OPEC初步凍產協議之疑慮

石油輸出國組織制定了初步計劃，擬將當前的石油產出速度略微放緩，但交易員們都在讨論這一計劃最終能否產生作用。

Price Futures Group高級市場分析師Phil Flynn說道：“任何產出限制都是大事。”

十四國組織希望將產量限制在每天3250萬桶至3300萬桶之間。OPEC上月的石油報告顯示，當前的產量為每天3324桶。但是產量協議要到11月30日才能完成。

為了達到目標產量，OPEC成員們需要降低當前的原油開採速度。

美國銀行財富管理中心的高級投資策略師Robert Haworth表示：“石油產出減速可能會有些作用，但是市場仍有過剩的美國原油和OECD原油庫存需要處理。”

他說：“目前我們的觀點是，好處是有限的，當油價突破50美元時，石油制造商的熱情會被重新點燃，這限制了油價的進一步上漲。”

分析家指出，石油產出的削減幅度讓人極為震驚。

Huron總經理Scott Cockerham說道：“卡特爾的石油產量減少2%無異於從泰坦尼克號上搬下一張椅子，這對全球供應影響微乎其微。除非OPEC嚴格按照公佈的方法去執行，並制定流程來減少全球的供應量，從而使石油現貨價格恢復至今年第二季度的水平。”

據知情人士透露，OPEC會在11月30日的維也納會議上發佈研究報告結果，公佈減產的具體數值。這表明在接下來的兩個月中，沒有任何協議會生效。

“這總比沒有協議要好一些，市場會時刻關註著他們。”Edward Jones的高級能源分析家Brian Youngberg說：“如果協議今天就能生效，那油價會更高。”

路透社在週三早間報道稱，OPEC可能會公佈石油凍產協議，但協議的細節要在下次會議上公佈。

Schneider Electric 大宗商品分析家Robbie Fraser表示當時的市場情緒非常好。他將這一公告稱為“OPEC有史以來的最佳公告。”

路透社的報道發佈後油價便開始回升，凍產協議正式公佈後油價漲幅更大。

西德州中質原油上幅逾5%，達到三週最高點。佈倫特原油的漲幅也接近6%。

阿爾及利亞國際能源會談的非正式會議是八月初以來最受關註的石油市場大事件。OPEC成員普遍希望對凍產水平進行讨論。

但又很多交易員懷疑凍產協議最終能否實行。

除此之外，OPEC的產量接近了歷史最高點，原油交易員和分析家們懷疑凍產協議能否起到明顯作用。

楊伯格指出，在十一月會議之前，伊朗的石油產量將達到驚人的400萬桶，他們便得償所願了。伊朗曾表示在加入凍產計劃之前先要將產量恢復至制裁前水平。

楊伯格說：“十一月可能會皆大歡喜，但在十一月之前會發生很多事。”

Doubts linger over OPEC’s preliminary deal on oil output

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has a preliminary plan that would cap oil production slightly below its current pace, but traders are debating whether it will make a lasting difference.

“Any production restraint is a big deal,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

The 14-nation group of major oil producers is targeting a production cap that would hold output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day. OPEC’s latest monthly oil report pegged current member output at 33.24 million barrels a day. But the output agreement won’t be completed until at least Nov. 30.

To reach that output target, OPEC members would need to reduce the rate at which they’re producing crude oil.

“This downshift is likely to help” rebalance the global oil market, said Robert Haworth, senior investment strategist with U.S. Bank Wealth Management. But the market will still have to “work through the excess of U.S. and OECD oil inventories.”
“For now our view remains that upside here is limited, with prices above $50 per barrel likely rekindling U.S. oil production and limiting further prices gains,” he said.

The scale of the production cut isn’t terribly impressive, analysts noted.

“A 2% cut in cartel production is a lawn chair off the Titanic with regards to global supply. Unless OPEC follows up with announcements for the methodology of the cut, the specific magnitude of it, and the intent to enact a program that appreciably affects global supply going forward, expect to see the spot price of oil settle back into the range it’s inhabited since the second quarter of this year,” said Scott Cockerham, managing director at Huron.

A study will be done and reported to OPEC at its next official meeting on Nov. 30 in Vienna to figure out exactly how the reductions in output would be implemented, the sources told the newspaper. That essentially means any agreement won’t go into effect for another two months.

“It is better than no agreement, and the market is looking at it that way,” Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at Edward Jones, told MarketWatch. “If it was effective today, oil would be even higher.”

Reuters had reported earlier Wednesday that a deal to cap output might be announced, but with details of any such agreement not set to be released until the next OPEC meeting.

Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, conveyed market sentiment at that time very well. He dubbed that news as “the most OPEC announcement ever.”

Oil prices had rallied when the Reuters report came out, then surged much more when the headline news showed that the potential deal translated into a production cut.

West Texas Intermediate crude CLX6, +0.06%  jumped by more than 5% to settle at a nearly three-week high. Brent crude LCOX6, -0.16%  tacked on almost 6%.

The informal meeting on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria had been the oil market’s most-anticipated event since it was announced in early August. OPEC was widely expected to discuss a freeze on its production levels.

Many traders have their doubts that the deal will stick.

Besides, with OPEC production near record high, oil traders and analysts alike aren’t quite sure if an output agreement will make much difference.

Still, Youngberg pointed out that by the November meeting, “Iran should be near its 4 million barrels per day bogey by then, so they would be where they want to be.” Iran has said that it planned to reach pre-sanction output levels before it would consider participating in a pact to cap production.

So, “November may finally make markets happy, but a lot could happen before then,” said Youngberg.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubts-linger-over-opecs-preliminary-deal-on-oil-output-2016-09-28