石油行業的每一個人都感到了緊縮。
就在一年前，一桶西德克薩斯原油價格超過100美元。去年10月份，價格也在90美元一桶。接下來的三個月之後，一桶原油價格減半至45美元，最低價達到43美元，這是金融危機之後的價格最低點。生活成本危機的恐懼被價格快速下降及通貨緊縮的擔憂取代。市場對一波又一波的石油公司倒閉充耳不聞。
然而，從那時起，價格大幅上漲。每桶價格又回到60美元。很明顯，不是100美元，但這卻是從低點的一次有力反彈。這給我們留下兩大問題：發生了什麼？石油價格會進一步上漲嗎？
沙特與頁岩油生產商的戰争
導致去年石油價格下跌的一個關鍵因素是沙特政府忽略OPEC石油輸出國對石油減產的呼籲。沙特政府沒有看到任何向其競争對手割讓市場份額的理由。它們能嘗到價格降低帶來的痛苦，而別人不會。
它們這麼做一部分傷害了勁敵伊朗以及伊朗同盟俄羅斯。同時也是導致美國頁岩油生產商破產的一個長期戰略。美國頁岩油的崛起是對沙特能源控制權的一個最大的長期威脅——事實上，美元已經取代沙特阿拉伯成為世界上最大的石油生產國。
這一策略似乎有效果。大部分的主要頁岩油生產企業已經減少了勘探。對於那些反應遲緩的公司，銀行已經強制性減少了它們的信貸額度。
因此，美國作業的鑽井平台數量已經降至900個。這只是去年的一半，也是近五年來的最低值。並且，數量仍有減少的趨勢。能源投資者T Boone Pickens認為油價應該會上漲至70美元一桶才不會導致石油公司的虧損。
頁岩油生產商並不是唯一一個有問題的公司——企業盈利年份不可避免地對成本控制不嚴格——石油行業的每一個人都感覺到了緊縮。員工成本被降低。大約75%的北海石油生產商進行了裁員以及削減工時。設備支出暫時擱置——全球所有的主要石油公司都削減了資本支出。
勘探預算也被壓縮。能源分析師Wood Mackenzie認為他們今年平均會下降30%。這些開支的削減不僅會降低今天的石油產量，同時也會減少未來幾年的石油供應量。
中東的緊張局勢
石油價格小幅上升的另一個原因是中東的緊張局勢。過去的兩個月中，沙特阿拉伯與伊朗一直在為控制也門而戰争。情況很複雜，因為基地組織的第三方派系也參與了進去。
然而，這可以歸結如下：伊朗支持已經控制了大部分也門的胡塞叛軍。同時，沙特聯合政府正在採取直接行動捍衛官方政府權力。
雖然戰争的過程中有短暫停火，但絲毫沒有停止的迹象。胡賽軍隊開始攻擊沙特與伊朗邊界的城鎮。同時，有報道稱沙特地面部隊即將進駐也門。專家警告說，這有可能導致中東地區的主要兩個大國之間的大規模沖突，並最終擾亂石油供應。
會重新加大生產嗎？
反彈是否會持續？畢竟，幾天前，高盛(Goldman Sachs)發佈報告稱有可能會再次下跌，因為美國的頁岩油生產商會重新進入市場。資本經濟的朱利安•傑瑟普(Julian Jessop)表示贊同：“價格在年内下降的可能性更大。”
然而，這可能過於樂觀（或悲觀，取決於你是石油生產者還是消費者）。盡管一些頁岩生產商在石油價格高於60美元時可以盈利，但是大部分需要石油價格位於70~75美元（甚至更多）才會盈利。削減產量的勢頭有可能持續，而不是重回市場。
同時，中國刺激經濟增長（中國政府在週末再次降息）的同時也增加了對石油的需求。即使價格沒有從這裡上升，現在的價格也已經十分接近低點。
How to profit from the oil price rally
Matthew Partridge, 2015.5.13
Everyone in the oil business is feeling the squeeze
Exactly a year ago, the price of a barrel of West Texas oil was over $100. Even as late as early October, it cost $90.
Then, in the space of just over three months, the oil price halved to $45. At one point in March, it was just $43, a level not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Fears over a ‘cost of living crisis’ were replaced by concerns about sliding prices and deflation. Markets held their breath for a wave of oil-company collapses.
Yet since then, the price has rallied sharply. It’s back to around $60 a barrel. Sure, it’s not $100, but it’s a major rebound from the low.
That leaves us with two big questions: why is it happening? And will oil rally further?
The Saudi war of attrition on shale producers
One key factor driving oil prices lower last year was that the Saudi government ignored calls from other members of the Opec oil cartel to cut production. The Saudis didn’t see any reason why they should cede market share to their rivals. They could take the pain of lower prices. Others couldn’t.
They did this partly to hurt arch-rival Iran and its ally Russia. But it was also part of a long-term strategy to put US shale oil producers out of business. The rise of US shale oil is one of the biggest long-term threats to Saudi control of the energy market – in fact, last year the US overtook Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.
The strategy seems to be working. Most of the major shale companies have cut back on exploration. Where firms have been slow to act, banks have forced them to do so by cutting their credit lines.
As a result, the number of working rigs in the US has fallen to 900. That’s down 50% on a year ago, and it’s the lowest figure for nearly five years. And the cuts aren’t over yet. Energy investor T Boone Pickens reckons the industry needs prices to rise sustainably to around $70 a barrel before firms stop losing money on every drop they take out of the ground.
Shale oil producers aren’t the only ones having problems – after the bonanza years and the lax cost controls they inevitably led to, everyone in the oil business is feeling the squeeze.
Staff costs are being cut. Around 75% of North Sea oil producers have shed staff and reduced working hours. Investment in equipment is on hold – all the major global oil companies have cut capital spending.
And exploration budgets are being squeezed. Energy analyst Wood Mackenzie reckons they will fall by an average of 30% this year. These spending cuts will not only hit today’s production levels, but will also reduce supply for years to come.
The ever-present tension in the Middle East
The other reason for oil prices inching higher again has been rising tension in the Middle East. For the past two months, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting a proxy war for control of Yemen. The situation is complicated, since there’s also a third faction, which is allied to Al Qaeda.
However, it boils down to this: Iran is backing the Houthi rebels, which now control most of the country. At the same time, a Saudi-led coalition is taking direct action to defend the official government.
While there has been a temporary pause in fighting, few expect it to hold. Houthi forces have begun attacking Saudi towns on the border between the two countries. Meanwhile, there are reports that Saudi ground troops are about to enter Yemen. Experts warn this could lead to a wide conflict between the Middle East’s two main powers that could end up disrupting oil supplies.
Won’t production just start up again?
Can the rally last? After all, a few days ago, Goldman Sachs released a report arguing that prices may start to fall again as US producers are tempted back into the market. Julian Jessop of Capital Economics agrees: “prices are now more likely to fall than to rise over the remainder of the year”.
However, this may be overly hopeful (or pessimistic, depending on whether you’re an oil producer or consumer). While some shale oil firms can make money if prices move above $60, others need $70-$75, or even more, if they are to remain profitable. The momentum may remain with cutting back, rather than re-entering the market.
At the same time, there is evidence that China’s growing stimulus efforts (it cut interest rates again at the weekend) are boosting its demand for oil. Even if the price doesn’t surge from here, it looks like the low may be in at least.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://moneyweek.com/how-to-profit-from-the-oil-price-rally/