美聯儲暫時維持利率不變

美聯儲領導人用“點陣圖”預測出，在未來幾年利率增加的幅度將越來越小，這意味著他們降低了對美國經濟的預期。

點陣圖顯示，2016年只有一次加息，2017年有兩次加息，而不是三次。

聯邦基金利率是美國經濟的潤滑劑，美聯儲將這一短期利率的長期目標從3%降至2.9%。美聯儲計劃在2020年之前都不會超過這一水平。加息的步伐越穩，就越能說明美聯儲委員認識到了經濟不會再向二戰後期那樣迅速地增長了。

自大蕭條結束以來，美國經濟的年增長率始終低於2%，遠低於歷史平均水平3.3%。經濟增長上一次超過3%是在2005年，美國經濟連續十年增長緩慢，這是二戰結束後最久的一次。

這種走勢可能會一直延續下去。今年上半年經濟表現疲軟，美聯儲便將2016美國國内生產總值(GDP)的預期降至1.8%。美聯儲在年初的預期為2.4%，上一次過度樂觀的預測是在2009年中期經濟剛剛複蘇之時。

美聯儲有效基金利率突破2.9%是在20世紀五十年代至六十年代。利率水平如此之低足以說明未來經濟的增長能力不甚樂觀。

最新的點陣圖將美聯儲政策制定者之間的巨大分歧顯露無遺。夏初之時，每一位高級委員都認為年内至少會加息一次，大多數人認為會加息兩次。

現在有三名美聯儲重要委員反對在年内加息，他們顯然對耶倫主席有很大的影響力。

但另外四名美聯儲委員希望在年内加息兩次，其中三人明確地提出了異議。波士頓聯儲、堪薩斯城聯儲及克利夫蘭聯儲主席的主席都投出了反對票。委員們最終以7-3決定維持利率在當前水平不變。如此之多的反對票實屬罕見。

耶倫的難處在於調節鴿派和鷹派之間的矛盾，防止出現進一步分裂。若分裂加劇，投資者們會感到困惑，這很有可能影響到經濟複蘇。但點陣圖顯示，美聯儲未來政策的分歧遠高於2017年。

Fed stands pat on interest rates ‘for time being’

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A “dot plot” used by Federal Reserve leaders to mark their forecasts for interest rates predict fewer increases in the next few years, underscoring diminished expectations for the U.S. economy.

The dot plot points to only one increase in rates in 2016 and just two in 2017 instead of three.

The Fed also trimmed its long-term target for fed funds, a short-term rate that acts as a lubricant for the U.S. economy, to 2.9% from 3%. The central bank doesn’t even expect to reach that level until 2020 at the earliest. Read FOMC statement

The more gradual pace of rate hikes reflects growing recognition on the part of Fed officials that the economy is unlikely to grow as quickly as it has through most of the period following World War Two.

The U.S. had expanded at just under 2% a year since the end of the Great Recession, well below the nation’s historic 3.3% average. The last time the economy grew 3% was in 2005, a 10-year barren stretch that is the longest since the end of World War II.

The dubious streak is about to get extended. After a weak first half of the year, the Fed also cut its estimate for U.S. gross domestic product in 2016 to 1.8%. When the year began, the central bank had estimate 2.4% growth in yet another overoptimistic prediction that has characterized the Fed’s forecasts since a recovery began in mid-2009.

The last time the effective fed funds rate consistently topped out around 2.9% was in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Such a low ceiling now illustrates more pessimism about the economy’s future ability to grow.

The latest dot plot also starkly reveals a sharp rift among Fed policymakers. As the summer got underway, every senior Fed official expected at least one rate increase in 2016 and a majority forecast two.

Now three Fed VIPs oppose any rate hike this year and they clearly held enough sway with Chairwoman Janet Yellen to ensure that the central bank stood pat.

Yet four other Fed members want two rate increases this year, three of whom felt strongly enough to dissent. The presidents of the Boston, Kansas City and Cleveland Federal Reserve all voted no in a 7-3 result. So many dissents at one meeting are rare historically.

The challenge for Yellen is to reconcile the doves and the hawks and prevent the split from getting worse, a outcome that could confuse investors and possibly harm the recovery. Yet the dot plot shows big divergences for future Fed policy well beyond 2017.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-holds-off-interest-rate-hike-but-only-for-the-time-being-2016-09-21