技術分析

一、技術分析
1、什麼是技術分析？
技術分析或“圖表”是通過對金融市場價格和成交量的研究來預測他們未來表現。我特意用了“預期”，而不是“預告”或“預言”：市場隨時可能向上或向下，不同的只是每一步的可能性。
技術分析—不是精密的科學 。技術分析不應該被用作預測，因為我們從來不會百分百的知道一個特定的形態或者一系列情況的最終結果。最多，我們只是能通過技術分析得到某一情況的80%可能性，這意味著總有20%意想不到的可能性總會發生。
我的方法是分析這些可能性的百分比，這意味著一定程度的精確性，而這種精確性通常是無法實現的。大多數情況下，我們可以得出至少有三分之二的可能性會向某一方向移動。這就足夠讓一個好的交易者在市場上脫穎而出。
2、技術分析的基礎
技術分析基於以下三點理念：
• 價格反映市場的一切：所有重要的政治、經濟信心都將反映在市場價格上。
• 價格波動有趨勢性：一個多世紀前的查爾斯•道的“道理論”就是建立在對趨勢的觀察之上。
• 歷史往往會重演：最基本的人性是不會變化的，而市場正是反映了所有參與者行為的總和並遵循可識別的走勢。
3、技術分析真的有效嗎？
一些學術研究宣稱金融市場上的價格波動完全是隨機的、沒有可識別的形態。而另外一些研究表明買單和賣單不是隨機分配的—它們通常集中在主要的價格線週圍，即支撐和阻力位。技術分析也受到大量的中短線交易者的青睞---這說明技術分析具有實際應用價值
阻力和支撐是經典技術分析的基礎：交易者在關鍵價位買賣的行為。趨勢理論就是建立在價格在主要阻力和支撐位的表現之上。類似的，圖表形態也是在阻力和支撐位上鑒別交易者行為。
4、技術指標
交易者需要在對基本概念有深入的了解之後，進而學習技術指標和更加複雜的圖表形態。
在學習技術指標之前，你要確保自己擁有紮實的技術分析基礎。技術指標的作用就是通過不同方式總結價格和成交量的關系來突出重要的部分。要記住的是，每當你做出總結的時候，你總會有所失。技術指標所能做的只是把最主要的數據關系通過更加可讀的方式呈現出來，同時別的關系都將被忽略。
技術指標，使用得好就是有用和重要的工具，但它們不是“聖杯”。體現所有數據的總是價格和成交量表。
二、阻力和支撐
阻力和支撐是絕大多數圖表的基礎。
1、支撐
支撐位是買家想從賣家手中奪回市場的主導權的價格線
市場有“記憶力”。當價格創新低後便會回升，買家錯過第一輪的低點後，如果再次達到該低點時，買家便有可能集結起來從賣家手中奪回控制權。結果就是價格上升並創造出市場關於支撐位的概念。
 
2、阻力
當價格達到新高並回調的時候，賣家會在價格再次達到該價位時進場。因害怕錯過第二次機會，他們會以足夠的賣方力量壓倒買方。這時市價格不可能進一步上升並創造出阻力位的概念。
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點數圖可以很好的幫您識別支撐和阻力位。
3、角色互換
價格一旦突破支撐位，通常情況下支撐就會變成阻力，反之亦然。
市場的邏輯很簡單：在支撐位進場的買家，他們很有可能在價格反彈至盈虧平衡點平倉以挽回損失。這種情況下，支撐位就變成了阻力位。
 
同樣，當價格遇到阻力位卻沒有反彈時，這會讓很多提前平倉的交易者失望。如果價格重新回到支撐位，因為害怕錯失機會，他們也很有可能向相反方向進場。阻力位因此就變成了支撐位。
4、支撐和阻力的識別
支撐和阻力線比別的價格線要重要得多，下面是辨別支撐和阻力位的重要方法：
• 該價位被認為是阻力和支撐位的次數
• 靠近該價位的成交量
• 該價位是新的還是舊的----通常新形成的支撐和阻力位會發揮更重要的作用
• 該價位是否是新高或新低---更極端的價格水平會有更大的影響
• 是否是整數價位

Technical Analysis
What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis or "charting" is the study of price and volume behavior in financial markets in order to anticipate their future performance. I have deliberately used the word "anticipate" rather than "forecast" or "predict":
The market can go up or down at any time -- it is only the probability (of each move) that varies.
Technical Analysis - Not An Exact Science

Technical Analysis should not be used to make predictions because we never know the outcome of a particular pattern or series of events with 100 per cent certainty. The best that we can hope to achieve is a probability of around 80 per cent for any particular outcome, which means that something unexpected will occur at least one in five times.

