伊拉克拒絕減產 油價再度下跌

亞洲交易時間週一早間，油價再度下滑，原因是伊拉克拒絕加入OPEC的石油凍產計劃。

在紐約商品交易所，十二月交割的輕質低硫原油期貨價格為每桶50.55美元，下跌0.6%。在倫敦洲際交易所，十二月交割的佈倫特原油成交價為51.54美元，下跌0.5%。

伊拉克石油官員在週末表示，不會縮減石油產量。他們當前的產量為每天477萬桶。伊拉克是OPEC第二大石油制造商，僅次於沙特阿拉伯。如果伊拉克拒絕加入，那麼石油凍產計劃會更難成功。

SCI International能源分析家高健表示：“伊拉克的拒絕可能會引發多米諾效應，致使其他制造商退出凍產計劃。”

澳新銀行研究中心指出：“伊拉克的態度可能會帶來持續的油價壓力。”如果OPEC的內部矛盾越來越多，俄羅斯的態度也會受其影響。俄羅斯最大的石油制造商Rosneft經常說，如有需要，他們有能力擴大生產，但若政府堅持減產，他們也會依令而行。

OPEC成員計劃在11月30日召開會議，讨論配額問題，從而將集團總產量控制在每天3300萬桶以下。但很多市場觀察認為協議會失敗，因為成員們往往不會依照配額生產。

石油價格也正處於壓力之下，因為美國的活躍石油鑽井數量仍在不斷增長之中。美國油田服務公司貝克休斯的數據顯示，上週的石油鑽井數量增加11個，達到了443個。

美國的石油鑽井數量可以視為石油版塊活躍度的標志。鑽井數量在2014年10月達到1609的最高點，此後低迷的油價促使石油產量和鑽井數量急劇減少。摩根士丹利表示，石油鑽井數量在今年夏初開始回升，並有進一步增加的趨勢。

摩根士丹利指出：“石油鑽井數量的變化會比油價滞後三到四個月，我們認為鑽井數量會繼續增加，尤其是在年底。”

投資者們本週都在期待中國的九月原油最終數據，該數據已經推遲了一週。據分析，中國的汽油和柴油出口量將會出現大幅增長，原油進口量也會穩步增加。

在紐約商品交易所，十一月交割的新配方汽油合約價格為每加侖1.5214美元，下跌了100個點。十一月交割的柴油價格為1.5697美元，下跌了43個點。

在洲際交易所，十一月交割的汽油價格為每噸463.25美元，較週五下跌了1.25美元。

Oil prices fall after Iraq says it won’t scale back output

 Oil prices slipped in early Asian trade Monday on signs that the production cut plan proposed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could face more headwinds after Iraq signalled it wants to be excluded from the pact.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December CLZ6, -0.53%  traded at $50.55 a barrel, down $0.30, or 0.6%, in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude LCOZ6, -0.39%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.24, or 0.5%, to $51.54 a barrel.

Iraqi oil officials over the weekend were reported to have said they would not scale back output which currently stands at 4.77 million barrels a day. Iraq is the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and a collective production cut would be harder to achieve without it on board, said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

“There is a risk that Iraq’s refusal could trigger a domino effect that other producers would ask to be exempt from the cuts too,” he added.

ANZ Research said Iraq’s comments will likely keep oil prices under pressure for the session. Analysts say rising discords within OPEC could potentially fluster Russia’s participation in the cut. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft recently said it has the capacity to expand production if necessary, and would only curb if the government instructs it to do so.

OPEC members are scheduled to meet on November 30 to discuss individual production quotas, in order to limit the group’s production under 33 million barrels a day. However, many market observers are bracing for the deal to flop given the members’ track record of not complying to the quotas.

Oil prices are also under pressure as the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. continue to climb. Last week, the oil-rig count rose by 11 to 443, according to oil-field services company Baker Hughes.

The U.S. oil-rig count is typically viewed as a proxy for activity in the sector. After peaking at 1,609 in October 2014, low oil prices put downward pressure on production and the rig count fell sharply. The oil-rig count has generally been rising since the beginning of the summer and the uptrend is likely to continue, Morgan Stanley said in a note.

“Rig count typically lags prices by three to four months, so we would expect to see more rigs added, especially near year-end,” the bank said.

Investors this week will be watching for China’s final September oil data which was postponed last week. The data is expected to show a surge in China’s gasoline and diesel exports as well as a steady rise in the country’s imports of crude.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November RBX6, -0.29%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 100 points to $1.5214 a gallon, while November diesel traded at $1.5697, 43 points lower.

ICE gasoil for November changed hands at $463.25 a metric ton, down $1.25 from Friday’s settlement.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-after-iraq-says-it-wont-s