government is picking winners and losers, which means big companies no longer have to offer attractive salaries or lower costs to win in the marketplace.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/091816/6-most-common-explanations-economic-stagnation.asp