油價上漲但缺乏繼續上升動力

亞洲交易時間週二早間，油價在經歷了一夜的下跌之後出現了小幅回升，但交易逐漸趨於平緩，因為市場對石油的定價是以潛在的石油減產為基準的。

在紐約商品交易所，十一月交割的輕質低硫原油期貨價格為每桶50.25美元，上漲0.6%。在倫敦洲際交易所，十二月交割的佈倫特原油價格為每桶51.8美元，上漲0.5%。

原油期貨一夜之間下跌又轉跌為漲，這表明石油輸出國組織成員想要減產1%-2%是很有難度的。

在初步協議公佈後，石油價格便出現了上漲，但是一些市場觀察員認為，當前的市場缺乏大幅上漲的動力支撐。

此外，因為利比亞、伊朗、尼日利亞不參與協議，那麼這些國家石油產量的增加足以抹平其他成員減產的額度。

花旗期貨分析家Tim Evans表示：“這樣一來，OPEC的石油總產量能否減少還尚未可知。OPEC需要制定更強硬的協議才能控制住石油產量。”

此外，截至明年下半年，市場可能仍維持石油供應過剩的局面。他補充道。制定配額的難題之一是某些制造商會在協議中誇大他們的產量。

“石油制造商總想誇大他們的產量，這樣一來，他們需要減產的份額便會減少。”SCI International的能源分析家高健如是說。

在過去的兩年中，原油供應過剩對煉油廠來說是件好事，因為這說明他們降低了成本。但是分析家表示，煉油廠不得不面對緩慢的需求增長、不斷提高的競爭力以及供應過剩的產品。

舉例來講，中國精煉油的出口量較去年有所增長。今年一月到九月，中國石油出口量為3405萬桶，同比激增39%，。中國的石油產品以柴油和汽油為主，大多銷往印度和東南亞。

“中國的精煉油供應過剩會給地區供應商帶來很大的影響，亞洲地區的精煉利潤已經壓縮到了每桶7美元。”野村證券的地區石油汽油調研主管Gordon Kwan說道，“我們很擔心中國燃料油供應過剩會產生的後果。”Kwan先生指出，在2015年亞洲精煉油的利潤為每桶7.7美元。

在紐約商品交易所，十一月交割的新配方汽油合約為每加侖1.5029美元，上漲了105個點，而十一月交割的柴油價格為1.5639美元，上漲了78個點。

在洲際交易所，十一月交付的汽油成交價為每噸463.25美元，較週一上漲了4.75美元。

Oil prices up, but analysts say market has little to keep fueling momentum
 
Crude oil prices clawed back minor gains in early Asia trade Tuesday following an overnight decline but trading is expected to be muted now that the market has priced in a potential production cut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November CLX6, +0.94%  traded at $50.25 a barrel, up $0.31, or 0.6%, in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude LCOZ6, +0.78%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.28, or 0.5%, to $51.80 a barrel.

Oil futures fell overnight amid growing signs it will be difficult for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members to cap future production by 1%-2%, a goal that the group agreed upon in September.

Oil prices have risen since the preliminary deal was announced but some market watchers say the news has been largely priced in and the market now has little fuel to sustain momentum.

Moreover, given that countries like Libya, Iran, and Nigeria are excluded from deal, the expected increases in their production could easily offset reductions from other members.

“This leaves open the possibility that OPEC total production might not see a net decline,” said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst, adding that it will take a “stronger deal” to rein in output.

Otherwise, the market could remain oversupplied at least until the second half of the next year, he added. Part of the difficulty in setting quotas is that producers sometimes overstate their output in negotiations.

“Producers always want to talk up their production levels so they would sustain a smaller cut [in reality] under the deal,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

The glut of crude in the past two years has been good for refiners since it lowered their costs. But analysts say that refiners will face headwinds from sluggish consumption growth, rising competition, and a swelling unwanted supply of product.

For example, China’s exports of refined oil have increased compared with last year. From January through September, China’s oil product exports have surged 39% from the previous year, to 34.05 million metric tons. Most of China’s oil products, namely diesel and gasoline, are being sold to India and southeast Asia.

“China’s refined product oversupply could cast a big overhang for many regional players, with Asia’s refining margin likely to be capped at $7 a barrel,” said Gordon Kwan, head of regional oil and gas research at Nomura. “We are concerned about repercussions from China’s fuel oversupply.” In 2015, the Asia refining margin averaged $7.7 a barrel, according to Mr. Kwan.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November RBX6, +0.60% — the benchmark gasoline contract — rose 105 points to $1.5029 a gallon, while November diesel traded at $1.5639, 78 points higher.

ICE gasoil for November changed hands at $463.25 a metric ton, up $4.75 from Monday’s settlement.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-up-but-analysts-say-market-has-little-to-keep-fueling-momentum-2016-10-18