My approach is to assign probabilities to each possible outcome. Assigning actual percentages would imply a degree of precision which, is normally unachievable. Most of the time, however, we can tell that price is at least twice as likely to move in a certain direction, as it is to move in the other. That is sufficient edge for a good trader to out-perform the general market.

Foundations of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is based on three basic beliefs:
• Price discounts everything.
All fundamental, political and economic information available to the market is reflected in the price.
• Price tends to move in trends.
Charles Dow developed the Dow Theory based on his empirical observation of trends more than a century ago.
• History tends to repeat itself.
Basic human nature does not change and the market, reflecting the sum of all participants actions, behaves in identifiable patterns.
Does Technical Analysis Really Work?
Some academic studies claim that price movements in financial markets are entirely random, with no recognizable pattern. Other studies have shown that buy and sell orders are not randomly distributed -- they tend to cluster around key price levels in the market -- the basic tenet of support and resistance.
Technical analysis further enjoys the support of large numbers of short- and medium-term traders -- evidence of its practical application.
Support and Resistance
The foundation of all classical technical analysis is support and resistance: the behavior of buyers and sellers at key price levels. Trend theory is based on the performance of price at key support and resistance levels. Chart patterns similarly identify the behavior of buyers in relation to support and resistance.
Learning About Technical Analysis
It is important to build a sound understanding of the basic concepts before progressing to indicators and more complex chart patterns.
Indicators
Ensure that you have a sound grasp of technical analysis before moving on to indicators.
All that indicators do is summarize price and volume behavior in different ways to highlight important features. Bear in mind that whenever you summarize you sacrifice. All that an indicator does is to present a particular feature of the data in a more readable format -- while eliminating all other features.
Indicators, in the right hands, are useful and important tools but they are not the holy grail. The big picture, presenting all the data, is always the price and volume chart.
Support and Resistance
Support and resistance form the foundation of most chart patterns.
Support
A support level is the price at which buyers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to takecontrol from sellers.
The market has a memory. When price falls to a new Low and then rallies, buyers who missed out on the first trough will be inclined to buy if price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out for a second time, they may enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from sellers. The result is a rally, reinforcing perceptions that price is unlikely to fall further and creating a support level.
 
Resistance
A resistance level is the price level at which sellers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from buyers.
When price makes a new High and then retreats, sellers who missed the previous peak will be inclined to sell when price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out a second time, they may enter the market in numbers sufficient to overwhelm buyers. The resulting correction will reinforce market perceptions that price is unlikely to move higher and establish a resistance level.
 
Point and figure charts are useful for identifying support and resistance levels.
Role Reversal
Support levels, once penetrated, frequently become resistance levels and vice versa.
The market logic is fairly simple: buyers who purchase near a support level, only to see price fall, are likely to sell in order to recover their losses, when price rallies to near their break-even point. The support level then becomes a resistance level.
 
Likewise, stockholders who sell when price approaches a resistance level will be disappointed if price penetrates the level and continues to rise. They will be inclined to buy if price returns to near the support level, fearing that they may miss out a second time. The resistance level thus becomes entrenched as a support level.
Strength of Support/Resistance
Some support and resistance levels are more important than others. The significance of the support level is identifiable by:
• the number of times that the level has been respected;
• the amount of volume that has been traded near the level;
• whether the level is old or new - recent levels have greater significance;
• whether the level is a new High or new Low - more extreme levels have greater impact; or
• a level formed at a round number (e.g. $20.00 or $100.00) leaves a lasting imprint.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來自：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/technical_analysis.php
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/support_resistance.php